Expires:No;;365539
WTPA41 PHFO 121143
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012008
1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KIKA/S EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE CENTER ONLY PARTIALLY
EXPOSED...AND GIVING KIKA A SLIGHTLY BETTER SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP LED TO SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THOSE COLD TOPS ARE
NOW WARMING. KIKA REMAINS A WEAK CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AS A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTS KIKA AS AN OPEN WAVE. 
KIKA IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. KIKA/S INABILITY TO ORGANIZE UNDER THE SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MEANS THAT IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KIKA WILL DEVELOP UNDER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITHIN 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE PERSISTENTLY STUBBORN SHIPS MODEL...WHICH
FORECASTS KIKA TO BE A TYPHOON IN 120 HOURS. ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
KIKA/S DISSIPATING CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...AND KIKA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AS A VIABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GIVEN THAT KIKA WILL BE WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 
TROPOSPHERE...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST 
AS IT APPROACHES THE DATE LINE. 
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER 
ON KIKA...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 11.2N 171.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 11.5N 173.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 11.7N 176.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 12.0N 178.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD