Belarus
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The Development Challenge:
Fourteen years after independence, Belarus continues to regress steadily from aspirations for pursuing democratically-oriented governance and transitioning into a competitive, market-based economy proclaimed in the early 1990s. Ostensibly a presidential republic, President Lukashenko continues to dominate political, social and economic aspects of government decision making. In 2004 Belarus' fourth round of elections since 2000 was described by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, as "fundamentally flawed." Ten years into his rule, the referendum associated with the National Assembly election allowed President Lukashenko unlimited terms as President. Further, not a single opposition candidate has won a seat to the 110-member National Assembly this year. As a result, the handful of moderate reformers will be replaced by Lukashenko's loyalists.
The current Government of Belarus (GOB) lacks an effectively organized opposition as emerging political parties still do not have wide electoral support and are not allowed to pass parliamentary reform measures. The independent media continues to face escalating pressures, and civil society organizations, while still emerging, remain marginalized from national development dialogues or initiatives. This year, members of the parliamentary Respublika group staged a hunger strike because election reform was not put on the parliamentary agenda. Those initiatives were voted down and resulted in harassment of their proponents through criminal investigation, violation of immunity, and physical abuse. The Constitutional Court also remains ineffective, never challenging presidential initiatives, and consistently endorsing the constitutional nature of presidential referendums. The licensing of lawyers and the bar association remains under the Ministry of Justice's control, seriously compromising the independence of lawyers, several of whom reported they would be denied licenses due to their activities in non-governmental organizations (NGOs) or political parties. Numerous human rights abuses also were reported throughout Belarus, with authorities disregarding credible disappearance cases, harassing independent labor unions, and beating or arresting pro-democracy leaders or activists. The Belarusian Orthodox Church is the only church officially recognized in Belarus and enjoys preferential government treatment. Authorities deploy a range of measures which continue to deny citizens the right to learn about, influence, or change government policies or representatives.
Belarus continues to rank extremely poorly in both investment climate and economic freedom, with the authorities remaining committed to only "socially-oriented" market reform. The GOB's industrial sector policy intends to favor employment but remains uncompetitive given the government's practice of increasing wages more quickly than productivity growth. In the agricultural sector, the rural population remains dependent upon budget subsidies designed to keep afloat unviable collective and state farms. Private ownership of agricultural lands also remains prohibited.
In 2004, the government continued to campaign against NGOs and political parties, and to restrict media, assembly, and association freedoms. State-owned printing houses have refused to publish many independent newspapers, while state-run distribution agencies have either refused to distribute independent newspapers or severed distribution agreements with such newspapers. Other economic and social constraints include: difficulty in obtaining SME licensing; inconsistency in honoring private ownership and contract rights; and difficulty in establishing working relationships between domestic and foreign businesses, and central and local governments.
Despite having presided over an authoritarian regime, Mr. Lukashenko still enjoys the support of an estimated one-third of the electorate. This is explained by the fact that Belarus, unlike other former Soviet states, has avoided dislocations caused by more substantive economic restructuring and market reforms. Unemployment and inflation remain low, while real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2004 is about 9%. Budget deficits are low, and social benefits and wages have been maintained better than in other former Soviet republics. Whereas political and economic relations with Russia have improved since 2003, the government continues to be isolated internationally. Despite extensive international criticism, Lukashenko is unlikely to introduce more liberal and democratic practices.
Poverty has reportedly decreased since the mid-1990s. However, its reduction has been uneven throughout the country. Significant inequalities are seen in the uneven ability of different households to access education, child care, and health services. Many Belarusians experience decreasing affordability of health and social services as well as pronounced gender poverty traps among female-headed households, and even a broader, increasing reliance on cheap dietary coping strategies. Trafficking in women and children also remains a problem, as does environmental management and HIV/AIDS, but the government appears to be collaborating more willingly with donors to address these particular issues.
U.S. strategic interests in Belarus are significant. Belarus requires assistance to advance to a more democratic and accountable political and economic environment, which would in turn potentially lead to increased integration with neighboring EU members and Western security and economic institutions. Belarus also faces social development concerns, i.e. developing strategies to combat HIV/AIDS and trafficking, two key U.S. foreign policy priorities. Belarus is a signatory of international agreements, including those on anti-terrorism, which could contribute to important advancements with continued U.S. development and diplomacy assistance.
The USAID Program:
The focus of USAID's assistance in Belarus is to increase citizen participation in democratic practices through engagement with diverse and still-undeveloped elements of Belarusian society, including the independent media, civil society organizations and NGOs, and other democratically-oriented actors. Activities include support for: a particularly vulnerable independent media; basic social, economic, and political participation and pluralism; rural entrepreneurial initiatives; and protection of the health and welfare of women and children. USAID plans to use $4 million of FY 2006 funds to modify and expand opportunities for Belarusian citizens and NGOs to participate in civil society and to address key development priorities such as anti-trafficking, economic policy, and HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment.
Other Program Elements: The Farmer-to Farmer Agribusiness Volunteer Program (Citizens Network for Foreign Affairs) is managed by the USAID Bureau for Europe and Eurasia. The program objective is to provide technical and consulting services to private farmers and agricultural organizations to stimulate rural entrepreneurial initiatives, and is in harmony with the Presidential Volunteers for Prosperity Initiative. It is also expected that USAID's Disadvantaged Children and Orphans Fund could provide $2 million in FY06 and FY07 to provide capacity development activities and needed social development assistance to vulnerable Belarusian children. Such humanitarian assistance programs currently operate without governmental interference.
Other Donors:
The United Nations Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria approved Belarus for HIV/AIDS prevention projects in 2004 and 2005. The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) signed a joint $3 million plan with the GOB for the period until 2006 to promote children's and youth's health, and protect their rights. The United Nations Development Program has an active Global Environmental Facility (GEF) project, which assists the GOB in meeting environmental management objectives.
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