Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
1940–1946 birth cohorts | ||||||||||
All | 234 | 174 | 218 | -35 | -16 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 46 | 55 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 35 | 115 | 122 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 23 | 34 | 39 |
Men | 199 | 176 | 234 | -40 | -17 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 48 | 58 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 41 | 125 | 105 | 30 | 32 | 11 | 19 | 21 | 26 | 30 |
Second | 47 | 176 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 31 | 37 | 57 | 72 |
Third | 50 | 176 | 218 | -35 | -17 | 12 | 22 | 42 | 70 | 76 |
Fourth | 47 | 181 | 247 | -65 | -26 | 2 | 27 | 29 | 37 | 48 |
Highest | 49 | 207 | 276 | -68 | -26 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 39 | 49 |
Women | ||||||||||
All | 35 | 115 | 122 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 23 | 34 | 39 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | ||||||||||
All | 199 | 176 | 234 | -40 | -17 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 48 | 58 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 19 | 127 | 98 | 32 | 38 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 |
Second | 37 | 176 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 33 | 41 | 63 | 79 |
Third | 47 | 176 | 218 | -35 | -17 | 13 | 23 | 45 | 72 | 79 |
Fourth | 47 | 181 | 247 | -65 | -26 | 2 | 27 | 29 | 37 | 48 |
Highest | 49 | 207 | 276 | -68 | -26 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 39 | 49 |
Zero earners | ||||||||||
All | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
1940–1946 birth cohorts | ||||||||||
All | 6,332 | 259 | 281 | -27 | -9 | 15 | 32 | 48 | 61 | 69 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 1,890 | 190 | 214 | -28 | -12 | 11 | 23 | 34 | 44 | 52 |
Men | 4,442 | 270 | 302 | -27 | -9 | 16 | 35 | 53 | 68 | 76 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 1,230 | 156 | 144 | 21 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 30 | 38 |
Second | 1,245 | 223 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 39 | 49 | 58 |
Third | 1,275 | 262 | 286 | -13 | -5 | 29 | 50 | 65 | 74 | 81 |
Fourth | 1,278 | 273 | 326 | -35 | -11 | 16 | 45 | 67 | 78 | 83 |
Highest | 1,304 | 326 | 392 | -58 | -16 | 5 | 19 | 46 | 75 | 88 |
Women | ||||||||||
All | 1,890 | 190 | 214 | -28 | -12 | 11 | 23 | 34 | 44 | 52 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 719 | 140 | 143 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 33 | 42 |
Second | 555 | 190 | 224 | -27 | -12 | 14 | 27 | 40 | 48 | 55 |
Third | 338 | 241 | 293 | -48 | -17 | 14 | 31 | 43 | 57 | 63 |
Fourth | 181 | 267 | 357 | -74 | -21 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 46 | 57 |
Highest | 97 | 316 | 397 | -67 | -17 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 60 | 70 |
Men | ||||||||||
All | 4,442 | 270 | 302 | -27 | -9 | 16 | 35 | 53 | 68 | 76 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 511 | 182 | 146 | 41 | 30 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 27 | 34 |
Second | 690 | 247 | 222 | 19 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 38 | 50 | 60 |
Third | 937 | 267 | 282 | -6 | -2 | 34 | 56 | 72 | 80 | 87 |
Fourth | 1,097 | 273 | 324 | -33 | -10 | 18 | 49 | 72 | 83 | 87 |
Highest | 1,207 | 327 | 390 | -58 | -15 | 5 | 19 | 47 | 76 | 89 |
Zero earners | ||||||||||
All | 166 | 72 | 153 | -84 | -53 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 22 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 124 | 72 | 144 | -79 | -49 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 23 |
Men | 42 | 71 | 221 | -120 | -64 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
1940–1946 birth cohorts | ||||||||||
All | 8,375 | 366 | 371 | -16 | -4 | 25 | 47 | 59 | 67 | 74 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 3,295 | 246 | 282 | -28 | -9 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 53 | 61 |
Men | 5,080 | 407 | 416 | -9 | -2 | 30 | 56 | 69 | 77 | 82 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 1,635 | 176 | 184 | -1 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 36 | 45 | 52 |
Second | 1,665 | 275 | 285 | -7 | -2 | 15 | 29 | 40 | 49 | 58 |
Third | 1,669 | 368 | 373 | -2 | -1 | 20 | 36 | 52 | 64 | 74 |
Fourth | 1,687 | 425 | 452 | -10 | -2 | 50 | 71 | 79 | 85 | 89 |
Highest | 1,719 | 482 | 535 | -39 | -8 | 27 | 72 | 90 | 94 | 95 |
Women | ||||||||||
All | 3,295 | 246 | 282 | -28 | -9 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 53 | 61 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 1,131 | 167 | 182 | -5 | -3 | 12 | 25 | 35 | 44 | 52 |
Second | 984 | 245 | 284 | -33 | -12 | 17 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 58 |
Third | 643 | 322 | 381 | -51 | -13 | 19 | 32 | 46 | 55 | 64 |
Fourth | 365 | 407 | 471 | -43 | -10 | 29 | 50 | 62 | 72 | 78 |
Highest | 172 | 476 | 551 | -49 | -9 | 22 | 54 | 70 | 80 | 86 |
Men | ||||||||||
All | 5,080 | 407 | 416 | -9 | -2 | 30 | 56 | 69 | 77 | 82 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 504 | 195 | 185 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 28 | 38 | 45 | 52 |
Second | 681 | 318 | 286 | 30 | 10 | 13 | 27 | 39 | 49 | 57 |
Third | 1,026 | 383 | 369 | 21 | 5 | 20 | 39 | 56 | 70 | 79 |
Fourth | 1,322 | 429 | 447 | -6 | -1 | 56 | 77 | 84 | 89 | 92 |
Highest | 1,547 | 483 | 532 | -38 | -8 | 28 | 74 | 92 | 95 | 96 |
Zero earners | ||||||||||
All | 620 | 119 | 195 | -74 | -39 | 16 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 36 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 442 | 116 | 197 | -78 | -40 | 13 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 33 |
Men | 178 | 122 | 190 | -51 | -32 | 23 | 28 | 35 | 41 | 44 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
1940–1946 birth cohorts | ||||||||||
All | 10,452 | 625 | 636 | -6 | -1 | 41 | 62 | 75 | 83 | 88 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 5,090 | 453 | 478 | -20 | -4 | 30 | 49 | 65 | 76 | 82 |
Men | 5,362 | 808 | 800 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 74 | 85 | 90 | 93 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 2,069 | 286 | 313 | -9 | -3 | 30 | 45 | 58 | 67 | 72 |
Second | 2,086 | 448 | 471 | -20 | -4 | 27 | 49 | 65 | 78 | 86 |
Third | 2,073 | 623 | 636 | -9 | -1 | 33 | 54 | 69 | 80 | 87 |
Fourth | 2,092 | 815 | 817 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 73 | 87 | 93 | 97 |
Highest | 2,132 | 958 | 974 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 91 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
Women | ||||||||||
All | 5,090 | 453 | 478 | -20 | -4 | 30 | 49 | 65 | 76 | 82 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 1,671 | 287 | 313 | -13 | -4 | 26 | 42 | 56 | 65 | 71 |
Second | 1,499 | 441 | 467 | -25 | -5 | 24 | 46 | 63 | 77 | 85 |
Third | 1,082 | 599 | 630 | -24 | -4 | 30 | 51 | 66 | 79 | 87 |
Fourth | 588 | 793 | 825 | -21 | -3 | 43 | 63 | 82 | 89 | 95 |
Highest | 250 | 949 | 983 | -19 | -2 | 54 | 84 | 95 | 97 | 99 |
Men | ||||||||||
All | 5,362 | 808 | 800 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 74 | 85 | 90 | 93 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 398 | 286 | 314 | -2 | -1 | 46 | 56 | 67 | 73 | 79 |
Second | 587 | 457 | 477 | -9 | -2 | 34 | 56 | 68 | 80 | 86 |
Third | 991 | 647 | 642 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 57 | 72 | 82 | 88 |
Fourth | 1,504 | 821 | 816 | 10 | 1 | 50 | 76 | 89 | 95 | 98 |
Highest | 1,882 | 958 | 973 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 92 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
Zero earners | ||||||||||
All | 960 | 264 | 325 | -36 | -11 | 40 | 48 | 56 | 63 | 70 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 560 | 222 | 301 | -45 | -15 | 35 | 42 | 50 | 58 | 65 |
Men | 400 | 318 | 366 | -24 | -7 | 46 | 55 | 64 | 71 | 77 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
1940–1946 birth cohorts | ||||||||||
All | 11,033 | 741 | 758 | -10 | -1 | 50 | 72 | 84 | 91 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 5,586 | 544 | 564 | -16 | -3 | 39 | 61 | 77 | 85 | 91 |
Men | 5,447 | 979 | 987 | -5 | -1 | 60 | 83 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 2,191 | 339 | 369 | -10 | -3 | 40 | 55 | 67 | 75 | 81 |
Second | 2,203 | 533 | 552 | -15 | -3 | 40 | 64 | 81 | 90 | 94 |
Third | 2,180 | 738 | 758 | -16 | -2 | 42 | 69 | 84 | 92 | 96 |
Fourth | 2,213 | 980 | 992 | -5 | 0 | 58 | 80 | 91 | 97 | 99 |
Highest | 2,246 | 1,167 | 1,179 | -3 | 0 | 69 | 94 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
Women | ||||||||||
All | 5,586 | 544 | 564 | -16 | -3 | 39 | 61 | 77 | 85 | 91 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 1,803 | 342 | 368 | -12 | -3 | 36 | 53 | 65 | 73 | 81 |
Second | 1,652 | 529 | 549 | -18 | -3 | 35 | 61 | 80 | 90 | 95 |
Third | 1,210 | 722 | 751 | -21 | -3 | 38 | 63 | 81 | 91 | 96 |
Fourth | 642 | 967 | 988 | -11 | -1 | 50 | 72 | 87 | 94 | 98 |
Highest | 279 | 1,147 | 1,173 | -14 | -1 | 54 | 88 | 97 | 98 | 100 |
Men | ||||||||||
All | 5,447 | 979 | 987 | -5 | -1 | 60 | 83 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | 388 | 335 | 376 | -3 | -1 | 54 | 64 | 73 | 81 | 85 |
Second | 551 | 541 | 564 | -9 | -2 | 51 | 73 | 84 | 89 | 92 |
Third | 970 | 752 | 769 | -11 | -1 | 48 | 76 | 88 | 93 | 96 |
Fourth | 1,571 | 984 | 995 | -2 | 0 | 60 | 83 | 93 | 97 | 99 |
Highest | 1,967 | 1,169 | 1,179 | -2 | 0 | 71 | 95 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
Zero earners | ||||||||||
All | 1,123 | 352 | 399 | -13 | -3 | 54 | 65 | 74 | 80 | 85 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 649 | 286 | 348 | -11 | -4 | 53 | 63 | 71 | 77 | 82 |
Men | 474 | 424 | 457 | -15 | -3 | 55 | 68 | 79 | 84 | 87 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 34 | 174 | 213 | -43 | -21 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 50 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 692 | 240 | 235 | -13 | -6 | 20 | 38 | 56 | 66 | 72 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 191 | 159 | 163 | -11 | -7 | 13 | 27 | 39 | 48 | 54 |
Men | 501 | 256 | 259 | -14 | -6 | 23 | 42 | 62 | 73 | 78 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 131 | 124 | 115 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 32 | 39 |
279 | 137 | 195 | 180 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 41 | 46 | 51 |
458 | 140 | 249 | 235 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 52 | 68 | 80 | 88 |
629 | 139 | 256 | 268 | -17 | -6 | 42 | 75 | 81 | 86 | 88 |
780 | 145 | 259 | 297 | -42 | -14 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 89 | 92 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 938 | 303 | 298 | -5 | -2 | 27 | 49 | 59 | 67 | 75 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 352 | 185 | 222 | -23 | -10 | 16 | 29 | 40 | 49 | 60 |
Men | 586 | 362 | 350 | -1 | 0 | 33 | 61 | 70 | 77 | 83 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 181 | 142 | 150 | -1 | -1 | 14 | 24 | 33 | 42 | 55 |
326 | 191 | 230 | 227 | -1 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 37 | 47 | 56 |
562 | 183 | 307 | 297 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 47 | 61 | 74 |
789 | 186 | 364 | 357 | 2 | 1 | 53 | 79 | 86 | 89 | 91 |
1,017 | 197 | 379 | 399 | -27 | -7 | 35 | 84 | 93 | 95 | 96 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,113 | 400 | 379 | 7 | 2 | 34 | 50 | 60 | 69 | 75 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 509 | 267 | 282 | -4 | -1 | 23 | 37 | 48 | 59 | 66 |
Men | 604 | 512 | 484 | 16 | 3 | 42 | 60 | 70 | 77 | 82 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 222 | 187 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 34 | 43 | 54 | 61 |
372 | 225 | 297 | 282 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 39 | 51 | 58 |
696 | 217 | 408 | 379 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 42 | 55 | 65 |
1,010 | 217 | 508 | 489 | 20 | 4 | 35 | 60 | 79 | 87 | 93 |
1,365 | 232 | 559 | 551 | -1 | 0 | 72 | 95 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,194 | 548 | 529 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 61 | 72 | 81 | 87 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 583 | 381 | 394 | -4 | -1 | 33 | 48 | 62 | 73 | 80 |
Men | 611 | 720 | 698 | 19 | 3 | 50 | 73 | 81 | 89 | 93 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 243 | 252 | 266 | -2 | -1 | 28 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 68 |
501 | 239 | 375 | 383 | -9 | -2 | 35 | 51 | 66 | 73 | 82 |
943 | 234 | 548 | 529 | 8 | 2 | 34 | 53 | 66 | 79 | 85 |
1,408 | 229 | 712 | 694 | 16 | 2 | 44 | 69 | 82 | 94 | 97 |
1,925 | 249 | 821 | 791 | 23 | 3 | 68 | 93 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 1,277 | 661 | 653 | 5 | 1 | 56 | 77 | 88 | 91 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 657 | 467 | 471 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 68 | 83 | 88 | 92 |
Men | 620 | 902 | 883 | 12 | 1 | 64 | 86 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 260 | 323 | 331 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 55 | 68 | 74 | 82 |
590 | 254 | 455 | 466 | -1 | 0 | 50 | 72 | 83 | 89 | 93 |
1,094 | 249 | 660 | 653 | 3 | 0 | 52 | 73 | 90 | 94 | 97 |
1,697 | 251 | 891 | 865 | 15 | 2 | 60 | 89 | 97 | 98 | 99 |
2,380 | 263 | 1,024 | 998 | 22 | 2 | 77 | 96 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 1,325 | 774 | 764 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 88 | 94 | 96 | 98 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 694 | 553 | 553 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 82 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
Men | 631 | 1,069 | 1,052 | 5 | 0 | 83 | 95 | 97 | 98 | 99 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 271 | 354 | 387 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 73 | 80 | 86 | 90 |
648 | 262 | 533 | 530 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 87 | 93 | 98 | 98 |
1,245 | 261 | 773 | 764 | 2 | 0 | 68 | 86 | 98 | 99 | 100 |
1,973 | 260 | 1,034 | 1,018 | 8 | 1 | 80 | 96 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
2,809 | 271 | 1,206 | 1,190 | 13 | 1 | 91 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 42 | 155 | 191 | -55 | -24 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 30 | 32 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 754 | 245 | 251 | -27 | -10 | 12 | 27 | 42 | 58 | 65 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 221 | 160 | 176 | -22 | -10 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 38 | 43 |
Men | 533 | 260 | 279 | -28 | -10 | 12 | 29 | 47 | 67 | 74 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 139 | 152 | 127 | 32 | 32 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 28 |
298 | 156 | 196 | 191 | -3 | -2 | 12 | 23 | 31 | 42 | 45 |
498 | 154 | 252 | 251 | -6 | -2 | 34 | 56 | 70 | 78 | 82 |
682 | 151 | 260 | 287 | -30 | -10 | 10 | 47 | 69 | 75 | 82 |
861 | 154 | 269 | 319 | -56 | -17 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 78 | 89 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 992 | 311 | 315 | -14 | -5 | 24 | 47 | 59 | 67 | 73 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 394 | 197 | 221 | -19 | -8 | 16 | 32 | 43 | 51 | 59 |
Men | 598 | 382 | 378 | -13 | -4 | 29 | 57 | 70 | 78 | 82 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 193 | 148 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 26 | 38 | 46 | 52 |
348 | 192 | 212 | 233 | -11 | -6 | 14 | 29 | 36 | 46 | 53 |
599 | 202 | 314 | 315 | -9 | -3 | 15 | 27 | 48 | 62 | 71 |
871 | 204 | 382 | 385 | -6 | -1 | 52 | 75 | 82 | 88 | 92 |
1,117 | 201 | 402 | 432 | -36 | -8 | 24 | 76 | 92 | 94 | 95 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,164 | 420 | 419 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 52 | 63 | 72 | 79 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 538 | 279 | 307 | -11 | -4 | 25 | 37 | 50 | 61 | 70 |
Men | 626 | 559 | 539 | 6 | 1 | 43 | 65 | 75 | 82 | 86 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 227 | 204 | 210 | -1 | -1 | 29 | 38 | 51 | 61 | 70 |
446 | 221 | 291 | 306 | -11 | -4 | 19 | 31 | 42 | 56 | 64 |
746 | 240 | 430 | 418 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 47 | 60 | 71 |
1,131 | 238 | 551 | 539 | 12 | 2 | 37 | 65 | 80 | 88 | 93 |
1,547 | 238 | 613 | 610 | -2 | 0 | 72 | 94 | 97 | 97 | 97 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,292 | 558 | 558 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 62 | 73 | 82 | 87 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 646 | 394 | 416 | -4 | -1 | 30 | 49 | 62 | 74 | 82 |
Men | 646 | 768 | 755 | 8 | 1 | 51 | 74 | 85 | 90 | 92 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 255 | 275 | 282 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 47 | 57 | 65 | 72 |
561 | 248 | 392 | 408 | -9 | -2 | 30 | 53 | 65 | 76 | 83 |
954 | 265 | 542 | 558 | -11 | -2 | 23 | 42 | 60 | 75 | 84 |
1,475 | 260 | 759 | 747 | 16 | 2 | 42 | 70 | 87 | 94 | 97 |
2,110 | 264 | 867 | 852 | 16 | 2 | 72 | 96 | 99 | 99 | 100 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 1,368 | 678 | 667 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 74 | 85 | 91 | 93 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 713 | 507 | 500 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 64 | 79 | 86 | 90 |
Men | 655 | 944 | 938 | 8 | 1 | 67 | 86 | 92 | 96 | 97 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 274 | 325 | 337 | -1 | 0 | 48 | 61 | 71 | 78 | 82 |
663 | 262 | 488 | 490 | -5 | -1 | 38 | 61 | 80 | 87 | 92 |
1,119 | 279 | 674 | 666 | 6 | 1 | 42 | 67 | 82 | 91 | 94 |
1,751 | 277 | 927 | 920 | 13 | 1 | 65 | 85 | 96 | 99 | 100 |
2,561 | 276 | 1,073 | 1,056 | 20 | 2 | 78 | 97 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 1,411 | 768 | 767 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 86 | 93 | 96 | 97 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 749 | 573 | 584 | -3 | -1 | 57 | 79 | 88 | 94 | 96 |
Men | 662 | 1,108 | 1,106 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 94 | 98 | 98 | 99 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 287 | 346 | 382 | -1 | 0 | 58 | 72 | 78 | 86 | 90 |
730 | 266 | 552 | 566 | -11 | -2 | 58 | 84 | 93 | 97 | 99 |
1,261 | 288 | 768 | 767 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 83 | 94 | 98 | 98 |
2,043 | 286 | 1,081 | 1,074 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 94 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
3,001 | 284 | 1,247 | 1,246 | 9 | 1 | 85 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 35 | 165 | 238 | -21 | -10 | 11 | 27 | 34 | 43 | 48 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 938 | 253 | 269 | -35 | -13 | 10 | 23 | 40 | 58 | 72 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 234 | 160 | 182 | -29 | -15 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 46 | 55 |
Men | 704 | 264 | 293 | -37 | -13 | 10 | 24 | 42 | 62 | 77 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 174 | 138 | 131 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 39 | 44 |
303 | 190 | 204 | 202 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 25 | 36 | 48 | 57 |
523 | 185 | 256 | 269 | -19 | -7 | 30 | 56 | 67 | 75 | 83 |
737 | 190 | 270 | 307 | -42 | -13 | 0 | 19 | 67 | 82 | 85 |
919 | 199 | 272 | 336 | -69 | -20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 88 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 1,243 | 350 | 348 | -16 | -4 | 25 | 47 | 59 | 67 | 73 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 423 | 227 | 244 | -23 | -9 | 18 | 30 | 41 | 51 | 58 |
Men | 820 | 411 | 408 | -13 | -3 | 29 | 56 | 68 | 75 | 80 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 236 | 161 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 32 | 44 | 51 |
383 | 248 | 254 | 251 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 33 | 43 | 52 |
644 | 249 | 366 | 347 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 38 | 53 | 65 | 75 |
972 | 251 | 414 | 420 | -10 | -2 | 59 | 77 | 83 | 87 | 90 |
1,251 | 259 | 432 | 466 | -39 | -8 | 18 | 75 | 93 | 96 | 97 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,454 | 468 | 457 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 52 | 63 | 72 | 78 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 609 | 320 | 336 | -8 | -2 | 25 | 39 | 51 | 62 | 70 |
Men | 845 | 605 | 588 | 11 | 2 | 43 | 62 | 72 | 79 | 84 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 280 | 218 | 233 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 46 | 55 | 61 |
475 | 289 | 339 | 338 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 32 | 41 | 52 | 62 |
826 | 292 | 464 | 457 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 37 | 50 | 65 | 76 |
1,244 | 291 | 608 | 599 | 11 | 2 | 43 | 64 | 82 | 91 | 93 |
1,769 | 302 | 677 | 669 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 94 | 97 | 97 | 98 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,578 | 583 | 588 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 64 | 75 | 83 | 88 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 719 | 402 | 431 | -17 | -4 | 30 | 51 | 63 | 74 | 80 |
Men | 859 | 804 | 789 | 8 | 1 | 53 | 75 | 85 | 90 | 94 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 304 | 273 | 294 | -5 | -1 | 30 | 45 | 58 | 67 | 72 |
565 | 313 | 406 | 430 | -21 | -5 | 26 | 50 | 62 | 75 | 86 |
1,013 | 319 | 578 | 587 | -10 | -2 | 32 | 55 | 67 | 77 | 85 |
1,595 | 315 | 805 | 793 | 11 | 1 | 54 | 76 | 89 | 94 | 97 |
2,339 | 327 | 916 | 894 | 12 | 1 | 71 | 95 | 99 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 1,677 | 698 | 706 | -1 | 0 | 56 | 78 | 87 | 92 | 95 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 803 | 500 | 520 | -9 | -1 | 45 | 67 | 79 | 86 | 92 |
Men | 874 | 984 | 983 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 87 | 93 | 96 | 98 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 329 | 321 | 356 | -5 | -1 | 42 | 56 | 67 | 75 | 83 |
658 | 327 | 498 | 513 | -8 | -2 | 45 | 74 | 86 | 92 | 97 |
1,168 | 338 | 699 | 706 | -10 | -1 | 47 | 74 | 86 | 91 | 96 |
1,891 | 335 | 983 | 980 | 3 | 0 | 68 | 89 | 94 | 99 | 99 |
2,853 | 348 | 1,127 | 1,113 | 11 | 1 | 80 | 97 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 1,739 | 795 | 810 | -7 | -1 | 64 | 84 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 861 | 571 | 592 | -13 | -2 | 51 | 75 | 87 | 92 | 95 |
Men | 878 | 1,152 | 1,153 | -3 | 0 | 78 | 93 | 97 | 98 | 99 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 345 | 335 | 383 | -10 | -3 | 48 | 64 | 76 | 84 | 87 |
721 | 338 | 569 | 586 | -9 | -2 | 55 | 81 | 94 | 97 | 99 |
1,317 | 351 | 795 | 810 | -13 | -2 | 56 | 82 | 91 | 95 | 98 |
2,146 | 346 | 1,137 | 1,145 | -7 | -1 | 78 | 94 | 98 | 99 | 100 |
3,309 | 359 | 1,315 | 1,304 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 27 | 196 | 187 | -9 | -4 | 15 | 19 | 30 | 41 | 54 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 899 | 267 | 278 | -28 | -10 | 14 | 32 | 48 | 63 | 72 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 250 | 180 | 199 | -24 | -12 | 11 | 22 | 36 | 45 | 55 |
Men | 649 | 287 | 303 | -28 | -9 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 70 | 78 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 184 | 147 | 149 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 35 | 44 |
373 | 169 | 226 | 221 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 40 | 49 | 59 |
551 | 174 | 270 | 278 | -8 | -3 | 28 | 46 | 64 | 73 | 80 |
761 | 180 | 298 | 321 | -28 | -9 | 18 | 62 | 72 | 76 | 83 |
955 | 192 | 302 | 353 | -59 | -16 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 81 | 93 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 1,213 | 356 | 360 | -18 | -5 | 25 | 46 | 59 | 66 | 72 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 472 | 233 | 267 | -34 | -11 | 17 | 31 | 42 | 49 | 58 |
Men | 741 | 437 | 432 | -10 | -3 | 30 | 56 | 70 | 76 | 81 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 245 | 177 | 190 | -1 | -1 | 14 | 25 | 35 | 44 | 53 |
448 | 240 | 273 | 284 | -7 | -2 | 18 | 31 | 41 | 48 | 57 |
703 | 233 | 349 | 360 | -13 | -4 | 15 | 32 | 47 | 57 | 65 |
985 | 240 | 441 | 445 | -6 | -1 | 54 | 72 | 78 | 83 | 88 |
1,310 | 255 | 464 | 498 | -41 | -8 | 23 | 73 | 95 | 97 | 99 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,389 | 492 | 512 | -8 | -1 | 34 | 57 | 67 | 75 | 80 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 626 | 351 | 385 | -18 | -4 | 26 | 45 | 55 | 65 | 71 |
Men | 763 | 648 | 641 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 66 | 76 | 83 | 87 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 276 | 240 | 259 | -5 | -2 | 24 | 35 | 47 | 59 | 66 |
576 | 284 | 375 | 390 | -14 | -3 | 23 | 44 | 55 | 61 | 70 |
963 | 261 | 492 | 512 | -15 | -3 | 25 | 45 | 57 | 70 | 79 |
1,363 | 280 | 654 | 653 | 7 | 1 | 40 | 68 | 79 | 87 | 90 |
1,892 | 288 | 733 | 738 | -11 | -1 | 58 | 92 | 96 | 97 | 98 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,502 | 615 | 620 | -2 | 0 | 44 | 63 | 75 | 83 | 87 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 731 | 437 | 460 | -13 | -3 | 32 | 50 | 65 | 75 | 80 |
Men | 771 | 816 | 806 | 4 | 0 | 54 | 75 | 85 | 90 | 94 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 298 | 288 | 312 | -17 | -5 | 32 | 45 | 56 | 64 | 68 |
634 | 307 | 447 | 463 | -9 | -2 | 29 | 51 | 64 | 76 | 84 |
1,129 | 290 | 609 | 619 | -5 | -1 | 35 | 56 | 71 | 81 | 88 |
1,643 | 296 | 817 | 811 | 9 | 1 | 51 | 73 | 88 | 95 | 97 |
2,348 | 311 | 931 | 924 | 5 | 1 | 71 | 92 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 1,594 | 731 | 755 | -9 | -1 | 52 | 74 | 85 | 90 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 806 | 534 | 554 | -13 | -2 | 42 | 63 | 77 | 85 | 90 |
Men | 788 | 986 | 1,013 | -7 | -1 | 62 | 85 | 93 | 96 | 97 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 320 | 351 | 373 | -10 | -3 | 37 | 53 | 63 | 73 | 79 |
712 | 321 | 532 | 552 | -17 | -3 | 42 | 65 | 80 | 88 | 93 |
1,311 | 309 | 730 | 755 | -13 | -2 | 45 | 72 | 88 | 93 | 97 |
1,953 | 316 | 984 | 1,010 | -9 | -1 | 60 | 82 | 94 | 98 | 100 |
2,906 | 328 | 1,157 | 1,160 | 2 | 0 | 74 | 98 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 1,657 | 850 | 870 | -13 | -2 | 59 | 81 | 89 | 93 | 95 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 856 | 615 | 639 | -17 | -2 | 48 | 72 | 82 | 89 | 93 |
Men | 801 | 1,171 | 1,200 | -11 | -1 | 70 | 90 | 95 | 97 | 97 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 335 | 353 | 427 | -13 | -4 | 46 | 58 | 68 | 76 | 82 |
775 | 330 | 607 | 631 | -18 | -3 | 48 | 74 | 86 | 93 | 95 |
1,470 | 326 | 854 | 870 | -15 | -2 | 56 | 85 | 92 | 97 | 98 |
2,243 | 326 | 1,155 | 1,175 | -17 | -1 | 66 | 88 | 97 | 99 | 100 |
3,400 | 340 | 1,366 | 1,372 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 38 | 216 | 254 | -32 | -14 | 12 | 31 | 44 | 62 | 74 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 915 | 291 | 298 | -27 | -9 | 14 | 32 | 48 | 62 | 71 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 255 | 196 | 224 | -31 | -12 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 43 | 52 |
Men | 660 | 316 | 335 | -27 | -8 | 15 | 35 | 52 | 69 | 78 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 181 | 174 | 158 | 14 | 18 | 11 | 20 | 28 | 32 | 41 |
392 | 175 | 238 | 231 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 30 | 41 | 48 | 56 |
591 | 183 | 293 | 297 | -10 | -3 | 24 | 40 | 56 | 70 | 85 |
822 | 183 | 326 | 353 | -29 | -8 | 22 | 62 | 73 | 81 | 85 |
1,068 | 193 | 334 | 389 | -63 | -16 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 77 | 88 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 1,207 | 388 | 388 | -20 | -5 | 23 | 45 | 59 | 68 | 73 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 463 | 264 | 299 | -29 | -9 | 17 | 32 | 44 | 55 | 62 |
Men | 744 | 460 | 455 | -14 | -3 | 26 | 52 | 68 | 76 | 80 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 240 | 187 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 25 | 34 | 44 | 47 |
490 | 239 | 298 | 303 | -7 | -3 | 15 | 27 | 36 | 48 | 58 |
745 | 234 | 383 | 388 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 32 | 54 | 66 | 76 |
1,066 | 242 | 467 | 475 | -10 | -2 | 51 | 77 | 85 | 91 | 92 |
1,425 | 252 | 489 | 530 | -48 | -9 | 16 | 62 | 86 | 92 | 93 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,348 | 533 | 554 | -15 | -3 | 32 | 51 | 65 | 74 | 80 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 575 | 379 | 425 | -37 | -8 | 20 | 38 | 52 | 65 | 72 |
Men | 773 | 675 | 673 | -4 | -1 | 40 | 61 | 74 | 80 | 86 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 269 | 260 | 284 | -16 | -5 | 24 | 35 | 45 | 56 | 66 |
635 | 267 | 394 | 425 | -30 | -7 | 17 | 33 | 50 | 62 | 74 |
1,019 | 264 | 535 | 552 | -15 | -3 | 19 | 37 | 57 | 69 | 75 |
1,476 | 271 | 686 | 696 | -7 | -1 | 38 | 65 | 77 | 85 | 88 |
2,062 | 277 | 775 | 785 | -12 | -1 | 60 | 88 | 97 | 99 | 100 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,478 | 656 | 667 | -11 | -2 | 43 | 64 | 77 | 85 | 89 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 687 | 475 | 517 | -27 | -5 | 30 | 50 | 68 | 78 | 84 |
Men | 791 | 852 | 851 | -2 | 0 | 53 | 75 | 84 | 91 | 93 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 294 | 313 | 335 | -13 | -4 | 31 | 48 | 64 | 73 | 75 |
686 | 296 | 486 | 512 | -21 | -4 | 28 | 47 | 63 | 78 | 87 |
1,207 | 288 | 655 | 667 | -7 | -1 | 40 | 57 | 72 | 83 | 88 |
1,760 | 298 | 867 | 865 | -1 | 0 | 51 | 76 | 88 | 93 | 97 |
2,568 | 302 | 984 | 991 | -10 | -1 | 64 | 92 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 1,562 | 777 | 802 | -21 | -3 | 47 | 72 | 84 | 91 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 759 | 583 | 619 | -30 | -5 | 35 | 59 | 75 | 84 | 90 |
Men | 803 | 1,012 | 1,054 | -14 | -1 | 58 | 84 | 92 | 97 | 98 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 313 | 365 | 403 | -23 | -6 | 33 | 55 | 68 | 74 | 80 |
784 | 314 | 569 | 607 | -25 | -5 | 37 | 63 | 80 | 92 | 95 |
1,418 | 297 | 779 | 802 | -20 | -2 | 45 | 67 | 82 | 92 | 97 |
2,112 | 319 | 1,040 | 1,066 | -19 | -2 | 53 | 79 | 90 | 97 | 99 |
3,135 | 319 | 1,213 | 1,227 | -13 | -1 | 66 | 96 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 1,613 | 915 | 936 | -23 | -3 | 53 | 76 | 87 | 92 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 796 | 662 | 716 | -35 | -5 | 38 | 62 | 77 | 86 | 91 |
Men | 817 | 1,212 | 1,252 | -15 | -1 | 66 | 89 | 95 | 97 | 98 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 321 | 386 | 457 | -25 | -6 | 38 | 54 | 64 | 73 | 79 |
863 | 324 | 656 | 700 | -26 | -4 | 43 | 71 | 86 | 94 | 98 |
1,628 | 308 | 915 | 936 | -23 | -2 | 48 | 75 | 88 | 94 | 97 |
2,464 | 329 | 1,231 | 1,269 | -22 | -2 | 65 | 84 | 94 | 98 | 98 |
3,713 | 331 | 1,429 | 1,464 | -23 | -2 | 69 | 97 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 29 | 181 | 211 | -29 | -12 | 13 | 20 | 40 | 63 | 67 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 913 | 302 | 329 | -25 | -7 | 17 | 37 | 53 | 62 | 68 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 298 | 210 | 253 | -37 | -14 | 14 | 28 | 35 | 45 | 52 |
Men | 615 | 346 | 359 | -22 | -6 | 19 | 42 | 61 | 70 | 76 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 174 | 162 | 161 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 20 | 29 | 36 |
428 | 178 | 251 | 254 | -5 | -2 | 15 | 31 | 39 | 48 | 54 |
654 | 188 | 302 | 329 | -20 | -6 | 20 | 43 | 58 | 72 | 80 |
891 | 186 | 352 | 374 | -24 | -6 | 35 | 63 | 72 | 77 | 83 |
1,118 | 187 | 369 | 414 | -47 | -11 | 7 | 34 | 75 | 85 | 89 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 1,206 | 399 | 424 | -16 | -3 | 28 | 48 | 60 | 67 | 75 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 508 | 291 | 333 | -28 | -8 | 20 | 37 | 46 | 54 | 63 |
Men | 698 | 498 | 498 | -9 | -2 | 34 | 55 | 69 | 77 | 83 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 234 | 201 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 38 | 43 | 52 |
485 | 229 | 310 | 324 | -13 | -4 | 17 | 31 | 42 | 51 | 62 |
800 | 253 | 402 | 424 | -16 | -4 | 18 | 37 | 52 | 65 | 75 |
1,133 | 242 | 501 | 513 | -13 | -3 | 41 | 63 | 74 | 83 | 88 |
1,523 | 248 | 545 | 569 | -27 | -5 | 49 | 79 | 93 | 95 | 96 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,358 | 544 | 573 | -18 | -4 | 32 | 54 | 67 | 75 | 80 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 636 | 395 | 444 | -32 | -7 | 24 | 41 | 54 | 63 | 71 |
Men | 722 | 712 | 717 | -10 | -2 | 39 | 65 | 78 | 85 | 88 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 265 | 255 | 279 | -13 | -5 | 24 | 39 | 51 | 58 | 65 |
627 | 259 | 398 | 433 | -28 | -6 | 22 | 38 | 53 | 65 | 74 |
1,067 | 282 | 551 | 573 | -20 | -4 | 23 | 44 | 60 | 70 | 76 |
1,570 | 273 | 715 | 726 | -14 | -2 | 38 | 61 | 75 | 86 | 90 |
2,145 | 279 | 799 | 818 | -23 | -3 | 53 | 89 | 95 | 95 | 97 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,471 | 667 | 698 | -20 | -3 | 39 | 63 | 77 | 85 | 89 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 734 | 501 | 539 | -31 | -6 | 30 | 51 | 69 | 80 | 85 |
Men | 737 | 899 | 906 | -11 | -1 | 48 | 74 | 85 | 90 | 93 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 285 | 312 | 339 | -18 | -6 | 29 | 45 | 59 | 68 | 74 |
695 | 282 | 487 | 518 | -35 | -7 | 26 | 51 | 70 | 83 | 89 |
1,265 | 304 | 671 | 698 | -17 | -2 | 32 | 56 | 73 | 83 | 89 |
1,895 | 298 | 899 | 911 | -13 | -1 | 46 | 71 | 85 | 92 | 95 |
2,676 | 302 | 1,016 | 1,033 | -18 | -2 | 64 | 91 | 98 | 99 | 99 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 1,545 | 772 | 808 | -28 | -4 | 45 | 70 | 84 | 91 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 798 | 571 | 619 | -32 | -5 | 34 | 58 | 76 | 86 | 92 |
Men | 747 | 1,039 | 1,082 | -24 | -3 | 57 | 81 | 92 | 95 | 97 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 305 | 330 | 392 | -25 | -7 | 36 | 51 | 67 | 74 | 83 |
742 | 297 | 553 | 587 | -31 | -5 | 35 | 60 | 82 | 91 | 94 |
1,411 | 314 | 773 | 808 | -33 | -4 | 38 | 66 | 82 | 94 | 96 |
2,189 | 312 | 1,047 | 1,082 | -25 | -2 | 52 | 76 | 89 | 95 | 99 |
3,134 | 317 | 1,210 | 1,233 | -23 | -2 | 65 | 93 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 1,608 | 933 | 986 | -40 | -4 | 46 | 71 | 83 | 90 | 94 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 841 | 699 | 743 | -43 | -6 | 37 | 59 | 76 | 86 | 92 |
Men | 767 | 1,265 | 1,333 | -37 | -3 | 56 | 83 | 91 | 94 | 96 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 313 | 364 | 466 | -37 | -9 | 36 | 49 | 61 | 70 | 78 |
865 | 311 | 666 | 707 | -39 | -6 | 37 | 64 | 85 | 93 | 96 |
1,670 | 327 | 940 | 986 | -45 | -5 | 39 | 70 | 84 | 92 | 96 |
2,623 | 328 | 1,266 | 1,333 | -40 | -3 | 55 | 76 | 88 | 94 | 98 |
3,858 | 329 | 1,481 | 1,536 | -42 | -3 | 64 | 95 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |
Beneficiary group | Sample size | PIA (dollars) | Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA | Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statement | Deflated retirement | Dollars | Percent | Within 5 percent | Within 10 percent | Within 15 percent | Within 20 percent | Within 25 percent | ||
Statement age 25 | ||||||||||
All | 29 | 217 | 282 | -30 | -18 | 6 | 24 | 27 | 49 | 64 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Men | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
AIME quintile | ||||||||||
Lowest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Second | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Third | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Fourth | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Highest | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b | b |
Statement age 30 | ||||||||||
All | 1,221 | 310 | 351 | -35 | -10 | 15 | 32 | 49 | 60 | 67 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 441 | 233 | 268 | -40 | -14 | 10 | 21 | 33 | 44 | 53 |
Men | 780 | 357 | 385 | -34 | -8 | 18 | 38 | 58 | 67 | 74 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 241 | 195 | 185 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 33 | 42 |
451 | 248 | 253 | 272 | -22 | -7 | 14 | 26 | 38 | 50 | 56 |
700 | 245 | 312 | 351 | -30 | -9 | 20 | 39 | 53 | 63 | 73 |
966 | 235 | 369 | 400 | -38 | -9 | 32 | 53 | 66 | 72 | 78 |
1,229 | 252 | 390 | 445 | -57 | -13 | 2 | 28 | 66 | 81 | 87 |
Statement age 35 | ||||||||||
All | 1,576 | 449 | 472 | -20 | -4 | 26 | 47 | 60 | 69 | 75 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 683 | 307 | 371 | -39 | -11 | 16 | 33 | 44 | 57 | 63 |
Men | 893 | 542 | 550 | -10 | -2 | 32 | 58 | 71 | 78 | 83 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 313 | 219 | 241 | -7 | -4 | 15 | 29 | 41 | 52 | 59 |
564 | 315 | 339 | 359 | -16 | -4 | 17 | 33 | 44 | 52 | 59 |
912 | 314 | 455 | 472 | -15 | -3 | 20 | 39 | 52 | 66 | 74 |
1,289 | 309 | 549 | 564 | -20 | -4 | 35 | 60 | 74 | 81 | 86 |
1,712 | 325 | 600 | 632 | -40 | -6 | 42 | 76 | 90 | 94 | 97 |
Statement age 40 | ||||||||||
All | 1,795 | 591 | 626 | -30 | -5 | 31 | 51 | 65 | 74 | 80 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 868 | 417 | 485 | -51 | -11 | 20 | 37 | 49 | 63 | 71 |
Men | 927 | 752 | 770 | -14 | -2 | 40 | 63 | 78 | 84 | 88 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 357 | 275 | 316 | -26 | -10 | 23 | 37 | 50 | 61 | 67 |
702 | 362 | 425 | 469 | -44 | -10 | 17 | 30 | 44 | 58 | 70 |
1,171 | 361 | 598 | 626 | -30 | -5 | 23 | 45 | 58 | 70 | 78 |
1,714 | 349 | 756 | 779 | -25 | -3 | 39 | 61 | 74 | 83 | 88 |
2,333 | 366 | 858 | 881 | -28 | -3 | 52 | 83 | 97 | 99 | 99 |
Statement age 45 | ||||||||||
All | 1,937 | 710 | 754 | -30 | -4 | 35 | 60 | 76 | 84 | 90 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 990 | 523 | 575 | -44 | -7 | 25 | 47 | 65 | 76 | 85 |
Men | 947 | 934 | 958 | -18 | -2 | 46 | 73 | 86 | 92 | 94 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 387 | 346 | 379 | -22 | -6 | 26 | 45 | 61 | 71 | 77 |
793 | 392 | 522 | 561 | -42 | -8 | 24 | 45 | 65 | 77 | 83 |
1,370 | 389 | 703 | 753 | -42 | -5 | 29 | 52 | 72 | 81 | 92 |
2,054 | 376 | 936 | 962 | -31 | -3 | 48 | 70 | 82 | 93 | 97 |
2,853 | 393 | 1,071 | 1,093 | -19 | -2 | 51 | 89 | 99 | 99 | 100 |
Statement age 50 | ||||||||||
All | 2,010 | 813 | 875 | -39 | -5 | 41 | 65 | 80 | 89 | 93 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 1,050 | 607 | 663 | -46 | -7 | 31 | 54 | 71 | 84 | 90 |
Men | 960 | 1,080 | 1,126 | -34 | -3 | 50 | 77 | 89 | 94 | 96 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 402 | 402 | 431 | -27 | -6 | 35 | 54 | 67 | 76 | 81 |
896 | 407 | 595 | 644 | -44 | -7 | 34 | 54 | 73 | 85 | 92 |
1,570 | 402 | 818 | 875 | -49 | -6 | 32 | 59 | 76 | 89 | 95 |
2,381 | 392 | 1,090 | 1,132 | -42 | -4 | 48 | 70 | 87 | 95 | 97 |
3,345 | 407 | 1,263 | 1,289 | -31 | -2 | 54 | 90 | 98 | 99 | 100 |
Statement age 55 | ||||||||||
All | 2,070 | 1,021 | 1,092 | -50 | -5 | 42 | 66 | 81 | 88 | 93 |
Sex | ||||||||||
Women | 1,098 | 755 | 831 | -60 | -7 | 31 | 54 | 71 | 83 | 90 |
Men | 972 | 1,379 | 1,438 | -42 | -3 | 53 | 79 | 90 | 94 | 96 |
AIME quintile (dollars) | ||||||||||
0 | 416 | 473 | 526 | -37 | -7 | 36 | 53 | 64 | 72 | 78 |
1,062 | 415 | 739 | 798 | -53 | -7 | 33 | 56 | 74 | 85 | 92 |
1,927 | 413 | 1,020 | 1,091 | -69 | -6 | 37 | 62 | 79 | 91 | 96 |
2,977 | 406 | 1,385 | 1,441 | -55 | -4 | 47 | 72 | 86 | 94 | 98 |
4,260 | 420 | 1,604 | 1,649 | -40 | -2 | 58 | 89 | 99 | 99 | 100 |
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations. | ||||||||||
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. | ||||||||||
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term. | ||||||||||
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns. | ||||||||||
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes. |