Pacific Southwest

Title: Chapter 37: Population Trends of the Marbled Murrelet Projected From Demographic Analyses

Author: Beissinger, Steven B.

Date: 1995

Source: In: Ralph, C. John; Hunt, George L., Jr.; Raphael, Martin G.; Piatt, John F., Technical Editors. 1995. Ecology and conservation of the Marbled Murrelet. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-152. Albany, CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; p. 385-394

Station ID: GTR-PSW-152

Description: A demographic model of the Marbled Murrelet is developed to explore likely population trends and factors influencing them. The model was structured to use field data on juvenile ratios, collected near the end of the breeding season and corrected for date of census, to estimate fecundity. Survivorship was estimated for the murrelet based on comparative analyses of allometric relationships from 10 species of alcids. Juvenile ratios were generally low, and were higher for counts made from shore or in kelp beds (typically 10 percent) than conducted offshore (<5 percent). Annual survivorship was strongly related to body size in alcids. Survival for the Marbled Murrelet was predicted to be 0.845 and range to 0.90. Lambda, the expected annual growth rate of the population, was estimated for likely combinations of fecundity and survival, and indicated that under all combinations murrelet populations are expected to be declining. Based on the best data, rates of decline are predicted to be 4-6 percent per year, but the rate of decline could conceivably be twice as large. Studies in Alaska and British Columbia suggest population declines at 3-5 percent per year, supporting model predictions. Results are discussed in relation to the factors affecting murrelet population growth, and the use of juvenile ratios for monitoring murrelet populations.

Keywords: 

View and Print this Publication (155 KB )

Publication Notes: 

• We recommend that you also print this page and attach it to the printout of the article, to retain the full citation information.
• This article was written and prepared by U.S. Government employees on official time, and is therefore in the public domain.
• You may send email to pubrequest@fs.f ed.us to request a hard copy of this publication. (Please specify exactly which publication you are requesting and your mailing address.)

 Get the latest version of the Adobe Acrobat reader or Acrobat Reader for Windows with Search and Accessibility

Citation

Beissinger, Steven B.   1995.  Chapter 37: Population Trends of the Marbled Murrelet Projected From Demographic Analyses.   In: Ralph, C. John; Hunt, George L., Jr.; Raphael, Martin G.; Piatt, John F., Technical Editors. 1995. Ecology and conservation of the Marbled Murrelet. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-152. Albany, CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; p. 385-394.