Publishing Freight Shipment for 1997
Submitted To
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Prepared By
MacroSys Research and
Technology
888 17th
Street, N.W., Suite 312
Washington, DC 20006
December 29, 2006
Table of Contents
1. Definition of the Commodity Flow Data Gap
1.2 Commodities Involved in the Data Gap
1.3 Establishments Involved in the Data Gap
2. Difference between 1997 and 2002 CFS
1. Definition of the Commodity Flow Data Gap
1.1 General Description
The 1997 CFS included freight shipment originating from publishing industry, including SIC 2711, 2721, 2731, 2741, and part of 2771. The data for these industries are not separately provided. On the other hand, the 2002 CFS did not include a portion of the freight shipment originating from publishing. The 2002 data gap was created due to the adoption of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for selection of business establishments. As a result, a portion of the publishing industry changed from an in-scope Manufacturing SIC 2711, 2721, 2731, 2741 and part of 2771 to out-of-scope Information NAICS 5111 and 51223. This means that the 2002 CFS out-of-scope estimates include printed products from non-manufacturing part of the printing sector only. Those printed products from manufacturing sector are still in-scope for 2002 CFS.
Since the 1997 data for publishing industry are lumped together, the objective of this report is to separately develop freight shipment estimates by mode and SCTG commodity that corresponds to the 2002 out-of-scope estimates.
1.2 Commodities Involved in the Data Gap
The main commodity group affected is SCTG 29 Printed products produced by publishing industry.
1.3 Establishments Involved in the Data Gap
The establishments involved in this data gap are NAICS 5111. This industry group comprises establishments primarily engaged in publishing newspapers, magazines, other periodicals, books, databases, and other works, such as calendars, greeting cards, and maps. Publishers distribute or arrange for the distribution of these works/products.
The data gap also includes establishments classified as NAICS 51223. This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in acquiring and registering copyrights for musical compositions in accordance with law and promoting and authorizing the use of these compositions in recordings, radio, television, motion pictures, live performances, print, or other media.
2. Difference between 1997 and 2002 CFS
The 1997 survey includes freight shipment originating from publishing industry, which includes SIC 2711, 2721, 2731, 2741, and part of 2771. However, the 2002 survey does not include freight shipment originating from publishing industries, including NAICS 5111 and NAICS 51223.
3. Data Sources
The 1997 CFS and the 1997 Economic Census are the principal data sources used for our estimation. The Economic Census provides information on the number of establishments, sales, payroll, and employment for all industries in the United States with paid employees. The data cover domestic establishments excluding their foreign subsidiaries. The results are published on the basis of the 2002 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and by type of product line.
4. Method of Estimation
The 1997 CFS has data on printed products for the entire publishing sector, while the 2002 CFS didn't cover NAICS 5111 and 51223 industries. Thus, we are interested in producing freight shipment estimates for 1997 that corresponds to the 2002 out-of-scope estimates. For this purpose, we used data from the 1997 Economic Census to determine the 1997 sales and shipments for the portion of the industries that corresponds to the out-of-scope industries in the 2002 CFS. The 1997 CFS data on freight shipment estimates for the entire publishing industry by mode are also used in our calculation. We followed the following steps in our calculation.
First, the sales receipts of NAICS 5111 and 51223 are assembled from the 1997 economic census. These sales receipts are used as surrogate measures for the value of freight shipments for these industries.1
Second, the total value of freight shipment is distributed to different modes using the modal structure of the freight shipment for the entire publishing industry as provided in the 1997 CFS.
Third, the entire publishing industry's modal ton/value ratios are applied to the value of freight shipment by mode (as developed in the second step) to derive the tonnage by mode of transportation.
Fourth, we applied modal miles/ton ratios of the entire publishing industry to the tons as estimated in the third step to derive the ton-miles by mode of transportation.
The final results of our calculation provide the 1997 freight shipment estimates for publishing industry that corresponds to the 2002 CFS out-of-scope estimates.
5. Quality of the Estimates
The quality of the estimates depends on the quality of data used, the method of estimation and how closely our assumptions on ton/value ratios and miles/ton ratios reflect the reality.
We used data from the Economic Census and CFS. The data from the Economic Census are collected through a complete enumeration of the population. The data from this source are subject to non-sampling errors. The data from VIUS are collected through sample surveys and hence they are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors, although we can not provide specific measures of these errors.
Reference
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, "Economic Census Industry Series," available at http://www.census.gov/, as of October 2006.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, and U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, "2002 Commodity Flow Survey," December 2004.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, and U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, "1997 Commodity Flow Survey," December 1999.
1 The revenue from companies in these sectors include more than just sale of products but detail disaggregated data by type of operations are not available.
