FXUS61 KCLE 201803
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
103 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WELL OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MIX OF CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A HURON FETCH AND
SOME DRIER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALOFT WITH LATEST MODELS SHOWING
DOWNWARD MOTION MOST OF THE DAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...CLE METRO
AREA SEEING MOST OF THE SNOW THIS MORNING...WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM JUST WEST OF CLE ALONG THE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AND INLAND. A FLURRY POSSIBLE WEST. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET
ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION TODAY...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE SNOW
WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CLOUDS
TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALSO TRICKY TODAY.
CURRENTLY READINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TODAY WITH AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS BEING THE DECIDING
FACTOR. WILL END UP GOING WITH HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS SIMILAR TOO OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET. MOISTURE LEVELS GO DOWN TONIGHT
AS SURFACE RIDGING OCCURS. WINDS WILL BECOME SW BY 06Z AND EXPECT
THIS TO BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
WILL DIVE SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY IN THE SNOWBELT AND MORE SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
IN THE SNOWBELT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WARM UP WITH A
FEW DEGREE JUMP ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS POSSIBLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING ON THURSDAY. LATEST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH SUGGESTS LOCAL AREA
WILL BE DRY. CURRENTLY HAVE SMALL POPS IN FORECAST AND TILL MODELS
ARE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY NOT COMFORTABLE REMOVING PRECIP
MENTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AREA COULD ALSO GETS SOME
PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE
SEASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EUROPEAN APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED 
BY HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER 
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND THIS SHOULD SET UP A WEST TO EAST FETCH 
OVER LAKE ERIE.  EVEN THOUGH ICE COVERS THE LAKE...THERE ARE STILL 
SOME CRACKS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE ICE TO DEVELOP SOME 
SNOW BANDS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SHORE AREAS ON SUNDAY. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE. 
HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST SHIFTING FLOW UP THE LAKE AND OUT OF THE 
AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND RETURN 
TO FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION...ALBEIT A RETURN TO COLDER 
TEMPERATURES. 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING 
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO THE FRIGID 
LEVELS OF HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS TO TEENS. SOME SLIGHT WARMING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH 
HIGHS BACK TO THE UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AIDED BY A LAKE HURON FETCH. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SLOW DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
WINDS SLOWLY BACK AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. IN THE MEANTIME
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EAST...VFR FAR WEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT ENTIRE AREA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY. VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MIXED PRECIP AND NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
THURSDAY. PERIOD OF VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
ACTUALLY...FAIRLY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER 
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT BY SATURDAY 
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE 
THAN 25 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...LOMBARDY