Democracy and Governance in Jamaica
The Development Challenge: Jamaica is likely to experience one of its bloodiest years, with murders reaching clsoe to 1,500 by the end of last year, a remarkable statistic for a country of 2.6 million people. Hurricane Ivan battered the island and set back the government's growth, inflation, and balanced budget plans. Growth, which was expected to reach more than 3% in 2004, slipped to below 1.5%, with the agricultural sector taking a particularly heavy beating. Inflation is expected to reach 13% vs. the 9% target planned for 2004. Instead of a balanced budget, the government will have a fiscal deficit of $23.6 billion.
These trends complicate Jamaica's efforts to make headway in reducing its massive debt burden. The government continues to work hard to manage its fiscal situation and generate the revenues to reliably pay its debt and to manage creeping increases in inflation, the exchange rate, and the deficit. These debt woes will only be resolved over the medium to long-term, meaning an extended period during which it will be hampered in making desirable (some say necessary) social and infrastructural investments.
Jamaica's difficulty in increasing its social and infrastructural investments contributes to the government's struggle to reduce crime and violence and to measurably improve good governance and the rule of law. Thus, the state is challenged to fulfill its most basic role -- that of ensuring citizen security. Jamaica's violent crime and reputation for corruption deter investment and increase the cost of doing business. Efforts to improve good governance and reduce corruption are not only critical to social and political stability, but figure prominently in Jamaica's ability to achieve economic competitiveness and sustained growth.
On the social front, Jamaica's young people face a myriad of risks, such as early sexual initiation, sexual and physical abuse, dropping out of school, unemployment, substance abuse and drug dealing, and violence. HIV/AIDS continues to spread indiscriminately throughout the island, aided by significant stigma and discrimination that keep the disease underground and foster reluctance for testing and treatment. Jamaica's poor-performing, under-funded education system is not reliably producing young people with adequate literacy and numeracy skills, much less the higher level skills needed to compete in an increasingly complex, competitive global marketplace.
If the country is to realize sustained economic growth, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) must create an enabling environment within which the private sector (not the government, which lacks the capacity) can be the catalyst for economic growth. In order for that growth to be sustained it must also be equitably distributed throughout the population, which means that efforts must be undertaken to address the need for growth and development in rural areas.
Compounding all of these challenges is the uncertainty arising from impending changes to the political landscape. The Prime Minister has indicated his intention to retire by 2006, about a year before elections are due. Similarly, the leadership of the opposition party, which has been held for almost 40 years by one individual, is also about to change. It is difficult to gauge the impact these political changes will have on Jamaica's policy directions and governmental priorities.
In contrast to the bleak picture painted above, there are several positive signs for Jamaica. The tourism sector has continued to experience significant growth, with the country achieving record numbers of cruise ship arrivals in 2004. Remittances from Jamaicans living abroad are estimated at over $1.5 billion in 2004. Many believe that remittances have overtaken tourism as the country's leading source of foreign exchange. However, most of the remittances come in to fuel consumption and the challenge is to find creative ways to leverage remittances more effectively.
(Excerpted from the 2006 Congressional Budget Justification for Jamaica)
Back to Top ^
|
