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Frederick W. Hollmann/Tammany J. Mulder
301-457-2428
Census Bureau Projects Doubling of
Nation's Population by 2100
The nation's resident population could more than double in this century,
according to national population projections to the year 2100 released
today by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau.
According to the projections, the nation's resident population
273 million on July 1, 1999 is projected to reach 404 million in 2050 and
571 million in 2100. These results are based on middle-level assumptions
regarding population growth during the century.
"Even though childbearing levels in the United States remain quite close
to the level needed only to replace the population, the increasing number
of potential parents and continued migration from abroad would be
sufficient to add nearly 300 million people during the next century," said
Census Bureau analyst Frederick W. Hollmann. "Because the Hispanic and
Asian and Pacific Islander populations in the U.S. are younger than the
nation as a whole and because they continue to receive international
migrants, these populations will become increasingly prominent."
The data also show lowest and highest alternative projections. The
lowest series projects population growth to 314 million in 2050 and then a
decline to 283 million in 2100. The highest projects 553 million people in
2050 and 1.2 billion in 2100.
The projections do not take into account possible future changes in the
way people report their race and ethnicity and, because of the length of
time covered and other uncertainties, they are considered less reliable
for the latter part of the century.
According to the middle series projections, the Hispanic population (of
any race) would triple from 31.4 million in 1999 to 98.2 million in
2050. By 2005, Hispanics may become the nation's largest minority group.
The percentage of Hispanics in the total population could rise from
12 percent in 1999 to 24 percent in 2050.
The Asian and Pacific Islander population, meanwhile, would more than
triple, from 10.9 million in 1999 to 37.6 million in 2050. Its percentage
of the total population would rise from 4 percent now to 9 percent in
2050.
According to the projections, the non-Hispanic White and African
American populations would increase more slowly than the other groups. The
non-Hispanic White population would rise from 196.1 million in 1999 to
213.0 million in 2050 a 9 percent increase. Its share of the total
population would decline, however, from 72 percent in 1999 to 53 percent
in 2050.
The African American population, according to the projections, would
rise from 34.9 million in 1999 to 59.2 million in 2050 a 70-percent
increase; under this scenario, the African American share of the total
population would increase slightly, from 13 percent to 15 percent.
Between 1999 and 2050, the total number of foreign-born would more than
double, increasing from 26.0 million to 53.8 million. The proportion of
the nation's population that is foreign-born may rise from 10 percent in
1999 to 13 percent in 2050.
The population age 65 and over would grow from 34.6 million in 1999 to
82.0 million in 2050 a 137 percent increase. The projections also show an
especially rapid surge in the elderly population as the surviving "baby
boomers" pass age 65; in the year 2011, baby boomers (those born between
1946 and 1964) will begin turning 65. Between 2011 and 2030, the number of
elderly would rise from 40.4 million (13 percent of the population) to
70.3 million (20 percent of the population).
The projections show that the number of children under 18 would increase
from 70.2 million in 1999 to 95.7 million in 2050. However, their share of
the nation's population would decline slowly, falling from 26 percent in
1999 to 24 percent in 2050.
The projections are based on assumptions about future childbearing,
mortality and migration. The level of childbearing among women for the
middle series is assumed to remain close to present levels, with
differences by race and Hispanic origin diminishing over time. Mortality
is assumed to decline gradually with less variation by race and Hispanic
origin than at present. International migration is assumed to vary over
time and decrease generally relative to the size of the population.
Assumptions for the lowest and highest series are summarized in a working
paper, titled Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections
of the United States: 1999 to 2100, HTML Version or PDF Version also
released today.
This is the first time that the Census Bureau has projected the
population to 2100 and the first time it includes information on the
foreign-born population. The projections are presented by age, sex, race
and Hispanic origin.
available free from Adobe.
