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FHWA-RD-00-022
FOREWORD
This report was produced as part of a contract "Determine Causes of Driver
Maneuver Errors," which called for a sequence of analytic and empirical
research efforts in order to understand where and when drivers suffer misperceptions
that lead to driving maneuver errors. In addition, the contract called for the
development of highway safety countermeasures concepts to address those errors.
This report presents a brief discussion of the purpose and scope of the project,
describes the analytical and empirical activities, and presents the recommended
countermeasures developed with the help of an expert panel. The recommended
countermeasures merit further evaluation; in most cases, they are not recommended
for immediate implementation.
Copies of this report can be obtained through the Research and Technology Report
Center, 9701 Philadelphia Court, Unit Q, Lanham, Maryland 20706, telephone:
(301) 577-0818, fax: (301) 577-1421, or the National Technical Information Service
(NTIS), 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161, telephone: (703)
605-6000, fax: (703) 605-6900.
Michael F. Trentacoste
Director, Office of Safety
Research and Development
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1. Report No.
FHWA-RD-00-022
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2.
Government Accession No. |
3.
Recipient's Catalog No. |
4. Title and Subtitle
Development of Countermeasures for Driver Maneuver Errors
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5. Report Date
December 1999
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6. Performing Organization
Code
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7. Author(s)
Neil D. Lerner, Geoffrey V. Steinberg, and Fred R. Hanscom
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8. Performing Organization
Report No.
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9. Performing Organization
Name and Address
Westat
1650 Research Boulevard
Rockville, Maryland 20850
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10. Work Unit No.
(TRAIS)
NCP No. 3A6A-1162
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11. Contract or Grant
No.
DTFH61-96-C-00015
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12. Sponsoring Agency
Name and Address
Office of Safety Research and Development
Federal Highway Administration
6300 Georgetown Pike
McLean, Virginia 22101-2296
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13. Type of Report
and Period Covered
Task D Report
3/97 - 1/99
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14. Sponsoring Agency
Code
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15. Supplementary
Notes
Contracting Officer's Technical Representative (COTR): Joseph Moyer,
HSR-30; Kate Woerheide, SAIC. We acknowledge the helpful cooperation
of Frank Barickman, VRTC, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,
for the use of and technical support with the DASCAR instrumented vehicle.
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16. Abstract
Drivers may make errors that result in a collision with another vehicle,
even when they are aware of the presence of the conflicting vehicle.
This is because perceptual judgments about time, space, and speed, are
imperfect, and can lead to misjudgments about the adequacy of a situation
to allow some driving maneuver. Drivers may err in thinking there is
more time available for the maneuver than is actually the case; or err
in thinking the maneuver takes less time to execute than it actually
does. Either misperception could lead to a decision to go ahead with
a maneuver with less margin of safety than the driver assumes. Misperceptions
of the time available of time required for various driving maneuvers
under a range of conditions were studied in this project. In the laboratory
experiment, research participants viewed video scenes, filmed from a
driver's perspective, of a wide variety of situations. For each scene,
the viewers made judgments about when some event would occur (e.g.,
approaching vehicle reaches them) or when some maneuver would be completed
(e.g., own vehicle clears roadway when making a crossing maneuver).
Participants' judgments were compared with actual values (for time available)
or best estimates from engineering equations and empirical data (for
time or distance required). A parallel on-the-road experiment, using
similar procedures and a subset of the laboratory situations, was used
to validate and benchmark the laboratory findings. The study found a
general tendency for people to underestimate the time required to complete
a maneuver. Across a range of maneuvers, about 60 percent of all time
or distance required judgments were underestimated, relative
to engineering and empirical estimates. This misjudgment is safety-critical,
because driver perception that a maneuver will take less time than is
actually the case may lead to decisions to accept maneuver opportunities
that actually afford a smaller margin of error than the driver perceives.
Such misestimates were particularly common for judgments of the time
to achieve the prevailing traffic speed during turning of merging maneuvers,
and for the time until one's vehicle reaches an intersection ahead.
For judgments of the time available for a maneuver, the error
was usually in a safety-conservative direction. That is, people felt
they had less time than they actually did, so would be less likely to
attempt a maneuver. However, even for time available judgments, there
were meaningful numbers of safety-critical errors (overestimates of
time available), especially for estimates of yellow signal phase time
remaining and estimates related to a passing scenario. When the combined
errors related to both maneuver requirements and availability were jointly
considered, some situations emerged as particularly meriting consideration
for safety countermeasures. These included: (1) approach to signalized
intersections; (2) turns onto higher-speed roadways; (3) freeway merges;
(4) passing; and (5) headway maintenance. Following the analysis of
the experiment, efforts were undertaken, aided by an expert panel, to
develop primarily infrastructure-based countermeasure concepts to address
these problems. A number of promising ideas based around roadway design
and operations were recommended for formal evaluation.
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17. Key Words
Driver maneuver errors, safety, research program, human factors, older
drivers.
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18. Distribution
Statement
No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the
National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161.
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19. Security Classification
(of this report)
Unclassified
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20.
Security Classification (of this page)
Unclassified
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21. No. of Pages
57
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22. Price
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Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction
of completed page authorized
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