Democracy and Governance in Pakistan
The Development Challenge: Pakistan is of unquestioned strategic importance to the United States. With 159 million people, it is home to the world's second largest Muslim population. Pakistan has been a key cooperating nation in U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts in South Asia, and over the past year has made progress in improving relations with its neighbor to the east, India, in the conflict over Kashmir, and with Afghanistan, its neighbor to the west. In its endeavor to develop its own economy and restore full democracy, Pakistan faces daunting challenges: poverty, low literacy, little foreign investment, sectarian strife, and terrorism. A stable, democratic, economically thriving Pakistan is vital to U.S. interests in South Asia. The 9/11 Commission Report recommended that the United States "should be willing to make the difficult long-term commitment to the future of Pakistan."
Following the military overthrow of an elected government in 1999, national elections in October 2002 partially restored civilian government, with a National Assembly, four Provincial Assemblies, and a Prime Minister. The President is also the Chief of Army Staff. However, the legitimacy of the elections and continued control by a pro-military alliance continue to be the subject of concern. Civil society is emerging as a mechanism of citizen voice and accountability in a climate where feudal, tribal, and military authorities have long dominated, but much more needs to be done. The legislative and judicial branches of government also need considerable strengthening to be fully functioning democratic institutions.
The Musharraf Government, with support from the United States and other donors in the form of debt relief, pulled Pakistan from the brink of bankruptcy in 2001. With strong financial leadership by Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz (who became Prime Minister in August 2004), Pakistan has shown the political will for macro-economic and fiscal reform. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated from 2.9% in 2002 to 6% in 2003 and 2004, led by strong manufacturing growth, increased exports, and moderate service-sector and agricultural growth. However, progress in macro-economic reforms has not directly led to a decrease in poverty which remains widespread, particularly in agriculture, which constitutes roughly 25% of GDP but accounts for 50% of rural employment.
The current government also completed a Poverty Reduction Strategy and set ambitious targets for achievements in education, health, judicial reform, and the alleviation of poverty. Pakistan's literacy rate, among the world's lowest, greatly hampers its ability to become a modern, moderate state and to expand its economic base. Literacy averages 49% nationwide, but in remote tribal areas of the country can be as low as 0.5% for women. It is estimated that more than six million school age children are out of school. Because of the dearth of good public schools, hundreds of thousands end up in schools teaching only religious subjects (madrassahs). Public sector spending on education has increased slowly as the country emerges from its financial crisis, but is still low, around 1.9% to 2.2% of GDP. Continued high fertility rates -- well above four births per woman -- and the large number of youth mean that demand for schools, health care, water and sanitation services, and jobs will place increasing strains on Pakistan's fundamentally weak service delivery systems in the coming years.
(Excerpted from the 2006 Congressional Budget Justification for Pakistan)
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