U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology Program--Proceedings
of the Technical Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado, September 20-24, 1993,
Water-Resources Investigations Report 94-4015
Solute-Transport Parameter Estimation for an Injection Experiment
at Pinal Creek, Arizona
by
Brian J. Wagner (U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, Calif.)
and Judson W. Harvey (U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, Calif.)
Abstract
Parameter estimation is an important step in the development of contaminant-transport
simulation models. In this paper, we demonstrate an inverse modeling methodology
for estimating the transport parameters that characterize the migration,
attenuation, and redistribution of contaminants. The inverse model proceeds
in two stages: In stage one, a finite difference solute-transport simulation
model is coupled with nonlinear least-squares regression to identify the
model parameter values that "best" reproduce the measured solute
concentrations. In stage two, solute-transport simulation is combined with
first-order uncertainty analysis to quantify parameter-estimate uncertainty.
The methodology is widely applicable to transport models for ground-water
and stream systems; here we demonstrate the application to a stream system.
Using data from an injection experiment at Pinal Creek, Arizona, the inverse
model is applied to analyze parameters for a one-dimensional solute-transport
model with advection, dispersion, lateral inflow, and transient storage.
The parameters estimated by the inverse model are dispersion coefficient,
stream cross-sectional area, storage-zone cross-sectional area, and stream-storage
exchange coefficient. The parameter estimates and associated uncertainties
support the interpretation that the transient-storage mechanism is active
in Pinal Creek. A discussion of concentration sensitivity to these four
estimated parameters is presented to explain how analysis of uncertainties
in parameter estimates can be used to identify sampling strategies for reliable
parameter estimation.
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