Turning the Tide on Illegal Immigration

An important story is taking place along our nation’s southern border that has largely escaped the attention of the American public and the national media. For the first time in decades, a historic shift is occurring in illegal immigrant traffic into the United States.

From Texas to California, fewer immigrants are attempting to enter our country illegally by breaching our southern border. Annual immigration trends also have begun to reverse direction, favoring legal immigration over illegal immigration. And third-party indicators, such as remittances to Mexico and Latin America, have plummeted. In short, the tide of illegal immigration is turning.

According to a recent Pew Hispanic Center study, for the first time since 2001, there has been no net increase in illegal immigration in the United States, and it is likely that there has been a net decrease in the number of illegal immigrants in our country. To be sure, a down economy has caused some to rethink whether to illegally cross the border. But tighter border security, a significant expansion of the Border Patrol, the deployment of new technology, and increased interior enforcement are having an undeniable impact.

On a recent visit to Arizona, I had an opportunity to tour the border with the Chief of the Tucson Border Patrol sector to see firsthand some of these changes. As a result of new border infrastructure, including hundreds of miles of physical and virtual fencing, additional Border Patrol agents, and stepped up enforcement, arrests of illegal aliens have dropped 16 percent in the Tucson sector over the past year. Across Arizona, they have fallen 22 percent. For the entire southern border, they have decreased 17 percent. These are the lowest levels in more than a decade.

Moreover, in areas where the Border Patrol has implemented Operation Streamline, a program where illegal immigrants are prosecuted and face jail time for crossing the border, even greater reductions have occurred. In Yuma, Arizona, apprehensions have fallen 68 percent. In Del Rio, Texas, they have dropped 46 percent. These are not seasonal anomalies. They reflect increased border security and the deterrence that comes with the prospect of spending time in a federal detention facility.

The Border Patrol’s own estimates of known illegal entries also support these trends. Known illegal entries are internal estimates of the number of immigrants who have crossed the border but managed to elude capture. Tracking these figures helps the Border Patrol assess the volume and pattern of illegal crossing on a given day so it can adjust its tactics and deployment of personnel. Over the past fiscal year, known entrants eluding capture dropped below actual arrests, suggesting that not only are fewer people attempting to illegally enter the country, but even fewer are successfully making it through.

Beyond the statistics, there are numerous anecdotal signs of positive change along the border. Communities once plagued by drug smuggling and criminal activity are flourishing. Crime rates have dropped in many areas. And businesses that once relied on illegal labor are dying down or closing their doors.

Unfortunately, there have been some negative consequences of heightened enforcement, namely a rise in cross-border violence by criminal organizations fighting to control territory and smuggling routes. Assaults against the Border Patrol rose 11 percent over the past year. It is a regrettable fact of stepped up border security, but one that is necessary for the security of our country.

Despite this progress, there is still more work to do. Our challenges at the border have been years in the making, and they will take time to fully address, including action by Congress to enact immigration reform. In the interim, it is important that we not scale back or surrender the progress we’ve achieved in just a few short years.

Proponents of immigration reform should remember that part of the reason past efforts have failed in Congress is because the government lacked credibility on the issue of border security.

Over the past two years, we have attempted to establish that credibility and help pave the way for a more comprehensive solution, including a temporary worker program that will take pressure off the border and address the underlying motive for illegal immigration. Until that time, it would be a mistake to allow the tide to turn in the wrong direction. To do so would only set back efforts to control the border, endanger our country, and create additional barriers to future reform.

Michael Chertoff