AGNT40 KWNM 201326 MIMATN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 731 AM EST TUE 20 JAN 2009 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. LOW PRES NOW 110 NM S OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE NT2 WATERS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO STORM FORCE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE E OF THE OUTER WATERS. AT 12Z THE PSN OF THE LOW WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE 06Z GFS AND JUST N OF THE ECMWF. THE OTHER MODELS WERE EITHER SLIGHTLY E OR S. AT 995 MB THE LOW ALSO IS THE SAME AS THE GFS WHILE ALL THE OTHER MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM ARE WEAKER. THE LATEST QSCAT PASS HAD GALE FORCE WINDS S OF CAPE FEAR AND OVER THE FAR E PORTION OF CAPE FEAR TO CAPE HATTERAS. FOR THE UPDATE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE TREND KEEPING THE GALE WARNING BUT NOT INC TO STORM. ALSO FOR GEORGES BANK THE BUFKIT IS NOW SHOWING ONLY 30 KT SO LOW CONFDC IN THE GALE. THE TRACK OF THE LOW LOOKS VERY CONSTANT WITH MORE THAN ONE MODEL SHOWING MULTIPLE CENTERS. PLAN TO KEEP THE WARNING FOR GEORGES BANK WITH THE FAR SE PORTION STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF GALE. --------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOW PRES NOW NR THE S CAROLINA COAST IS POISED TO MOV OFSHR AND BCM THE MAJOR PLAYER OVER THE SHORT TERM. THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS/GEFS/GEM/UKMET ALL MAINTAIN RSNBL RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IN RGRDS TO BOTH THEIR FCST TRACK AND FCST DEEPENING OF THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS NE ACRS THE NT2 WTRS TODAY INTO TONITE. THE 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH FCST MULTIPLE CENTERS DVLPG WHICH MAY INDEED COME TRUE BUT WL NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL FCST SIGLY. FOR NOW PLAN ON FAVORING A BLENDED 00Z GFS/UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF FCST TRACK FOR THIS LOW. WITH THE ASCD UPR LVL S/W TROF FCST TO SHEAR IN STRONG SWLY UPR FLOW...AGREE WITH THE LATEST MDL CONSENSUS THAT THE SFC LOW WL DEEPEN ONLY SLOWLY. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND WITH THE LOW FCST TO TRACK INVOF THE GULF STREAM AS IT CROSSES THE NT2 WTRS AM CONCERNED THAT WITH THE ADDED BAROCLINICITY THE MDLS ARE NOT DEEPENING THE SFC LOW ENUF. WITH THE MDLS FCSTG CONSISTENT GRADIENTS INVOF THIS DVLPG SFC LOW DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING THE PREVLY FCST TIMING OR AREAL COVERAGE OF ASCD GALE WRNGS. IT STIL THO LOOKS VERY QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER GALES WL DVLP ACRS THE GEORGES BANK WTRS IMMED NW OF THE LOW TUE NITE. BUT WITH MR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW PSBL...FOR NOW WL CONT WITH THE PREVLY FCST GALES THERE. SO OVERALL NO MAJOR CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS RGRDG THIS SYSTEM. IN THE LONG RANGE...AS THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO BCM MR ZONAL THE MDLS DVLP TIMING DIFFERENCES RGRDG A NRN STREAM DVLPG SFC LOW PASSING E NR THE NRN MOST NT1 WTRS LATE FRI/FRI NITE WHL THEN PULLING A COLD FRONT OFSHR INTO SAT. THE 00Z GLOBAL GEM AND UKMET ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE FCST ENVELOPE WHL THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE ON THE SLOWER SIDE. VS ITS PREV 18Z RUN...THE 00Z GFS IS NOW SIGLY SLOWER WITH ITS FCST TRACK AND THE 00Z GEFS INDICATES THAT THE 00Z GFS MAY BE SMWHT TOO FAST ON FRI. WITH THE 00Z GFS TRENDING TWDS THE OLD 12Z ECMWF...PLAN ON GOING WITH ITS SOLUTION...SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY INITIALLY...FOR THIS SYSTEM. PER THE 00Z GFS BL WIND FCSTS...POSTFRONTAL NWLY GALES LOOK PSBL SAT ACRS THE NT1 AND NE MOST NT2 WTRS. CONSIDERING THE IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION FCST BHND THE COLD FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE 12Z ECMWF FCST MR RAPID DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW THAN THE GFS ON SAT...AM LEANING TWDS ADDING THESE GALES. BUT FOR NOW WL WAIT TO SEE THE 00Z ECMWF AND IF IT RMNS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREV 12Z RUN...ONLY THEN WL GO AHEAD AND PUT THESE GALES IN THE NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE. OVERALL THE 00Z WNA AND MWW WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS LOOK RSNBL. INITIALLY THO DUE TO S-SE SWELL THE MDLS ARE RUNNING SVRL FT TOO LOW OVER THE NT1 AND NE NT2 WTRS. SO WL ADJUST ITS FCST SEAS ACRDGLY THERE OVER THE IMMED SHORT TERM. .WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... .GULF OF MAINE...GALE SAT...LOW CONFDC. .GEORGES BANK...GALE TUE NGT...LOW CONFDC. GALE SAT...LOW CONFDC. .S OF NEW ENGLAND...GALE SAT...LOW CONFDC. .NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... .HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...NONE. .BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...GALE THIS AFT INTO WED...HI CONFDC. GALE SAT...LOW CONFDC. .BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE THIS AFT AND TNGT...HI CONFDC. .HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE THIS AFT INTO TNGT..HI CONFDC. .CAPE FEAR TO 31N...GALE THIS AFT INTO TNGT...HI CONFDC. .FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.