FXUS61 KLWX 201953 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 253 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL TRACK EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN RETURNING TO THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... THE COMBO OF THE LOW WELL OFF THE CST AND HIGH PRES IN THE MS VLLY MOVG EWD WL ALLOW THE WINDS TO STAY UP TNGT. THIS WL ALLOW FOR CONT SNSH IN THE MTNS TNGT...ALTHO AM NOT GOING TO HIGH ENUF ON POPS OR AMTS TO JUSTIFY AN ADVSRY. HOWEVER...HIGHEST GUSTS ARE XPCTD ALONG THE WRN HIGHLANDS...AND COMBINED W/ CONT COLD TEMPS THIS WL LEAD TO SUB -5 WIND CHILLS OVRNGT. AS SUCH WL BE PUTTING UP A WIND CHILL ADVSRY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVS. W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING IN OVRNGT XPCTG SKIES TO BE CLRG. LOWS WL BE 10-20 W/ XCPTN OF HIGHEST WRN ELEVS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES WL BRING ABT M SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA WED. TEMPS 30-35 E OF 1-81...MU20S W. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT LATE WED...W/ LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND L20S ACROSS THE MID ATLC...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WX-WISE. TEMPS WILL BECOME MORE SEASONAL WITH A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE SRN SEABOARD WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE SE COAST ON THURS. BACK ACROSS THE GRT LKS REGION...A WEAK LOW EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ESE OVER THE SRN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE W/ THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS THRU THE DAYTIME HRS FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE W/ A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT LR MODELS ARE BACK/FORTH W/ HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP REACHES. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM NOT AT ALL IN AGREEMENT W/ EACH OTHER /OR THEIR OWN PREV RUNS/ ABOUT MUCH OF THE EVENTS BEYOND THIS COMING SAT. ONE ISSUE THAT THROWS OFF EACH SOLN IS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS A DAY FASTER ON THE GFS THAN THE EUROPEAN...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN ROCKIES CLEARLY TAKES A NORTHERN ROUTE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS LEANS TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND CONTINUES THE TREND ON THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND SUBSEQUENT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF QUICKER TO DEVELOP ACTIVITY PUSH OF OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT. FOR THIS PACKAGE...STRAYED AWAY FROM BUYING MUCH MORE THAN A BLEND OF POSSIBILITIES OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THAT...A MAINLY DRY AND MUCH LESS WINDY FORECAST THAN MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH. && .AVIATION /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LAYER OF SC 035-040 IS XPCTD TO LAST INTO THE EVE HRS...THEN SKIES CLR OUT OVRNGT. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT THRU RMDR OF DAYLGT HRS. NOT MUCH WIND OR WX CONCERN THRU THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND OR EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO PASS FAR SOUTH OR NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE QUICKLY THRU THE NORTHEAST LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY...WHILE ANOTHER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... SCA WL BE IN EFFECT TNGT AND MUCH OF DAY ON WED. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY. POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR OR BELOW SCA CRIT THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501. VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ021. WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ054- 501-503. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>537. && $$ PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS