FXUS61 KCAR 200935
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
435 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. 
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPR AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPR LEVEL TROF
ACROSS ERN PORTION OF THE NATION. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AREA 
OF SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH S/WV MOVING NE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE INDICATED SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH ISLD FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. S/WV WILL EXIT TO
THE NE OF THE REGION THIS MRNG WITH M/CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS
AFTN.
ANOTHER S/WV WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE NW FLOW ALFT THIS
EVENING WITH ISLD FLURRIES POSSIBLE THRU ERLY EVENING. EXPECT
PARTIAL CLRG BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY PARTIAL CLRG
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN SOME PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY ERLY MRNG. NOTED TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS WRN
QUEBEC PROVINCE WELL BELOW ZERO THIS MRNG THUS LEANED WITH COLDER
GFS40BC NOS FOR MINS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IN THIS TERM WILL BE THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS FCST
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO USE A A BLEND OF
THE GFS/GMOS AND SREF FOR THE POPS. THIS BLEND GIVES 50-60% POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA ON THURSDAY. WAA FROM 925-850MBS COUPLED W/A
STG MID-LVL JET WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. X-SECTIONS SUPPORT THIS BANDING
SETUP AS WELL. HENCE...THE REASON TO BOOST THE POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS. THURSDAY WILL FEEL QUITE
MILD AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW AND MID 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH W/UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TWO MAIN CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THIS TERM DEALING W/A LOW PRES
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST BY THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FIRST THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE BUILDING IN REGARDS TO THIS
FEATURE THAT IS PROGGED BY ALL THE GUIDANCE NOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY. PUSHED POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY ESP THE NORTHERN 1/2
OF THE CWA WHERE BEST FORCING IS SITUATED. SOME ACCUMULATION IS 
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. 
SECOND IS THE NEXT WAVE OF ARCTIC AIR THAT IS POISED TO DROP FROM
CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW 925-850MBS TEMPERATURES IN THE -25 TO -32C
RANGE RESPECTIVELY POINTING TO SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE AS COLD AS THE RECORD
SETTING ONE LAST WEEKEND. GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
WERE GENERALLY ACCEPTED W/SOME MINOR TWEAKING FOR SUNDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. GMOS POPS WERE
PUSHED BACK W/HIGH PRES SET TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CONDS IN SCT SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NRN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM: ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS IN SE SWELL THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE SAC
FOR SEAS THRU TNGT.
SHORT TERM: THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
AGAIN BY SATURDAY W/THAT ARCTIC AIRMASS POISED TO MOVE IN. USED
THE GFS/NAM12 BLEND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHOSE A GMOS/GFS BLEND
FOR THE WINDS. COULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONDITIONS NEAR GALES
BY LATE SATURDAY W/THAT VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE WATERS. TOOK THE WNAWAVE4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/HEWITT