Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
000 FXUS63 KSGF 211205 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 705 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008 .DISCUSSION... AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI HIGHWAY 5 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE ON THE WAY FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER NETWORK REVEAL A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A STRATUS DECK IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE 305K SURFACE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OZARKS. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MORNING FOG WITH THE GREATEST RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES AND RIVERS. THE EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH DAY TIME HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CHANCES DWINDLING WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE OF NEVADA AT 07Z WILL KICK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICTING THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO AN OCCLUDED LOW ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIM AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OZARKS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET DEPICT THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...DRY WEATHER WITH WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S LOOK TO BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. ANGLE && .AVIATION... IFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST EAST OF JOPLIN. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS LESS THAN 1 MILE. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. FOSTER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ057-058- 068>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106. KS...NONE. && $$