Abstract
Bogong Li and Partha Lahiri (2006)
"Improved Preliminary Estimation of Total
Employment Change for the U.S. Current
Employment Statistics Survey"
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases estimates of total
non-farm business payroll employment changes every month. These
estimates have significant impact on US economic policy and financial
market decision makers. However these estimates are produced based
only on "preliminary" Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey
results, final estimates are release two months later. In this paper, we
develop a statistical model based on historical CES data with the following
goals in mind: (1) validate factors that affect monthly employment
changes, (2) measure the magnitude of these effects on monthly
employment movement, (3) prove in part some underlying economic
factors affecting national and regional employment changes. We then
use prediction results from the model to produce improved preliminary
estimates that is more accurate than the current preliminary estimates.
Last Modified Date: January 9, 2007
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