Project Number: 6208-13000-006-03
Project Type: Specific Cooperative Agreement

Start Date: Oct 01, 2007
End Date: Sep 30, 2009

Objective:
Forecast information based on climatic projections (such as the development of the El Nino Southern Oscillation) is potentially useful in managing agricultural crops over the Southern High Plains. To estimate the value of that forecast information and explore crop management strategies that respond to it, analysis will be conducted that assesses the utility of forecast information and the economic consequences of using various crop management strategies in response to climatic conditions.

Approach:
The analysis will consist of a sequence of annual crop production simulations in which crop management decisions are guided by climatic forecasts. Tasks will include: collection and analysis of crop growth and yield data from existing studies for use in calibrating and testing crop growth simulation models; application of crop growth models to simulate crop yields for different soil types under various sequences of weather conditions; simulation of crop yields in response to different irrigation management strategies, including dryland crop production; collection of economic data on crop prices and the costs of crop production and management; application of economic analysis to simulated crop yields to assess the relative profitability of various crop management strategies in response to variable weather and soil conditions; recommendation of crop management strategies that favor sustainability of crop production and conservation of soil and water resources and show optimum utilization of forecast climatic information.