The Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting
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Papers and Presentations

As DOT staff deliver public presentations and papers on behalf of the Center, these will be made available through the Center's website. In general, such documents will be shared as Adobe Portable Document Format (PDF) files.

  • Emissions Analysis of Freight Transport Comparing Land-Side and Water-Side Short-Sea Routes: Development and Demonstration of a Freight Routing and Emissions Analysis Tool (FREAT).
    View Online Report Added 03/28/2008

    This study is aimed at developing a methodology and tools to effectively compare emissions from land-side and water-side freight transport alternatives. The research team will develop and demonstrate a model that analyzes total fuel-cycle GHG and other emissions associated with transporting freight along land-side and water-side routes. The project will also evaluate tradeoffs among pollutants, costs, and travel time for moving freight between two points and will identify optimal modal combinations within a network of travel paths that would lead to minimizing emissions, costs, and/or travel time. Research conducted by the University of Delaware, College of Marine Studies.

  • The Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study.
    View Online Report Added 01/07/2008

    The DOT Center is partnering with the U.S. Geological Survey to undertake a multi-year research program to study how short and long-term changes in climate could affect transportation systems in the U.S. central Gulf Coast region, and how transportation decision-makers could address possible impacts. This study is one of the CCSP's twenty-one synthesis and assessment products. .

  • The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure
    View Online Report Added 01/08/2008

    The study uses multiple data sources to quantify the potential impact of sea level rise on land and transportation infrastructure in coastal areas of the eastern United States. The study will provide several relevant pieces of information imperative to the security of our infrastructure, including: (1) digital elevation models (DEMs) to describe the elevation in the coastal areas and create tidal surfaces to describe the current sea water levels; (2) identify land and transportation infrastructure that, without protection, will be inundated regularly by the ocean or be at risk of periodic inundation due to storm surge; and (3) provide statistics to demonstrate the potential extent of inundated and at-risk land surge at given temporal intervals. Research conducted by ICF Consulting. This project is also listed below in the "Modeling" research area.

  • Integrating Transportation, Energy Efficiency, and GHG Reduction Policies: A Guidebook for State and Local Policy Makers
    *View Online Report (Login required) Added 03/28/2007

    This project presents a unique opportunity to work with EPA to develop a guidebook that evaluates the emission impacts of transportation policy measures. The project complements EPA's focus on demand-side measures with an additional section on quantification and evaluation of vehicle technologies and fuel policies. The guidebook is a resource for state DOTs and MPOs in establishing GHG inventories and deciding among various mitigation strategies. Research conducted by the Center for Clean Air Policy.

  • Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change
    View Executive Summary MS Word Version (5.1 MB) Added 09/28/2006
    View Final Report MS Word Version (5.1 MB) Added 09/28/2006
    View Executive Summary PDF Version (496 KB) Added 09/28/2006
    View Final Report PDF Version (496 KB) Added 09/28/2006

    Aviation is integral to the global economy and transportation. Its demand is projected to triple by 2025. However, a lack of understanding of aviation impacts on environment, and hence the appropriate action, could impede that growth. The climate impact of emissions is aviation's primary long-term environmental issue. The FAA and NASA co-sponsored a workshop on this issue to: review the current state of knowledge; identify gaps in scientific knowledge and prioritize research; recommend leveraging current and future research; and explore development of impact metrics for evaluating impacts and tradeoff options. This workshop, which was attended by more than 30 international science experts, recommended coordination and expansion of existing and planned climate research programs focusing on aviation. The workshop's findings and recommendations are presented in this report.

  • Assessment of the Greenhouse Gas Emission Benefits of Heavy Duty Natural Gas Vehicles in the United States
    View Final Report MS Word Version (5.1 MB) Added 09/28/2006
    View Final Report PDF Version (496 KB) Added 09/28/2006

    Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Benefits of Heavy Duty Natural Gas Vehicles in the United States. More accurate emission factors for heavy duty vehicles are necessary as organizations are proactively implementing fuel switching projects and purchasing natural gas vehicle fleets, and claiming GHG benefits. GHG reduction estimates for fuel switching projects are often based on estimates of CO2 only, without considering increases in CH4 emissions from natural gas vehicles. To address this knowledge gap, SAIC and WVU extracted previously unpublished data from heavy duty vehicle tests undertaken by WVU and analyzed CO2 and CH4 emissions from different fuels, vehicle types, engine technologies, and drive cycles. Although the data are insufficient to draw universal conclusions about natural gas relative to diesel use and the resulting emission factors were not statistically significant, the CO2 and CH4 data results for CNG buses tested by WVU are generally consistent with the results of recent emission tests on some of the same vehicle types, fuel types, and drive cycles. The available data suggest that for refuse trucks and school buses operating in conditions similar to the central business district driving cycle, total GHG emissions from natural gas-fueled vehicles may be equivalent or greater than diesel-fueled vehicles.

  • Assessing State Long Range Transportation Planning Initiatives in the Northeast for Climate and Energy Benefits
    View Final Report MS Word Version (1.2 MB) Added 01/19/2006
    View Final Report PDF Version (696 KB) Added 01/19/2006

    This study identifies best state long range transportation planning (LRTP) practice for climate protection and energy efficiency outcomes. Given rapidly rising levels of domestic oil consumption and growing global attention to the challenge of GHG emissions, an analysis of strategic transportation planning initiatives to address how well energy and climate change issues are addressed in long range transportation planning is important. On the basis of interviews with LRTP professionals, a literature search, and a review of state LRTPs in the 29 states with Climate Action Plans, or gubernatorial initiatives directing state agencies to coordinate planning for climate and energy efficiency outcomes, 15 state transportation plans were selected to further evaluate long range planning processes that contain both a specific intention to integrate climate and energy outcomes into long range transportation planning and achieve best practice by state Department of Transportations (DOTs).

  • Estimating Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Use in New York State.
    View Online Report Added 05/25/2005

    This report, completed in partnership with the New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT), assesses the transportation-related components of the New York State Energy Plan (SEP). The goals of the project included: the development of baseline and projected energy use and CO2 emissions for the State and by sector; the development of baseline and projected energy use and CO2 emissions for each metropolitan planning organization (MPO) in the State by mode; an assessment of MPO experiences and responses to the new energy/GHG analysis contained in the SEP; and, the evaluation of potential energy savings and GHG reductions from selected transportation strategies.

  • Stock Modeling for Railroad Locomotives and Marine Vessels
    [DOT, September 2004]
    View Final Report MS Word Version (764 KB) Added 02/28/2005
    View Final Report PDF Version (1.82 MB) Added 02/28/2005

    Relying on available historical data regarding the domestic introduction and in-service populations of locomotives and marine vessels, this report estimates corresponding survival curves; that is, functions that describe the fraction of equipment likely to remain in service after a given number of years of service. Survival curves are used to, among other things, estimate the impact new equipment will have on future energy and emissions. For light-duty highway vehicles, for which available information is robust, such survival curves are well developed. Information regarding locomotives and marine vessels is much more scarce. Consistent with anecdotal evidence, this report estimates that locomotives and marine vessels remain in service considerably longer than light-duty highway vehicles.

  • Greenhouse Gas Reduction Through State and Local Transportation Planning
    [DOT, September 2003]
    View Final Report MS Word Appendices (1.98 MB) Added 10/07/2003
    View Final Report PDF Version (1.11 MB) Added 10/07/2003

    Evaluates how states and local areas might contribute to GHG emission reduction through transportation planning. Seven case studies focus on the broad transportation planning process, strategies and other actions selected, and GHG emission reductions accomplished or projected. Considers both transportation planning by state DOTs, metropolitan planning organizations, and local transportation agencies, and energy, environmental, or land use planning by other state and local agencies that considers climate change and transportation policies, investments, and strategies.

  • Fuel Options for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles
    [DOT, September 2003]
    View Final Report MS Word Version (1.42 MB) Added 9/30/2003
    View Final Report MS Word Appendices (818 KB) Added 9/30/2003
    View Final Report PDF Version (1.2 MB) Added 9/30/2003

    An assessment of the potential of gasoline substitutes to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by automobiles and light-duty trucks. Reductions in future GHG emissions are estimated under specific assumptions about growth in light-duty vehicle travel and the replacement of gasoline by various other fuels, both in the near term (10 years) and over the longer term (25 years).

  • Modeling of Advanced Technology Vehicles
    [DOT, September 2003]
    View Final Report MS Word Version (1 MB) Updated 9/26/2003
    View Final Report PDF Version (970 KB) Added 8/28/2003

    Reviews some currently-used methods for representing advanced technology vehicles in engineering and market simulation models, and considers the potential for simple generalized methodologies for use in the latter. Focuses on light-duty hybrid electric vehicles as an illustrative case and also considers possible extension to other vehicle types (e.g., aircraft, buses, locomotives, and marine vessels).

  • Passenger Ferries, Air Quality, and Greenhouse Gases: Can System Expansion Result in Fewer Emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area?
    [CALSTART, July 2002]
    View Final Report Updated 8/7/2003

    Evaluates the potential greenhouse gas benefits achievable through better integration of passenger ferries with land transportation systems, considering ferry technology and fueling options. The San Francisco Bay Area was analyzed as a point of reference and as a potential basis for consideration of other areas where passenger ferries might be effective.
  • The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation: Workshop Summary and Proceedings
    [October 1-2, 2002]
    View Summary and Papers Updated 8/27/2003

    Summary and eighteen discussion papers from October 2002 workshop exploring the potential impacts of climate change on transportation systems and services. The workshop brought together sixty-four transportation professionals, regional and national stakeholders, and experts in climate change, the environment, planning, and energy to provide input on research priorities for the Center.

  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Road Transport
    [M. Savonis, January 2001]
    View PDF Version(44 KB) Added 2/26/2001
    View PowerPoint Version (137 KB) Added 8/1/2002

    Summarizes OECD working group study of carbon dioxide emissions from highway transportation. Reviews recent trends in the U.S. and twelve other countries, identifies relevant policies and measures, identifies issues associated with assessment methods, and reviews outlook for future emissions as related to trends in population, economic growth, and fleet turnover. Presented January 8, 2001.

  • Transport-Relevant Policies and Measures: U.S. Experience
    [K. Green, April 2000]
    View Online Version Added 8/1/2002

    Discusses distinction between "best" and "relevant" policies, reviews broad U.S. goals for transportation, and identifies some U.S. policies that are relevant to transportation and climate change. Presented at UNFCCC Workshop on Best Practices in Policies and Measures, Copenhagen, April 11-13, 2000.