Contract All | Expand All

Solar Activity and Regional Streamflow

Kansas District, U.S. Geological Survey
AUTHOR: Charles A. Perry, Research Hydrologist

Variations of Solar Activity Affect Regional Hydro-climate

This research focuses on the hypothesis that variations in solar activity affect regional streamflow. Variations in solar activity may control the amount of energy that reaches the Earth’s surface. These variations in solar energy may help create ocean temperature anomalies that can persist for years and move with the ocean currents. The ocean temperature anomalies can have an effect on meteorological factors such as atmospheric vorticity and moisture, both important for precipitation formation. Varying amounts of precipitation controls the regional hydrology including streamflow, groundwater, and lake levels.

Variations in solar activity are manifested in the magnetic structure of the Sun, total solar irradiance, and the strength of the solar wind. Solar wind speed and density directly affect the flux of galactic cosmic rays to the Earth and variations in the Earth’s geomagnetic field. Each of these parameters varies on an approximate 11-year cycle than can range from 9 to 14 years in length which over time displays a unique “fingerprint.” The long-term streamflow record of the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri exhibits a similar “fingerprint.” The historic records of the geomagnetic index aa and 36 month moving averages of Mississippi River streamflow are compared in the following graph.

 

Comparison of the 36-month moving average of the Mississippi River streamflow and the Geomagnetic Index AA. Streamflow has been lagged 34 years after the Geomagnetic data.

 

 

The mechanism responsible for the linkage is thought to involve five important processes:

1. Variable solar activity causes variation in total solar irradiance (energy) that reaches the top of the Earth’s atmosphere. Variable solar activity controls the flux of galactic cosmic rays which may affect the formation of low-level clouds that control atmospheric albedo (reflectance).Variations in total solar energy reaching the Earth’s surface are amplified by changes in atmospheric albedo;
2. The variable solar energy is absorbed by tropical oceans creating large pools with different amounts of stored energy;
3. Pools of ocean water with varying amounts of stored energy are transported by major ocean currents (Ocean Conveyor Belt) to other global locations where;
4. Differential evaporation rates from oceanic areas alter global atmospheric pressure patterns (i.e., jetstream position and associated atmospheric vorticity);
5. These patterns dictate regional precipitation and temperature distribution and, consequently, the regional hydrology.

    

    

   This mechanism is outlined in two papers (Perry, 2006) and (Perry, 2007), and is shown schematically below.

All rivers in the United States appear to follow the solar signal as seen in the graph below which compares the 1st principle component of U.S. Streamflow (courtesy Greg McCabe, USGS) with a Cosmic Ray/Total Solar Irradiance combination index.

 

 

Papers On Line

 

Perry, C.A., 2007, Evidence for a physical linkage between galactic cosmic rays and regional climate time series: Advances in Space Research, Vol 40, doi:10.1016/j.asr2007.02.079, p.353-364.

 

Perry, C.A., 2006, Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by Pacific sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations: International Journal of Climatology, v. 26, p. 207-218.

 

Perry, C.A., 2006, News Release, Variations in Sun’s Output Linked to Midwestern Floods and Droughts, February 28, 2006.

 

Perry, C.A., 2000a, A regression model for annual streamflow in the upper Mississippi River Basin based on solar irradiance, in West, G.J., and Buffaloe, Lauren, eds., Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Pacific Climate Workshop, Santa Catalina Island, California, May 24-27, 1999; Interagency Ecological Program for Sacramento-San Joanquin Delta Technical Report 65, p. 161-170.

 

Perry, C.A., and Hsu, K.J., 2000, Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change: Proceedings of National Academy of Science, v. 97, no. 23, p. 1244-12438.

 

Perry, C.A., 1995, Association between solar-irradiance variations and hydroclimatology of selected regions of the USA, in Proceedings of 6th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Galway, Ireland, June 19-23, 1995: Steering Committee for International Meetings on Statistican Climatology, p. 239-242.

 

Perry, C.A., 1994, Solar-irradiance variations and regional precipitation fluctuations in the western United States: International Journal of Climatology, v. 14, November 1994, p. 969-983.

Hydrologic, Meteorologic, and Climatologic Data

Climate Related Bibliography

 

Posters

AGU 2007 Fall Meeting: Suggested Physics between Cosmic Ray Flux and Regional Hydroclimate

 

For more information contact:
Charles Perry
U.S. Geological Survey
4821 Quail Crest Place
Lawrence, Kansas 66049-3839
(785) 832-3549
email: cperry@usgs.gov