Pacific Northwest Research Station

Title: Projecting national forest inventories for the 2000 RPA timber assessment.

Author: Mills, John R.; Zhou, Xiaoping.

Date: 2003

Source: Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-568. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 58 p

Station ID: GTR-PNW-568

Description: National forest inventories were projected in a study that was part of the 2000 USDA Forest Service Resource Planning Act (RPA) timber assessment. This paper includes an overview of the status and structure of timber inventory of the National Forest System and presents 50-year projections under several scenarios. To examine a range of possible outcomes, results are shown for five removals scenarios that incorporate assumptions from both current and past studies of wood flows and harvesting on national forests. In addition, two projections were developed to examine the effects of volume reductions associated with large-scale disturbance events, such as fires, insects, and disease. Projections were made by region and forest type by using the aggregated timberland assessment system and plot-level inventory data with methods consistent with procedures followed for private timberlands in the assessment. The results of projected inventory volume differ across regions, but the total inventory of both softwood and hardwood forest types is shown to increase in all scenarios. One result is a shift in area to older age classes. Initially, 15 percent of the timberland is classified as stands older than 150 years; under the base scenario with disturbance, this area will increase to 32 percent by 2050. This shift means that in the future, a larger share of U.S. timberland is projected to support mature and old forest conditions.

Keywords: National forests, timber supply, modeling, inventory projection, yield function, seral stage, public policy

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Citation

Mills, John R.; Zhou, Xiaoping.  2003.  Projecting national forest inventories for the 2000 RPA timber assessment..   Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-568. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 58 p