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FAF1 National Summary: 1998, 2010, 2020

The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) recognizes that the smooth flow of freight in the United States and across its borders is important to our nation's economy. In recent years, increases in the volume of freight have strained the transportation network in some locations and exacerbated conflicts between the traveling public and freight carriers. Growing international trade has also changed the geography of freight movements within the United States, placing greater pressure on gateways, ports, and border crossings nodes in the system that are potential bottlenecks for the movement of freight.

Understanding future freight activity is important for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment and operational strategies. To help decisionmakers identify areas in need of capacity improvements, USDOT created the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF), a comprehensive database and policy analysis tool, to examine geographic relationships between freight movement and infrastructure capacity. FAF was developed from several private and government databases, including the Bureau of Transportation's Commodity Flow Survey.

FAF provides detailed information on freight flows for the truck, rail, water, and air modes and for various commodities. It also forecasts freight activities for 2010 and 2020.

Table 1. U.S. Freight Shipments by Tons and Value
Mode
Tons (millions)
Value
(billions $)
1998 2010 2020 1998 2010 2020
Total 15,271 21,376 25,848 9,312 18,339 29,954
empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell
Domestic empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell
Air 9 18 26 545 1,308 2,246
Highway 10,439 14,930 18,130 6,656 12,746 20,241
Rail 1,954 2,528 2,894 530 848 1,230
Water 1,082 1,345 1,487 146 250 358
Total, Domestic 13,484 18,820 22,537 7,876 15,152 24,075
empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell
International empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell empty cell
Air 9 16 24 530 1,182 2,259
Highway 419 733 1,069 772 1,724 3,131
Rail 358 518 699 116 248 432
Water 136 199 260 17 34 57
Other [a] 864 1,090 1,259 NA NA NA
Total, International 1,787 2,556 3,311 1,436 3,187 5,879
Note: Modal numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. NA = Not Available.
aThe "Other" category includes international shipments that moved via pipeline or by an unspecified mode.

FAF Findings

  • The U.S. transportation system carried over 15 billion tons of freight valued at over $9 trillion in 1998. Domestic freight movements accounted for nearly $8 trillion of the total value of shipments. By 2020, the U.S. transportation system is expected to handle cargo valued at nearly $30 trillion. (Maps showing major freight flows for various modes are shown on the reverse.)
  • The nation's highway system, and our enormous truck fleet, moved 71 percent of the total tonnage and 80 percent of the total value of U.S. shipments in 1998. Although trucks made the vast majority of local deliveries, they also carried large volumes of freight between regional and national markets. Water and rail also moved significant shares of total tonnage, but they accounted for much smaller shares when measured on a value basis. As expected, air freight moved less than 1 percent of total tonnage but carried 12 percent of the total value of shipments in 1998.
  • Domestic freight volumes will grow by more than 65 percent, increasing from 13.5 billion tons in 1998 to 22.5 billion tons in 2020. The forecast shows that the air and truck modes will experience the fastest growth. Domestic air cargo tonnage is projected to nearly triple over this period, although its share of total tonnage is expected to remain small. Trucks are expected to move over 75 percent more tons in 2020, capturing a somewhat larger share of total tonnage. While volumes moved by the rail and domestic water modes are also projected to increase over the forecast period, they will not grow as dramatically primarily because of anticipated slower growth in demand for many of the key commodities carried by these modes.
  • International trade accounted for 12 percent of total U.S. freight tonnage in 1998 and is forecast to grow faster than domestic trade. International trade is projected to increase by 2.8 percent annually between 1998 and 2020, nearly doubling in volume. This growth in international trade is likely to present challenges to U.S. ports and border gateways.

Figure 1. Freight Flows by Truck: 1998 (daily truck volumes)

Red lines on map of the continental United States (with Alaska and Hawaii inserted at a different scale) indicate daily truck volumes for 1998.

Federal Highway Administration
Note: Alaska and Hawaii are at a different scale than the continental United States.
PDF version of map

Figure 2. Freight Flows by Truck: 2020 (daily truck volumes)

Heavy red lines on map of the continental United States (with Alaska and Hawaii inserted at a different scale) indicate significant increases in daily truck volumes for 2020.

Federal Highway Administration
Note: Alaska and Hawaii are at a different scale than the continental United States.
PDF version of map

Figure 3. Freight Flows by Rail: 1998 (tons)

Red lines on map of the continental United States indicate tons of freight moved by rail in 1998.

Federal Railroad Administration

Figure 4. Freight Flows by Water: 1998 (tons)

Blue lines on map showing the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii indicate tons of freight moved by water in 1998.

Federal Highway Administration

More Information

A series of FAF products are available on the Office of Freight Management and Operations website noted below. FAF outputs include freight flow maps for states, modes, and gateways; detailed databases on traffic flows and commodity movements; information on the methodologies used to develop FAF; and forecast assumptions.

The U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) is also developing a series of state transportation profiles. For more information and to obtain a copy of the BTS reports, please call 202-366-DATA.

Rolf Schmitt
Office of Freight Management and Operations
Federal Highway Administration
(202) 366-9258
rolf.schmitt@fhwa.dot.gov
Office of Operations