[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 082146
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TX AND RIDGING ACRS THE
GULF COAST. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT FALL AFTERNOON
ACRS THE AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 70S CENTRAL LA TO THE UPPER
70S FAR SW LA AND SE TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW
LIFTING NE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NWRLY FLOW WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE TOWARD THE GULF COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND
BRINGING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
WILL DROP INTO THE SWRN STATES MONDAY WITH SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPING
ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS SE CO INTO NW TX
PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL PULL EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS TX.
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE TX.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ECMWF MAINTAINS A WET PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACRS WRN TX INTO
NRN MEXICO WHILE THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
EAST BRINGING DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...HAVE FAVORED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND STAYED THE COURSE WITH INHERITED POP/WX
GRIDS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FCST IS
LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 73 53 73 62 / 0 0 10 20 40
KBPT 46 74 56 74 65 / 0 0 10 30 40
KAEX 42 70 45 70 60 / 0 0 10 20 50
KLFT 44 71 48 74 61 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 082133
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A GORGEOUS WEEKEND IS UNDERWAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.
AS A POINT OF INTEREST...HURRICANE PALOMA...WHICH POSES NO THREAT
TO OUR AREA...IS APPROACHING EASTERN CUBA AND SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY CALM WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL
ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR VERY EFFECTIVE COOLING TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS
ARE GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT/S LOWS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
MONDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. THOUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DEGRADES STEADILY AFTER MONDAY...AS THERE ARE
STILL VERY LARGE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...WHILE THE GFS CONTAINS A
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION CONCERNING THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND VERY
SLOWLY LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. IN LIGHT OF THE VERY LARGE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE ONCE
AGAIN DECIDED TO MAKE ONLY A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL PLACES EMPHASIS ON THE GFS
SOLUTION AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE.
IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW WET DAYS IN THE EXTENDED AS A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. THE
GFS IS HINTING AT A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THOUGH THIS THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WILL
DECREASE FORECAST QPF CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED BEFORE.
BY THURSDAY...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO FORCE
THE STALLED FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA. THE FORCING THAT
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE FIRST
TROUGH. THOUGH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL FORECAST IS
LIMITED TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AS WELL
AS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STALLED BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION.
THE ENTIRE SCENARIO WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE WALKING A FINE LINE BETWEEN A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL DAY AND A DAY WITH A SLIGHT THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY...
ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTIVE VISIBILITY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SEAS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 39 67 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 42 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 48 69 51 72 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 40 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARINE/AVIATION...10
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 082042
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN COMING UP DURING THE NEXT WEEK AFTER A
RATHER QUITE PAST FEW WEEKS. A SLOWLY PROGRESSING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL FORM JUST TO OUR WEST MONDAY...AND IT WILL USHER IN A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUILL...BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS SOUTH
WINDS RETURN TO THE FOUR STATE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO PRIME THE
PUMP FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FIRST OF
THESE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY. EACH DAY
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE ONE OF THESE TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH...EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
THE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL.
AT ANY RATE...A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED LONG
WAVE TROUGH POSITION COULD LENGTHEN THE STAY OF THE RAINFALL...OR
SHORTEN IT...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURE WITH THIS
UNCERTAIN PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
QUITE DRY AIRMASS WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR TO DOMINATE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GORGEOUS VFR AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 40 70 48 61 58 / 0 0 20 50 50
MLU 38 68 43 61 54 / 0 0 10 40 60
DEQ 32 66 45 56 52 / 0 0 20 70 50
TXK 38 68 47 58 54 / 0 0 20 50 50
ELD 36 67 43 56 53 / 0 0 10 50 60
TYR 44 71 52 64 61 / 0 0 30 70 40
GGG 42 71 51 63 59 / 0 0 30 50 40
LFK 41 74 55 67 63 / 0 0 20 50 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/08
000
FXUS64 KSHV 081623
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY FOR BOTH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THIS IS
ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS AND FORECAST. A GRADUAL TURN IN THE
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ROCKIES. MORE ABOUT THAT ON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING S TO THE
COAST THROUGH TODAY. QUITE DRY AIRMASS WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR TO DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH VFR FORECAST AS
WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 40 66 49 62 / 0 0 0 20 50
MLU 69 38 62 45 59 / 0 0 0 0 40
DEQ 66 32 63 47 59 / 0 0 0 20 70
TXK 67 38 63 47 59 / 0 0 0 20 60
ELD 66 36 61 46 59 / 0 0 0 0 50
TYR 71 43 68 55 63 / 0 0 0 30 70
GGG 72 41 67 53 62 / 0 0 0 20 60
LFK 74 45 71 57 65 / 0 0 0 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/08
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081608
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1008 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACRS THE GULF COAST IS PROVIDING FOR
PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER TODAY. AFTER A COOL START THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 60 NORTH AND LOW TO MID
60S SOUTH. CURRENT FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM ALL THE WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKING FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THINGS GET INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO THE UP-COMING WEEK. MODELS
SHOWING A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT WITH FAST ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DETAILS
IN THE GUIDANCE VARY AND THUS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN IS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TO MENTION A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALL THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. AGAIN...THE DETAILS AND STRENGTH OF EACH FEATURE DIFFER
ON THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO A LITTLE BELOW MEX
POP NUMBERS AND BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH JUST CHANCE POPS DURING
THE TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OUT
WEST AND EXPANDING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD
RE-ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW A LOFT PUSHING MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT KLFT AND KARA TAF SITED UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
MARINE...
LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURES
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND STALL NEAR
OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 46 73 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
KBPT 78 47 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
KAEX 76 42 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 10 30
KLFT 76 45 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081259 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
659 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH
AXIS THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALSO NOTED TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5600 METERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
GOING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS DEEP THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. ACROSS
THE GULF SOUTH...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
RIDGING TO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
OFF THE GULF TO TAKE HOLD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MODIFY SLOWLY AT
FIRST...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A FAST MOVING VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A BROAD AREA OF PVA PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY...AS A GREAT DEAL
OF DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...TROUGH
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CUTS THE LOW
OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE SHEARING IT OUT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THESE TIMING AND PHASE
UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON THE
GFS SOLUTION OVERALL.
THERE IS GREATER CERTAINTY ON THE INITIAL VORT MAX...WHICH WAS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THESE HIGHER POPS ARE SUPPORTED
BY A COMBINATION OF DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES
RUNNING AROUND -2...DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LIFT DUE TO THE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAK SETTLING OVER THE
REGION...AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY COULD REMAIN STALLED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS LED ME TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOWER...BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRONG PVA IN ADVANCE OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE STALLED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME HEAVIER RAINS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE
TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY GOING OUT BEYOND TUESDAY.
THE SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO
BE VERY STRONG SYSTEM...IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...AND GIVEN
THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITIES...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG/BR MAY IMPACT KBTR WITH MVFR
VSBYS RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 22
MARINE...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAVE BROUGHT WINDS UP NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF 20 KNOT WINDS. SEAS HAVE ONLY REACHED
4 FEET AT BUOY 42040 AS OF 3 AM...BUT THEY MAY REACH 5 TO 6 FEET
BRIEFLY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN WITH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH /SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION/ FOR ALL WESTERN WATERS AND EASTERN WATERS 0-20 NMI
OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE /SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS/ IN THE EASTERN
LEG 20-60 NMI OFFSHORE UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND MAY CAUSE OFFSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. A COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS LOOK MOST LIKELY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. 22
FIRE WEATHER...
THE LIGHT RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY FINISH EVAPORATING
AND SOAKING INTO THE PARCHED GROUND THIS MORNING AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES PLUNGE INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...SO FIRE SPREAD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. SUNDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH A LIGHT BREEZE...BUT STILL DRY WITH LOWEST HUMIDITIES
DROPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. 22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 76 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 74 48 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 74 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 081012
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH REINFORCING WEAK COOL FRONT TODAY WILL BRING
WNW BREEZE AND SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME WISPY CIRRUS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER PANHANDLE REGION.
100 KT MID/UPPER JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL TX AND RED RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GULF OPENING UP IN RESPONSE TO POSITION
OF BEING ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE RIDGE OVER SE STATES...WILL PROVIDE
BOTH MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS WITH SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. LOW LVL VEERING FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT SFC
BASED INSTABILTITY BIG QUESTION MARK AS SOME OF THE CURRENT
AIRMASS WILL BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. STILL...MOISTURE AXIS...AND
PERHAPS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY PRODUCE DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR NE TX ESPECIALLY. NAM AND MAV GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT MODELS DIVERGE IN EXTENDED. STILL NOT BUYING HEAVY
PCPN ALL WEEK AND WILL BRING FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU TUESDAY EVENING.
LEAVE IN LOW POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOME
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN COLDER AIR. LONG WAVE TROFFING TO
WEST WILL SET UP DEEP SW FLOW...AND DIGGING UPPER LOW COULD PASS
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. N-NE FLOW IN LOWER LVLS AND COOLING
THICKNESSES...BELIEVE ITS TIME FOR OVERRUNNING TO BE STRICTLY
STRATIFORM FOR THIS SECOND SYSTEM... AND WILL CARRY PCPN AS RAIN.
BACK TO MOSTLY SUNNY END OF EXTENDED FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED. EXPECTED A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION BUT JUST A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH
AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS AFTER 08/15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BETWEEN 08/15Z TO 08/23Z WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 7 KNOTS
NEAR 09/00Z. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 40 66 49 62 / 0 0 0 20 50
MLU 69 38 62 45 59 / 0 0 0 0 40
DEQ 66 32 63 47 59 / 0 0 0 20 70
TXK 67 38 63 47 59 / 0 0 0 20 60
ELD 66 36 61 46 59 / 0 0 0 0 50
TYR 71 43 68 55 63 / 0 0 0 30 70
GGG 72 41 67 53 62 / 0 0 0 20 60
LFK 74 45 71 57 65 / 0 0 0 20 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080940
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM ALL THE WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKING FOR A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THINGS GET INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO THE UP-COMING WEEK. MODELS
SHOWING A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT WITH FAST ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DETAILS
IN THE GUIDANCE VARY AND THUS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN IS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TO MENTION A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALL THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. AGAIN...THE DETAILS AND STRENGTH OF EACH FEATURE DIFFER
ON THE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO A LITTLE BELOW MEX
POP NUMBERS AND BROAD BRUSHED THE AREA WITH JUST CHANCE POPS DURING
THE TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OUT
WEST AND EXPANDING TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD
RE-ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW A LOFT PUSHING MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT KLFT AND KARA TAF SITED UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT MAINLY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURES
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND STALL NEAR
OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 46 73 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
KBPT 78 47 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
KAEX 76 42 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 10 30
KLFT 76 45 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE: RUA
AVIATION: JS
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080935
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH
AXIS THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR
SKIES TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ALSO NOTED TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5600 METERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
GOING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS DEEP THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. ACROSS
THE GULF SOUTH...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING A
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
RIDGING TO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
OFF THE GULF TO TAKE HOLD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MODIFY SLOWLY AT
FIRST...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A FAST MOVING VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A BROAD AREA OF PVA PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN BEYOND MONDAY...AS A GREAT DEAL
OF DIFFERENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...TROUGH
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CUTS THE LOW
OFF OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE SHEARING IT OUT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THESE TIMING AND PHASE
UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PACKAGE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST...WITH MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON THE
GFS SOLUTION OVERALL.
THERE IS GREATER CERTAINTY ON THE INITIAL VORT MAX...WHICH WAS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. THESE HIGHER POPS ARE SUPPORTED
BY A COMBINATION OF DECENT SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES
RUNNING AROUND -2...DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LIFT DUE TO THE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAK SETTLING OVER THE
REGION...AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BOUNDARY COULD REMAIN STALLED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS LED ME TO KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOWER...BUT STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET STREAK AND STRONG PVA IN ADVANCE OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE STALLED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME HEAVIER RAINS COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE
TO THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY GOING OUT BEYOND TUESDAY.
THE SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO
BE VERY STRONG SYSTEM...IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...AND GIVEN
THE DYNAMIC STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE COULD BE A ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITIES...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG/BR MAY IMPACT KBTR WITH MVFR
VSBYS RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 22
&&
.MARINE...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAVE BROUGHT WINDS UP NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF 20 KNOT WINDS. SEAS HAVE ONLY REACHED
4 FEET AT BUOY 42040 AS OF 3 AM...BUT THEY MAY REACH 5 TO 6 FEET
BRIEFLY BEFORE SETTLING DOWN WITH WINDS AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACED WITH /SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION/ FOR ALL WESTERN WATERS AND EASTERN WATERS 0-20 NMI
OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE /SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS/ IN THE EASTERN
LEG 20-60 NMI OFFSHORE UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAND MAY CAUSE OFFSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. A COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS MAY BRING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS LOOK MOST LIKELY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. 22
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE LIGHT RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY WILL QUICKLY FINISH EVAPORATING
AND SOAKING INTO THE PARCHED GROUND THIS MORNING AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES PLUNGE INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH IN
MOST AREAS TODAY...SO FIRE SPREAD WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. SUNDAY WILL
BE COOLER WITH A LIGHT BREEZE...BUT STILL DRY WITH LOWEST HUMIDITIES
DROPPING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. 22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 76 42 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 74 48 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 74 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR GMZ575.
MS...NONE.
GM...&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080521
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EACH TAF SITE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/
SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT PULLING OUT OF THE
AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST NOW REACHING
PASCAGOULA. A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW MORE
HOURS. CLEARING SKIES CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
USHERS IN VERY DRY AIR. SIGNS OF THIS IN SHREVEPORT WHICH HAS A
TD OF 28. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND DECREASE
IN WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WENT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MAINLY
CLOSEST TO FWC. CONDITIONS WONT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM
NEAR 40 IN MS TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM...
CHANGES DONT REALLY ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUES. AS TODAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS...A ZONAL PATTERN
ENSUES AND THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY
THIS SETUP RESULTS IN A WET PATTERN FOR THE U.S GULF COAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET INCREASES DEEP MOISTURE FETCH AND REPEATED
RAINFALL CHANCES. PROBLEM IS THAT THE LATITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON WHETHER OR NOT SOUTH
LOUISIANA GETS ABUNDANT RAIN OR IT ALL STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE NOT RETURNED TO THE EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FROM YESTERDAY. BOTH AGREE IN THE SWLY FETCH BUT ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW AND LETS IT JUST SPIN OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE
GFS EJECTS THE TROUGH OUT. EITHER WAY...LEFT MENTION OF POPS
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IF THERE WERE A CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS IT WOULD BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODERATE ALONG WITH
ENOUGH LIFT BUT INSTABILITY TENDS TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE.
REALISTICALLY...LOOKS LIKE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA AND SE TX WILL
HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYS WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORM.
MEFFER
FIRE WEATHER...
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOG MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE IN THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 24
AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECK OVER REGION SHOULD YIELD TO SKC AROUND 00Z...HAVING
ALREADY CLEARED AT KMCB TO KLFT. CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
24-36 HOURS. 24
MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
LATER TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MARINE WEATHER AS IT WEAKENS
UPON ARRIVAL INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 41 73 39 71 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 42 76 42 74 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 50 72 50 73 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 45 73 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ550-555-570-
575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ555-570-575.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080409
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1009 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS INTO THE 40S BY SUNRISE AT BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER WITH MILD
TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES. ZONES ARE FINE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLR...LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 44 76 47 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 10
KBPT 45 79 45 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
KAEX 42 76 43 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
KLFT 44 75 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
K. KUYPER
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080340
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SFC RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SCNTRL TX/S LA THIS EVENING...WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 2ND WEAK/REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM JUST N OF A CDS...TO OKC...TO NW OF A
FSM LINE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SE INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER...ASIDE THAN A WNW WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED NEAR/BEHIND THE FROPA. 11-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AC DECK NEAR 12KFT ALSO CONTINUES TO THIN AS
THEY DRIFT SE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED ALONG THE MS
RIVER VALLEY...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME OF THIS REACHING EXTREME SE
OK/SW AR LATE.
BNDRY LYR WINDS OF 15-20KTS ALONG/N OF I-20 WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS
TO COMPLETELY RADIATE DOWN TO SATURATION BY SUNRISE...BUT FEEL
THAT CURRENT FORECAST IN THE MID 40S MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPS/TRENDS...THUS HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT DOWN A
CATEGORY OR SO...WITH SCNTRL AR /ELD/ POSSIBLY SEEING PATCHY
LIGHT FROST LATE. HOWEVER...TEMPS FURTHER S ACROSS DEEP E
TX/NCNTRL LA WILL LIKELY RADIATE DOWN WELL OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
LOWERED THESE TEMPS DOWN AS WELL...WITH AROUND 40/LOWER 40S
COMMON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE..WITH A
NICE/SEASONAL WEEKEND IN STORE.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS A DRY
ATMOSHERE WILL PROVUDE VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARS SKIES...WITH NEAR CALM
WINDS AT NIGHT...AND A LIGHT BREEZE DURING THE DAY WILL BE COMMON.
SOME TEMPO BR MAY BE OBSERVED AT A FEW TAF SITES...BUT THIS WILL BE
HANDLED ON AN AS NEED BASIS. /11/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 42 74 42 70 52 / 0 0 0 0 20
MLU 43 72 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 32 69 34 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
TXK 42 70 40 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
ELD 37 69 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 74 45 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 20
GGG 41 75 43 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 20
LFK 39 77 47 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/11
000
FXUS64 KLCH 072156
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER WITH
AXIS OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO OK/TX. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE EXITED MUCH OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUSTAINED AS THE TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF...IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WENT
WITH THE GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT EAST AND BRINGS DRIER AIR TOWARD
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 44 76 47 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 10
KBPT 45 79 45 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
KAEX 42 76 43 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
KLFT 44 75 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/NP
000
FXUS64 KLIX 072134
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE COLD FRONT PULLING OUT OF THE
AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST NOW REACHING
PASCAGOULA. A FEW LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW MORE
HOURS. CLEARING SKIES CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP SHARPLY OVERNIGHT AS NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
USHERS IN VERY DRY AIR. SIGNS OF THIS IN SHREVEPORT WHICH HAS A
TD OF 28. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND DECREASE
IN WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WENT ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MAINLY
CLOSEST TO FWC. CONDITIONS WONT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS RANGING FROM
NEAR 40 IN MS TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST.
.LONG TERM...
CHANGES DONT REALLY ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUES. AS TODAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS...A ZONAL PATTERN
ENSUES AND THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY
THIS SETUP RESULTS IN A WET PATTERN FOR THE U.S GULF COAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL JET INCREASES DEEP MOISTURE FETCH AND REPEATED
RAINFALL CHANCES. PROBLEM IS THAT THE LATITUDE OF THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON WHETHER OR NOT SOUTH
LOUISIANA GETS ABUNDANT RAIN OR IT ALL STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA.
LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE NOT RETURNED TO THE EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT FROM YESTERDAY. BOTH AGREE IN THE SWLY FETCH BUT ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW AND LETS IT JUST SPIN OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE
GFS EJECTS THE TROUGH OUT. EITHER WAY...LEFT MENTION OF POPS
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. IF THERE WERE A CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS IT WOULD BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE MODERATE ALONG WITH
ENOUGH LIFT BUT INSTABILITY TENDS TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE.
REALISTICALLY...LOOKS LIKE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA AND SE TX WILL
HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. DAYS WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORM.
MEFFER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOG MAY BECOME
AN ISSUE IN THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECK OVER REGION SHOULD YIELD TO SKC AROUND 00Z...HAVING
ALREADY CLEARED AT KMCB TO KLFT. CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
24-36 HOURS. 24
&&
.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WITH GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
LATER TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION BEFORE SLIDING EAST BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH MAY NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON MARINE WEATHER AS IT WEAKENS
UPON ARRIVAL INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. 24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 41 73 39 / 60 10 0 0
BTR 72 42 76 42 / 60 10 0 0
MSY 74 50 72 50 / 60 10 0 0
GPT 74 45 73 43 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 072035
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW EJECTING ENE OVER
IA...TRAILING DRIER AIR INTO THE FOUR-STATE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY/S FRONT...AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD SE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THRU
SUNDAY...WHEN THE NEXT LEESIDE TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING AND RETURN
FLOW RESUMES. ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL TILT NEGATIVE...W/THE
ECMWF BEING DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. GFS THEN BRINGS A FRONT
INTO THE NW ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY...W/THE ECMWF LAGGING BY ABOUT 6-12
HRS. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST CLOSELY...AGAIN W/THE
ECMWF DIGGING DEEPER AND SLOWER. ECMWF CLOSES OFF AND STALLS OVER
CHIHUAHUA...WHILE THE GFS STAYS OPEN AND EJECTS ENE INTO NEXT WEEK.
EITHER WAY...UPCOMING PATTERN LOOKS WET FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH MOVES INTO HE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
STICKING W/THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...CHC-LKLY POPS WILL PREVAIL
THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS/SHEAR MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL ATTM.
FOR TEMPS...GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER AND...GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/RAINFALL IN THE EXTENDED...WE/LL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A
BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING WIND FIELD
OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY. OTHER THAN WIND ISSUES...THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TERMINAL VALIDATION TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AT MLU/ELD/LFK TERMINALS
AS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE TEMPO
GROUPS AT THESE TERMINALS JUST IN CASE WE GET FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.
/13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 44 74 42 70 52 / 0 0 0 0 20
MLU 44 72 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 32 69 34 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
TXK 43 70 40 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
ELD 41 69 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 74 45 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 20
GGG 42 75 43 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 20
LFK 41 77 47 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/44
000
FXUS64 KLIX 071736
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AS COLD FROPA MOVES EAST
OF KGPT AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MOVES EAST ALONG ELEVATED TROUGH
AXIS. EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO GO PREVAILING VFR CAVOK FROM WEST
TO EAST AROUND 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 43 74 42 / 60 0 0 0
BTR 72 43 76 46 / 60 0 0 0
MSY 74 51 74 50 / 60 10 0 0
GPT 74 45 74 45 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ550-555-570-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ555-570-575.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071635
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
JUST OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
IS FAIRLY SCATTERED OR EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEARING LINE APPROXIMATELY FROM AEX TO LCH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NWRN COASTAL ZONES. UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS THE AREA...TAPERING SE THROUGH THE AFTN. ALSO ADJUSTED
CLOUDS A BIT AS CLEARING IS A LITTLE SLOWER FROM NW TO SE...BUT
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UPWARD ACROSS NWRN ZONES AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER FOR SE ZONES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER TODAY.
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ALREADY OUT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008/
DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
LAFAYETTE AREA SHORTLY. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW POST-FRONTAL AND APPEARS MAINLY ALIGNED WITH 850
MILLIBAR FRONT. HAVE USED THIS FEATURE TO TIME ENDING OF RAINS
WEST TO EAST FOR THE AREA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO BE
FOLLOWING 850 BOUNDARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS AS 1020 MB SURFACE
HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW
EVOLVES ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 1/2 INCH
INCH. DEWPOINTS MIGRATING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL NIGHTS. FULL SUNSHINE HOWEVER
WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID WARMUP BACK UP INTO THE 70S. THUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKING RATHER PLEASANT.
MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK...RAPID MOISTURE RETURN SETTING UP
BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH AND DEVELOPING MID PLAINS
LOW/SHORTWAVE WITHIN DEEPENING LONGWAVE PLAINS TROF. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN TRENDING DOWN TOWARD ACADIANA. WILL BE SETTING
UP RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME BUT LOSE CONTINUITY GOING INTO MID-WEEK.
GFS ADVANCES PLAINS LOW NORTHEAST SWINGING INITIAL TROF/COLD
FRONT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRYING US OUT THURSDAY...THEN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAINS FRIDAY AS LONGWAVE FEATURE ADVANCES
EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY
DIVES SOUTHEAST BRINGING YET ANOTHER FROPA FOR OUR AREA. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
ECMWF DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TOWARD MID-WEEK
AND ADVANCES FEATURE ONLY SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD SPELL
EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. DGEX MORE IN LINE WITH
GFS.
AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING.
UNTIL SKIES CLEAR...CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN AN UPPER MVFR TO VFR RANGE.
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 45 76 47 75 / 20 0 0 0 0
KBPT 76 44 78 51 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
KAEX 72 44 75 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
KLFT 73 46 76 44 75 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071541
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
941 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE SE ZONES...SO WE/LL DO A
QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR WX GRIDS AND MAKE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
MORNING RAOB AND 12Z MODELS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG CONCERNS AT MLU/ELD AND LFK TERMINALS
TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING BUT OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CONCERNS.
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT
WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST WIND AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 44 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 73 43 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 69 38 64 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
TXK 70 43 66 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 71 39 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 71 43 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
GGG 72 42 70 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
LFK 77 43 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/44
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071028
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
428 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
VERY PERSISTENT POSTFRONTAL ZONE OF RW SKIRTING SE CORNER OF CWA.
LEAVE IN 20 CENTS FOR MORNING HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. CLEAR
SKIES...OR BECMG CLR...BY AFTN. WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL KS
SHOULD ONLY BRUSH AREAS NORTH OF I-30 TONIGHT...IF THAT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW...WITH A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT...
PRETTY MUCH STORY OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALL HAVE DIFFERING
INTERPRETATION OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. ETA QUICKEST IN BRINGING NEXT
SYSTEM IN. NOSE OF 100+ KT JET STREAK TARGET STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AROUND NE OK BY EARLY MONDAY...SHIFTING IT TOWARDS SE
OK AS JET CORE DIGS SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...COMPACT SFC LOW TRAVELS
ALONG RED RIVER VALLEY...TOWARDS AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW LVL
VEERING AND DEEP MOISTURE...MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BONIFIDE SVR WX
EVENT...BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR IN FCST AND STILL DIFFERING MODELS TO
SPELL IT OUT YET. HOWEVER...WILL PUT LIKELY POPS WITH FROPA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH CHANCE TSTMS WELL AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AM LOOKING FOR A PCPN FREE BREAK MID WEEK...CONTRARY TO
WHAT ECMWF TRIES TO ADVERTISE. DURING THIS TIME...LARGE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS AND CUTS OFF OVER NW OLD MEXICO...CREATING A DEEP SW FLOW.
SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SET UP MORE OF OVERRUNNING
RAIN EVENT LATE IN EXTENDED. MAY BE PARTIALLY CONVECTIVE NEAR COAST...
SO CONVEY A MIX OF TRW AND SHOWERS ONLY...IN GRIDS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...THAT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HAVE JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA CONTINUED TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WAS MOSTLY
VFR...WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4 KFT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. BY 07/12Z
EXPECT THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE CLOUDS TO EXTEND NEAR A KMLU TO KIER
AND KJAS LINE WITH LOWEST CEILINGS GTE/GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO/ 5
KFT. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY BR/MIST AROUND THE FOUR STATE REGION
BUT WILL OMIT MENTION FROM THE 07/12Z ISSUANCE OF THE TAF/S DUE
DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH AND NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITIES BELOW 6 STATUTE MILES. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHWEST NEAR 5 KNOTS UNTIL
AROUND/AFTER 07/14Z WHEN WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR MIDDAY. THE
WINDS DROP OFF IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 08/23Z. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 44 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 72 43 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 71 38 64 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 10
TXK 71 43 66 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 71 39 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 73 43 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
GGG 75 42 70 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
LFK 77 43 72 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071011
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
LAFAYETTE AREA SHORTLY. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW POST-FRONTAL AND APPEARS MAINLY ALIGNED WITH 850
MILLIBAR FRONT. HAVE USED THIS FEATURE TO TIME ENDING OF RAINS
WEST TO EAST FOR THE AREA TODAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO BE
FOLLOWING 850 BOUNDARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS AS 1020 MB SURFACE
HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MORE ZONAL FLOW
EVOLVES ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 1/2 INCH
INCH. DEWPOINTS MIGRATING BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL NIGHTS. FULL SUNSHINE HOWEVER
WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID WARMUP BACK UP INTO THE 70S. THUS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKING RATHER PLEASANT.
MOVING INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK...RAPID MOISTURE RETURN SETTING UP
BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH AND DEVELOPING MID PLAINS
LOW/SHORTWAVE WITHIN DEEPENING LONGWAVE PLAINS TROF. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BACK TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN TRENDING DOWN TOWARD ACADIANA. WILL BE SETTING
UP RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME BUT LOSE CONTINUITY GOING INTO MID-WEEK.
GFS ADVANCES PLAINS LOW NORTHEAST SWINGING INITIAL TROF/COLD
FRONT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY...DRYING US OUT THURSDAY...THEN
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT FOR RAINS FRIDAY AS LONGWAVE FEATURE ADVANCES
EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY
DIVES SOUTHEAST BRINGING YET ANOTHER FROPA FOR OUR AREA. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
ECMWF DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TOWARD MID-WEEK
AND ADVANCES FEATURE ONLY SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD SPELL
EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. DGEX MORE IN LINE WITH
GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES FOLLOWING.
UNTIL SKIES CLEAR...CLOUDS WILL HOLD IN AN UPPER MVFR TO VFR RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 45 76 47 75 / 30 0 0 0 0
KBPT 76 44 78 51 76 / 20 0 0 0 0
KAEX 72 44 75 45 74 / 30 0 0 0 0
KLFT 74 46 76 44 75 / 40 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARCOTTE
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070936
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE FORCED EASTWARD BY A VORT
LOBE SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT...AND AMPLE LIFT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 110 KT JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...AMPLE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH LIFTED
INDICES OF -1 TO -2 AND SOME CAPE RUNNING UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...OVERALL LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE LIMITED...WITH SOME
WEAK SPEED SHEAR AT BEST. WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL EASTWARD...AS THE VORT LOBE SLIDES
THROUGH...AND STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TAKE HOLD.
STRONG COLD AIR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL AS AMPLE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
EASILY TRANSPORTED DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. A COOL AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. CLEAR AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW
AS THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN RUNS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS ON THE SPEED OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS IT EXITS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG A CUT OFF LOW INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE LIFTING
THE LOW OUT NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS WIDE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS...HAVE SPREAD OUT THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEK...AS TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES ARE VERY HIGH. THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVERALL...HAS BEEN
TO SLOW UP THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO PULL OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THIS WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER SOLUTION...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH..EXPECT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. THE
VORT MAX SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE INITIAL VORT MAX. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
SLIP THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
STEADILY INCREASED THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING. IFR
CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO KMCB AND KBTR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KMCB AND KBTR POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z AND KMSY
AND KGPT AFTER 12 OR 14Z. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE
TAF SITES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 18
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VERY DRY AIR
BEHIND FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND A FEW HOURS OF
GUSTINESS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT NIGHT. 1000 TO 700MB
THICKNESS LAYERS DROP FROM 3000M TO 2955M THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS OF 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY...WINDS MAY KICK UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT TOO...BUT BELOW
SCA. 18
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTABLE RAINS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST WILL INDICATE A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FALLING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY POST FRONTAL WITH HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO
THE 25-30 PERCENTILE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. 18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 43 74 42 / 60 0 0 0
BTR 72 43 76 46 / 60 0 0 0
MSY 74 51 74 50 / 60 10 0 0
GPT 74 45 74 45 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ550-555-570-575.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ555-570-575.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070606
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1206 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
RATHER LIMITED THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED
INTO KMCB AND KBTR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT KMCB AND KBTR AFTER 08Z AND KMSY AND KGPT AFTER 10 OR 12Z.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
LIBERTY MS SOUTH THROUGH TERREBONNE PARISH IS TRACKING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A DOWN TIME RAINWISE IS EXPECTED BEFORE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE AREA. THIS COLD FRONT IS DRAPED
ACROSS THE STATE OF LOUISIANA FROM NEAR MONROE THROUGH SOUTH OF
TOLEDO BEND. PROGRESSION HASN/T BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ISN/T
MUCH SURPRISE WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON A SE TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE...REACHING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TOMORROW MORNING. FROM THIS
TIME PERIOD ONWARD IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTED ANYTHING MORE
THAN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ONLY LOOKS TO BE MEDIOCRE WITH MARGINAL
SHEAR. STP LOOKS TO BE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. WESTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT EARLIEST NOT LONG AFTER
NOON AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EJECTS AND SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE NEXT SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT MORE SOUTHWARD IN
TRACK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE POSSIBILITY FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GREATEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
WILL BE CLOSER THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND THETA E RIDGE SURGING
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL NOT
COMPLETELY DECIDED AS THE ECMWF IS QUITE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. INTO
THE EXTENDED...THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH COLD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLY WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.
MEFFER
FIRE WEATHER...
WETTABLE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. FORECAST WILL INDICATE A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE BUT COVERAGE
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES IF
MOISTURE AXIS DIVERGES UPON MOVING EASTWARD INTO DRIER RESIDUAL
AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FALLING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY POST FRONTAL
WITH HUMIDITIES LOWERING INTO THE 25-30 PERCENTILE SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY. 18
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE WITH A MOISTURE PLUME...NOT ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. 12Z NAM MODEL INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL AND
SURFACE HEATING HAS TRIGGERED CONVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT BTR
AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND MCB TOWARD 23Z TODAY BEFORE LOSS OF
HEATING. OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z
FRIDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT BTR AND MCB
BY 09Z...MSY AROUND 12Z AND GPT AROUND 14Z THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. 18
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SUSTAINED 15 KNOTS BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VERY DRY AIR BEHIND
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND A FEW HOURS OF GUSTINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS DROP FROM
3000M TO 2960M THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS MAY BE MORE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
WITH SEVERAL GUSTS 25 KT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS MAY STAY UP A LITTLE
SATURDAY NIGHT TOO. 18
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 43 73 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 45 74 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 53 77 53 75 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 46 74 44 75 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 070345
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CWA AND SLOWING AS
NW AT 5 MPH IS SPREADING PRETTY THIN. THE 850 HOLDING POSITION FOR
NOW AND THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL KEEPING THE LOW AND MID
CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN GRIDDED. LOADED LAPS AND
THREW IN SOME ART TO GO WITH MC BCMG PC OR MC. I DECIDED TO EDGE
POPS BACK TO NW JUST A HAIR OVER N CEN LA AND DEEP E TX TO MESH
WITH NOW CAST AND RADAR TRENDS. AND FINALLY...A FEW TWEAKS TO LOWS
WITH NEW MAV. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY AVAILABLE. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE STILL AFFECTING THE MLU TERMINAL AS FROPA
STILL LINGERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA VFR CONDITIONS ARE PERSENT
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW LITTLE TO NO WINDS AT AREA
TERMINALS...BUT FOG SHOULD NOT BE PROBLEM WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED
TO FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT. CLEARING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SKC BECOMING POPULAR AFTER 12Z. /11/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 48 73 46 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 52 72 43 74 45 / 30 0 0 0 0
DEQ 37 71 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 45 71 45 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 71 39 72 41 / 10 0 0 0 0
TYR 45 73 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 74 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 76 43 79 46 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/24/11
000
FXUS64 KLCH 070237
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
837 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008
.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS BASICALLY STALLED ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER
THIS EVENING AS SHOWN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AT KLFK AND
UPPER 60S IN JASPER. AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES TOWARDS AND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FRONT SHOULD PUSH MORE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS STILL SEEM REASONABLE AND HAVE
NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
SOMEWHAT IN THE PAST HOUR. WITH MOS GUIDANCE TRENDING LOWER ON
PRECIP CHANCES AND MAIN DYNAMICS WELL TO OUR NORTH HAVE LOWERED
POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT BEST WITH KLCH 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWING A DRY PROFILE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY.
WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FROM ZONES.
REST OF FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK AND WILL LEAVE AS IS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VERNON
PARISH TO RAPIDES PARISH. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE TX AND SRN LOUISIANA
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPS LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS EVE OTHERWISE FRONT WILL BE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE DRIVE INTO WORK TOMORROW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND AEX ATTM.
STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 62 76 46 77 46 / 40 20 0 0 0
KBPT 59 76 45 77 48 / 40 20 0 0 0
KAEX 56 75 43 78 46 / 40 0 0 0 0
KLFT 62 73 47 77 48 / 40 40 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 070057
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VERNON
PARISH TO RAPIDES PARISH. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SE TX AND SRN LOUISIANA
TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPS LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS EVE OTHERWISE FRONT WILL BE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE SUNRISE WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE DRIVE INTO WORK TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND AEX ATTM.
STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 62 76 46 77 46 / 40 20 0 0 0
KBPT 59 76 45 77 48 / 50 20 0 0 0
KAEX 56 75 43 78 46 / 60 10 0 0 0
KLFT 62 73 47 77 48 / 60 40 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GRIFFIN/KUYPER
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