Pacific Northwest Research Station

Title: The future of housing in the United States: an econometric model of long-term predictions for the 2000 RPA timber assessment.

Author: Montgomery, Claire A.

Date: 2001

Source: Res. Pap. PNW-RP-531. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 20 p

Station ID: RP-PNW-531

Description: This report presents historical trends and future projections of forest, agricultural, and urban and other land uses for the South-Central United States. A land use share model is used to investigate the relation between the areas of land in alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Two different versions of the empirical model are estimated, depending on the stumpage price series used to calculate net returns from forest land: model 1 uses sawtimber prices and model 2 uses pulpwood price series. This leads to two sets of land use projections. We found that landowners are more responsive to changes in pulpwood prices than to those in sawtimber prices. The fitted econometric models were used to generate projections of future land use to 2050, given the projections on population and assuming 0.5-percent annual stumpage price increases. Although there were differences in magnitudes of changes, both sets of projections showed the same general trends of land use allocations over the next 50 years. The category urban and other land continuously increases owing to population growth, and timberland expands owing to assumed stumpage price increases. Agricultural land declines to compensate for the amount of increases of timberland and urban and other land.

Keywords: Land use, Resource Planning Act assessment, projections (forest area), land rents

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Citation

Montgomery, Claire A.  2001.  The future of housing in the United States: an econometric model of long-term predictions for the 2000 RPA timber assessment..   Res. Pap. PNW-RP-531. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 20 p