Pacific Northwest Research Station

Title: Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region.

Author: Flora, Donald F.; McGInnls, Wendy J.

Date: 1992

Source: Res. Pap. PNW-RP-445. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 15 p

Station ID: RP-PNW-445

Description: Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model encompassing interactions between Pacific Rim and onshore markets and between logs and lumber. Log prices are expected to rise markedly despite the industry recession. Shipments onshore and abroad are declining, and our analysis offers little encouragement for stability. The log-lumber cost-price squeeze will not abate soon, and the capacity of the region to supply wood products demands onshore and abroad will diminish markedly, although by less than reductions in planned harvests would suggest.

Keywords: Markets (external), supply and demand (forest products), trade (Pacific Rim), log exports, lumber exports, spotted owl, forest planning

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Citation

Flora, Donald F.; McGInnls, Wendy J.  1992.  Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region..   Res. Pap. PNW-RP-445. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 15 p