Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 051122 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 523 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CENTERED ON STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE STORM SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG 120-130KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU SO FAR TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP...AIDED BY THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE PLAINS. THIS WAS ALSO AIDING IN SOME WARM SECTOR CONVECTION BREAKING OUT TO OUR NORTH AT THE MOMENT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF IN THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST TODAY WEST OF THE PLATEAU WITH DEWPOINTS TRYING TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAYS WEATHER WITH SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PLATEAU. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MORNING HWO. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS THERE SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN ACTION IS SLATED FOR TONIGHT HOWEVER FOR CONVECTION. STRONG UPPER JET STREAK 110-120KT WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING WHILE LOW STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. STRONG 850 WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50KTS AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. MAIN HAZARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS SQUALL LINE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHEAR STILL PRETTY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LINE. STORM EVENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY MIDDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTHWEST. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S IN CENTRAL MO BY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS IN THAT REGION. LINDENBERG && .AVIATION... THERE ARE SEVERAL AVIATION HAZARDS THAT PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM THE SPRINGFIELD UPPER AIR RADIOSONDE...47 KNOTS WERE MEASURED AT AROUND 2000 FEET. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP OFF SOMETIME THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM AT 2000 FEET WILL TRANSPORT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A LOW LEVEL JET TO SPEED UP TO 45-50 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET BY 02Z THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE JOPLIN AIRPORT BETWEEN 03Z - 09Z. MEANWHILE SPRINGFIELD WILL BE IMPACTED BETWEEN 07-12Z. THESE STORMS MAY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR AND MVFR WHEN DIRECTLY OVER ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT. STAY TUNED...IT WILL BE A BUSY NIGHT TONIGHT. CRAMER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
