Office of Operations Freight Management and Operations

APPENDIX A
COMPARISON OF DATA SOURCES AND FORECASTS

A.1) A Comparison of Data Sources


Table A-1. A Comparison of the OAI and Customs Data with FAF
Dimensions FAF/CFS OAI Census/Customs Impact
Who ShipsU.S. business establishments in mining, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and select retail industries. Excludes household and government shipments in addition to business sectors not listed above.Anyone shipping by commercial air carriers in or to/from the U.S., or by U.S. carriers abroad. Military are excluded from the public version of the T-100 data. Carriers designated as All-Cargo carriers, representing a small fraction of air cargo, are also excluded.Anyone shipping to/from the United States except certain intra-governmental shipments.The three industries excluded from FAF that are likely to have an impact on the OAI/Customs data are Services, Retail, and Transportation.
What is ShippedAll shipments by establishments listed above by weight, value, and commodity type that are directly related to the primary business of the establishment. Excludes by-products, imports, some commodity-types, and shipments by out-of-scope establishments. Shipments weighing less than 100 lbs are typically included in parcel delivery/courier/U.S.P.SAll property excluding passenger baggage excepting carriers' own shipments. Although mail is reported separately, and is a separate CFS category, it is questionable to separate mail because Fedex often reports mail as a freight to avoid revealing the size of their contract with the U.S.P.S. OAI is pursuing a remedy to this reporting difference.Imports: > $2,000, Exports: >2500 (Canada is an exception), Low-Value are estimated. Mail and parcels are not included in air exports. Shipments that are returned/to-be-repaired under warranty are excluded.OAI data will cover the weight of shipments of by-products, non-covered commodities, and out-of-scope industries, and small shipments. Customs data will similarly pick up the weight of these shipments as well as their commodity type and value with the caveat that small shipments may be poorly estimated. OAI includes mail/parcel shipments while these are excluded from the air summary of the Customs data and reported under a separate mode for CFS data.
Where ShippedWithin the U.S. - includes shipments which both start and end in the U.S., but pass through another country, and imports after they leave the importers U.S. location, and exports to the border. In-transit shipments are excluded as well as shipments to households.No foreign-to-foreign or in-transit on the publicly available market data. Purely foreign segments are excluded from the segment data.In-transit is not necessarily included. Shipments to/from Puerto Rico will be attributed to Puerto Rico and therefore excluded from U.S. exports/ imports for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Imports from the U.S. Virgin Islands are collected, but not exports to the U.S.V.I.OAI data is likely to pick up a large portion of in-transit shipments that either change planes or carriers in the U.S., or are off-loaded to an FTZ or bonded warehouse.
How ShippedAll modes except pipeline.Only AirWhile all modes are reported, only water and air are broken out as separate modes.OAI data contains both the air-truck and parcel modes used by CFS.
How is it CountedThrough a survey of the above-referenced business establishmentsAs reported by carriersBased on documents/electronic filings given to customs detailing what is shipped, standard weights applied. Imports from Canada are provided to Census by the Canadian governmentEmpty cell
When is it reportedThe survey is taken every five years with the last survey occurring in 2002.Sixty days after the end of the month the data pertains to for U.S. carriers. Six months after the data month for foreign carriers.Exports: when the shipment leaves the country. Imports: when the shipment is released to the importer. Note that a shipment may be further processed in a foreign-trade zone before it is released.The Customs data for imports is likely to lag both the OAI and CFS data.
How are values countedFree-on-board at the plantNA

Exports: Free-alongside-Ship (excludes freight and insurance). Imports:a) Customs Import Value – excludes duties, freight, insurance and other costs associated with exportation and assistance from the importer, b) Customs Insurance and Freight (C.I.F.) – C.I.V + import charges (excludes duties)

The Customs and CFS data are comparable for exports. For imports, the C.I.F. Customs data best reflects the cost at the border.
Values MeasureMillion DollarsNADollarsEmpty cell
Commodity Types2-digit Standard Classification of Transported GoodsNA10 digit Harmonized Tariff Schedule (Imports)/Schedule B (Exports)Crosswalk provided by FHWA
Weight MeasureKilotons (2,000,000 lbs)PoundsKilogramsEmpty cell
Geography:CFS – county level and is aggregated to FAF region level for FAFAirports with latitude and longitude included. Market data: origin airport is where the shipment was initially loaded by the carrier and destination is the airport where the carrier unloaded the shipment. Segment data: origin and destination refer to a non-stop segment whether or not the shipment was unloaded.Customs District (Sub-Districts reported for some data products and available to help with matching) which may include multiple states. Exports are organized by Port of Exit (generally where loaded on transportation used to cross border) and Destination (foreign country). Imports are organized by Origin (foreign country) - Port of Entry (where it passes through customs) and Port of Unlading (where it is unloaded from the plane).A crosswalk from counties to FAF regions was provided by FHWA. Supplemental files from Census were used: Counties, County Sub-Districts, and Places.
OtherEmpty cellThere is a six-month delay in the release of foreign carrier data. U.S. carriers' foreign-to-foreign shipments are withheld for a period of three years.Privacy/Disclosure Restrictions may undercount data at District and individual commodity level.Empty cell
Sources: CFS/FAF – FAF2 Technical Documentation, http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/faf2_tech_document.htm.
OAI – Code of Federal Regulations, vol. 14, part 241, http://www.access.gpo.gov/nara/cfr/cfr-table-search.html#page1.
Customs – Guide to Foreign Trade Statistics, http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/guide/

A.2) Forecasts


Table A-2. Third Quarter Forecasts of Tons Enplaned by Foreign Carriers (in 1,000s)
Year Dom./Intl.
Actual		 Forecasts Error Percentage Error
YTD Second Quarter Second Quarter YTD Second Quarter Second Quarter YTD Second Quarter Second Quarter
Carrier Groups Combined before Forecast
2002 Combined 1,019 902 955 -117 -64 -11.5 -6.3
2002 Separate Empty cell 902 955 -117 -64 -11.5 -6.3
2003 Combined 1,037 1,084 1,045 47 8 4.5 0.7
2003 Separate Empty cell 1,084 1,045 47 8 4.5 0.7
2004 Combined 1,186 1,164 1,192 -22 6 -1.8 0.5
2004 Separate Empty cell 1,164 1,192 -22 7 -1.8 0.5
2005 Combined 1,211 1,259 1,239 48 28 4.0 2.3
2005 Separate Empty cell 1,259 1,239 48 29 4.0 2.3
2006 Combined Empty cell 1,240 1,226 Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell
2006 Separate Empty cell 1,318 1,303 Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell
Average Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell -11 -5 -1.2 -0.7
Average Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell -11 -5 -1.2 -0.7
Std Dev Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 78 40 7.4 3.8
Std Dev Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 78 40 7.4 3.8
Avg Abs Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 58 27 5.4 2.5
Avg Abs Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 58 27 5.5 2.5
Notes: Domestic operations by foreign carriers are legally restricted and represent only a small portion of combined operations. The separate forecasts are reported here for consistency with the general framework. More detailed notes are given below Table 2.2.

Table A-3. Fourth Quarter Forecasts of Tons Enplaned by All Carriers (in 1,000s)
Year Dom./Intl.
Actual		 Forecasts Error Percentage Error
YTD Latest Quarter Latest Quarter YTD Latest Quarter Latest Quarter YTD Latest Quarter Latest Quarter
Carrier Groups Combined before Forecast
2002 Combined 3,567 2,758 3,007 -809 -560 -22.7 -15.7
2002 Separate Empty cell 2,766 3,017 -801 -550 -22.5 -15.4
2003 Combined 3,668 4,191 4,173 522 505 14.2 13.8
2003 Separate Empty cell 4,204 4,194 536 526 14.6 14.3
2004 Combined 5,709 5,522 5,550 -187 -159 -3.3 -2.8
2004 Separate Empty cell 5,685 5,675 -24 -34 -0.4 -0.6
2005 Combined 5,640 5,782 5,763 143 123 2.5 2.2
2005 Separate Empty cell 5,747 5,747 107 107 1.9 1.9
2006 Combined Empty cell 5,668 5,655 Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell
2006 Separate Empty cell 5,720 5,682 Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell
Average Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell -83 -23 -2.3 -0.6
Average Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell -46 12 -1.6 0.1
Std Dev Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 564 450 15.4 12.2
Std Dev Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 557 444 15.4 12.2
Avg Abs Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 415 337 10.7 8.6
Avg Abs Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 367 305 9.8 8.1
Groups Forecast Separately
2004 Combined 5,709 5,830 5,821 121 112 2.1 2.0
2004 Separate Empty cell 5,833 5,827 124 118 2.2 2.1
2005 Combined 5,640 5,771 5,753 131 114 2.3 2.0
2005 Separate Empty cell 5,770 5,753 131 114 2.3 2.0
2006 Combined Empty cell 5,475 4,913 Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell
2006 Separate Empty cell 5,545 4,958 Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell
Average Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell -9 43 -1.0 0.5
Average Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell -3 52 -0.8 0.8
Std Dev Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 566 442 15.5 12.1
Std Dev Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 566 442 15.5 12.1
Avg Abs Combined Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 396 323 10.3 8.4
Avg Abs Separate Empty cell Empty cell Empty cell 398 327 10.4 8.5
Dom. = Domestic, Intl. = International, YTD = Year-to-Date

Groups: OAI classifies carriers into groups based on operating revenues and the type of certificate the carrier holds. The relevant groups above are carriers that reported fully prior to 10/2002 (majors, nationals, medium and large regionals) and those that began reporting in 10/2002: Federal Express, commuter, small-certificated and all-cargo carriers. Federal Express did report international operations prior to 10/2002, but not domestic. All-cargo carriers include only ABX (formerly Airborne Express).

Data for 2006 was adjusted to account for late reporting carriers as described in the main body of the text.

Notes: Based on OAI T-100 Market data downloaded between October 2006 and January 2007. The earlier years will not reflect the effects of data revisions that will be experienced under normal production conditions going forward. The data is affected by two significant events: the 9/11/2001 terrorist attacks and the 10/2002 expansion of the carrier coverage of the T-100 data to include small-certificated and commuter carriers, and domestic operations of Federal Express.

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