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November 2005, Vol. 128, No. 11

Occupational employment projections to 2014

Daniel E. Hecker

Total employment is projected to increase by 18.9 million jobs over the
2004� period, reaching 164.5 million, according to the latest projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, the Bureau).¹ This increase represents about 2.6 million more jobs than were added over the previous 10-year period (1994�04). The projected 13-percent increase from 2004 to 2014 is slightly higher than the 12.7-percent increase during the earlier period. Self-employment is projected to increase 2.8 percent, from 12.0 million to 12.3 million.²

This article discusses a number of aspects of the BLS projections, along with related information:

• changes in the structure of employment at the major occupational group level;³

• the detailed occupations⁴ that are projected to grow the fastest, as well as those with the largest numerical increases and decreases, along with their most significant source of postsecondary education or training and their earnings;

• the total job openings projected to occur due to growth in the economy and the net replacement needs resulting from workers who permanently either leave the labor force or transfer to other occupations; and

• employment and job openings by education attainment cluster.

This excerpt is from an article published in the November 2005 issue of the Monthly Labor Review. The full text of the article is available in Adobe Acrobat's Portable Document Format (PDF). See How to view a PDF file for more information.

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Footnotes
1 Occupational projections presented in this article provide information to those interested in labor market issues. They also provide the background for analyses of future employment opportunities described in the forthcoming 2006� Occupational Outlook Handbook. The Internet version of this edition of the Handbook, which will be accessible at http://www.bls.gov/oco/, is expected to be available in late December 2005; the print version, BLS Bulletin 2600, should be available spring 2006. Job outlook information in the 2006� Handbook will use the projections presented in each of the articles in this issue of the Monthly Labor Review. For a description of the methodology used to develop employment projections, see BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2490 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1997), Chapter 13, pp. 122�.

2 Ninety-one percent of the increase is projected for those who are self-employed in their primary job, 9 percent for those who are self-employed in their secondary job.

3 For more information on occupation groups (and occupations), see Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Standard Occupational Classification Manual, 2000 (Lanham, MD, Bernan Associates, 2000).

4 Base-year employment data were developed with the use of the Occupational Employment Statistics Survey, supplemented with data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for self-employed and unpaid family workers.

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