[top]
000
FXUS65 KABQ 082241 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH AND LAST WORD OF THE AVIATION SECTION.
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...
BUT PROVIDE A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS IN THE FINER DETAILS. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE NEAR TERM AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT AS A FLATTENING RIDGE TO THE WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS TODAY...GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE MUCH AWAITED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE TOWARD LAS VEGAS
NEVADA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WRN NM
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LOWERED POPS A
TAD AND FOCUSED THEM OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY
HELP WITH THE TOP-DOWN MOISTENING EFFECT INTO THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
TEMPS WILL BE FINICKY AS MANY FACTORS WILL BE INVOLVED. THICK CIRRUS
SHOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING SOLAR. MEANWHILE...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN S/SW FLOW TO
OVERCOME THE REDUCED SOLAR ENERGY. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE EXCLUDING THE FAR WRN ZONES. UPPER LOW SHOULD MIGRATE E
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NM SUN NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR QPF WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM
THE UPPER GILA REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD MIGRATE NORTHWARD IN
THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...IT
MAY CLIP THE EC/SE ZONES AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL
AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE SEGREGATED ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. ATTM...FEEL ONE
HALF TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NRN MTS. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
LATEST HPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOS GUIDANCE
LOWERED SPEEDS...BUT WILL DISREGARD DUE TO A 70 KT 500MB JET SLIDING
ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
DISTURBANCE WILL DEPART THE AREA LATE MON AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANOTHER
LOBE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE A WEAKER WAVE AND WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL IMPACT OUTSIDE OF THE NRN MTS AND NE PLAINS. COOL AIR SHOULD
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CHASE THE
INITIAL WAVE. LARGE SPREAD IS NOTED WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON
HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVED OVER THE STATE. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
THE MOST BULLISH AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPR LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH INHERITED ISOLATED POPS TUE INTO WED...BUT FUTURE
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK ACCORDING TO UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND NEAR KCQC.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED BY MIDDAY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE WILL RESPOND DURING PEAK MIXING
AND MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AZ BORDER
AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED LOCALES MAY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND
INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE STATE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...NEW MEXICO WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US. 34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 29 57 33 50 / 0 10 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 22 57 28 51 / 0 10 50 10
GRANTS.......................... 19 61 29 51 / 0 0 40 10
GLENWOOD........................ 25 68 32 62 / 0 5 30 5
CHAMA........................... 19 51 25 45 / 0 10 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 56 31 48 / 0 0 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 19 47 23 39 / 0 5 30 30
TAOS............................ 21 55 26 47 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 25 58 30 52 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 59 31 52 / 0 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 24 61 31 55 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 61 39 56 / 0 0 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 62 36 58 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 60 38 55 / 0 0 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 62 37 58 / 0 0 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 27 66 37 61 / 0 0 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 54 31 50 / 0 0 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 63 31 54 / 0 0 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 64 37 59 / 0 0 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 27 58 33 53 / 0 0 10 5
RATON........................... 24 61 29 49 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 61 30 49 / 0 0 20 10
ROY............................. 31 61 33 50 / 0 0 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 31 62 35 51 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 69 39 61 / 0 0 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 30 70 40 61 / 0 0 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 69 39 65 / 0 0 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 33 67 42 65 / 0 0 20 5
PORTALES........................ 30 69 39 68 / 0 0 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 29 72 42 70 / 0 0 10 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
46/34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 082223
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON...
BUT PROVIDE A PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS IN THE FINER DETAILS. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THE NEAR TERM AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERS FOR
THE LATTER PERIODS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT AS A FLATTENING RIDGE TO THE WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR WARMER READINGS TODAY...GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH
CLOUDS START TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE MUCH AWAITED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE TOWARD LAS VEGAS
NEVADA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...WHICH SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WRN NM
UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE LOWERED POPS A
TAD AND FOCUSED THEM OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY
ASSIST WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE FINICKY AS SEVERAL FACTORS WILL BE INVOLVED. THICKER CIRRUS
SHOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING SOLAR. MEANWHILE...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MIXING COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN S/SW FLOW TO
OVERCOME THE REDUCED SOLAR ENERGY. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER END
OF GUIDANCE EXCLUDING THE FAR WRN ZONES. UPPER LOW SHOULD MIGRATE E
OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NM SUN NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR QPF WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM
THE UPPER GILA REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD MIGRATE NORTHWARD IN
THE HIGH PLAINS. DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW...IT
MAY CLIP THE EC/SE ZONES AS IT INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL JET AS WELL
AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH
MODELS ARE SEGREGATED ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ABOVE 7500 FEET. ATTM...FEEL ONE
HALF TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NRN MTS. THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
LATEST HPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOS GUIDANCE
LOWERED SPEEDS...BUT WILL DISREGARD DUE TO A 70 KT 500MB JET SLIDING
ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
DISTURBANCE WILL DEPART THE AREA LATE MON AFTERNOON HOWEVER ANOTHER
LOBE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS INITIAL WAVE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE A WEAKER WAVE AND WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL IMPACT OUTSIDE OF THE NRN MTS AND NE PLAINS. COOL AIR SHOULD
REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. A THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CHASE THE
INITIAL WAVE. LARGE SPREAD IS NOTED WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON
HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVED OVER THE STATE. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
THE MOST BULLISH AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPR LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA.
CAN NOT ARGUE WITH INHERITED ISOLATED POPS TUE INTO WED...BUT FUTURE
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK ACCORDING TO UPCOMING MODEL RUNS. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND NEAR K
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED BY MIDDAY SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE WILL RESPOND DURING PEAK MIXING
AND MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AZ BORDER
AND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...AND THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED LOCALES MAY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND
INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE STATE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND
TUESDAY NIGHT...NEW MEXICO WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US. 34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 29 57 33 50 / 0 10 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 22 57 28 51 / 0 10 50 10
GRANTS.......................... 19 61 29 51 / 0 0 40 10
GLENWOOD........................ 25 68 32 62 / 0 5 30 5
CHAMA........................... 19 51 25 45 / 0 10 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 56 31 48 / 0 0 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 19 47 23 39 / 0 5 30 30
TAOS............................ 21 55 26 47 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 25 58 30 52 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 59 31 52 / 0 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 24 61 31 55 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 61 39 56 / 0 0 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 62 36 58 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 60 38 55 / 0 0 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 62 37 58 / 0 0 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 27 66 37 61 / 0 0 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 54 31 50 / 0 0 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 63 31 54 / 0 0 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 64 37 59 / 0 0 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 27 58 33 53 / 0 0 10 5
RATON........................... 24 61 29 49 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 61 30 49 / 0 0 20 10
ROY............................. 31 61 33 50 / 0 0 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 31 62 35 51 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 69 39 61 / 0 0 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 30 70 40 61 / 0 0 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 69 39 65 / 0 0 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 33 67 42 65 / 0 0 20 5
PORTALES........................ 30 69 39 68 / 0 0 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 29 72 42 70 / 0 0 10 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
46/34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 081002
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS COOL THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT DRAINAGE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK SOME
TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A FEW MORE DEGREES IN MOST
LOCALES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
PROPAGATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY.
GFS/NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...AND MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO CAPTURE PLACEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS LOW LIFTED INDICES MAY GIVE WAY TO A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE PERTURBATION MEMBERS APPEAR
CLOSER TO THE MEAN MEMBER...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL RESTS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS WEATHER PRODUCTION INTO MONDAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR NORTHERN ZONES FOR
PRECIP...BUT SOME CENTRAL VALLEYS ALSO HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE COLORADO
BORDER. ALSO TO BE NOTED...MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN THE INTENSITY OF
BOTH THE GRADIENT ALOFT AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...THUS
MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN THE WINDS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW IN THIS ABRUPT CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND HAVE KEPT WIND
SPEEDS FORECASTED SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES. ISOLATED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL BE THE RULE FOR NOW WHICH FALLS IN LINE
WITH A CANADIAN/GFS SOLUTION. BOTH THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF RUNS
CONTINUE TO BUILD A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO...AND AGAIN THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A
WETTER AND MORE BULLISH SOLUTION REGARDING PRECIP. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BUILD IN BY NEXT
WEEKEND...ASSUMING NO FEATURES GET CUT OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z...KD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES CROSSING OR PASSING JUST NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH AND INCREASED
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM HUMIDITIES. A RANGE OF 10
TO 20 PERCENT IS FORECAST WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
LOW HUMIDITIES COULD COMBINE WITH THOSE WINDS TO CREATE A COUPLE
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DURATION OF SUCH CONDITIONS IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE PATTERN. THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT
THIS TIME.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES. MILD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK..KD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 58 29 55 31 / 0 0 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 60 21 56 29 / 0 0 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 60 19 59 29 / 0 0 5 20
GLENWOOD........................ 70 26 68 34 / 0 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 53 17 50 20 / 0 0 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 29 57 30 / 0 0 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 49 16 47 23 / 0 0 10 20
TAOS............................ 57 20 54 26 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 27 57 31 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 28 58 32 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 62 22 61 28 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 35 61 39 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 28 62 38 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 32 60 38 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 29 62 37 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 63 29 67 39 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 26 56 31 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 23 63 32 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 29 64 37 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 27 58 37 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 60 24 59 28 / 0 0 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 28 59 31 / 0 0 5 20
ROY............................. 59 31 60 33 / 0 0 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 62 32 61 34 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 31 69 36 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 33 68 37 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 64 33 68 39 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 67 29 69 37 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 67 33 71 42 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52/19
000
FXUS65 KABQ 072206
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TRACK/STRENGTH OF NEXT DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL IMPACT NEW MEXICO SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AND RESULTANT PCPN CHANCES
AND DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE PATTERN ARE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKY MTS...HOWEVER A LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON
PCPN CHANCES...LET ALONE ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIRMASS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE NEAR ITS MAXIMUM. ANOTHER
CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL MAKE IT
SEEM MUCH WARMER.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL FLATTEN ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR
A ZONAL PATTERN OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER READINGS
ACROSS THE STATE BENEATH FAIR SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE REGION IS CURRENTLY TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING THE EXACT PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY DUE TO THE POOR OBSERVATIONAL RESOLUTION WITHIN THE
OCEAN. MODELS SHOULD DEVELOP A BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
FOR NOW...GFS/WRF ARE THE LESS BULLISH SOLUTIONS...TRACKING A WEAKER
SYSTEM NEAR THE CO BORDER. MEANWHILE...CANADIAN/NOGAPS/ECMWF ARE ALL
DEEPER/SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. SREF IS ALSO FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH
MODERATE SPREAD IS NOTED WITHIN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. SIMILAR
SITUATION IS OBSERVED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES. HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH
THE HPC 500MB HEIGHT PREFERENCE WHICH SIDES WITH THE CANADIAN/UKMET.
THIS TRACKS THE SYSTEM FROM LAS VEGAS NEVADA TO LAS VEGAS NEW MEXICO
AND BRINGS AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR LIGHT QPF TO THE WRN/NW MTS AS WELL
AS THE COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR ON THE SRN END OF THE
DISTURBANCE...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE PCPN A
WHILE TO REACH THE GROUND AS TOP-DOWN EFFECT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
METHOD OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. SLY SURFACE FLOW COULD ALLOW
MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD IN THE PLAINS...THOUGH IT APPEARS MUCH OF
IT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WRN
AND NRN ZONES FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN ON MONDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED
HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE GRIDS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY MAY SWING ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MOST GUIDANCE CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA...BUT DISAGREE ON ITS STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY. OPTED TO INCLUDE
ISOLATED POPS FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF
THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER REDUCING
DIURNAL TEMP SPREAD. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KCQC
THROUGH SUNSET.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SHOULD TREND UPWARD FOR SATURDAY...BUT ONLY A FEW PERCENT...AS SOME
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY FOR MOST
AREAS AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE STATE ON SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR THE AZ BORDER AND ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS. WITH DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...COULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-40...THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE...
MAINLY FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SOME MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. IT
APPEARS A SECOND SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE
DETAILS ARE STILL MUDDLED. STAY TUNED. 34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 23 56 29 55 / 0 0 0 20
GALLUP.......................... 11 60 20 58 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 13 60 20 60 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 22 68 26 68 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 12 53 19 50 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 11 49 18 48 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 15 57 20 56 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 24 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 22 62 26 61 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 62 28 63 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 25 63 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 56 24 58 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 62 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 64 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 24 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 60 24 61 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 27 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 31 61 32 63 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 28 65 33 69 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 67 31 72 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 31 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 26 66 29 71 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 29 68 32 73 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
46/34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 070959
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY MORNING/S LOWS. LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES ONGOING AT MANY
LOCALES AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING HOURS AS
COOLER/DENSER DRAINAGE FLOWS PREVAIL. SUBSTANTIAL INVERSIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING MIXES THINGS OUT AND WARMER
H7 TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTHWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TWO MECHANISMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY/S READINGS...AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP FORECASTED MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE.
BY SATURDAY...EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AND
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE ZONAL
AS NORTHWESTERN COAST ABSORBS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. WIDE
RANGE OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND. THE GREATEST OUTLIER...THE ECMWF...BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND GENERATES MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SREF SOLUTION FOR
THE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME...CONTINUING TO KEEP
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. BREEZINESS
WILL ALSO PEAK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE SIDE TROUGH AND UPPER
GRADIENT ARE JUXTAPOSED OVER THEIR FAVORABLE LOCALES.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY GETS WORSE FOR TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF RUNS BUILD A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
SWINGING TO THE SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
A WETTER AND MORE BULLISH SOLUTION REGARDING PRECIP. IN
CONTRAST...GFS AND ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP A LONG WAVE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...VERY LOW
GRADE POPS ARE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS
TO PLACEMENT AND OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION BEYOND MONDAY.
52
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN EDGES
OF NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CAVU THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...TAPPING CONTINUED PUSH OF
COLD AIR AND MAINTAINING BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. NORTH PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LANDING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
EARLY SATURDAY WILL SWING TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE
SUNDAY...BACKING WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND PUSHING
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...FOR SPOTTY RAIN WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW
SHOWERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE PUSH
AND ASSOCIATED SOUTHWARD SWEEPING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
TEEN HUMIDITIES FOR A BROAD BAND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT SLOWING UP ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE STATE SHOULD EASE THE AFTERNOON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PROBLEM AS
THE WORK WEEK GETS STARTED. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING BY MIDWEEK AS
COMPLEX TROUGH PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS FOR RESTART
OF THE DRYING TREND. VERY BREEZY PATTERN IN NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE SPEED...AND TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
STATE.
SHY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 52 24 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 15 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 16 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 24 69 26 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 50 11 55 15 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 24 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 48 12 50 20 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 52 13 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 23 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 25 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 57 19 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 32 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 24 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 27 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 25 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 23 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 23 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 28 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 21 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 59 21 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 59 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 31 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 30 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 27 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 30 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 64 33 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 29 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 30 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52/SHY
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