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Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005)

Abstracts for Speakers: Session 4

Energy Systems Management: Application of Climate Science (EN)

Sub-Theme 2: Long-Term Planning and Investment, Including Carbon Management and Integrated Assessment

EN2.1

Science Needs to Inform Long-Term Decision Making in the Energy Sector

Presenter TBD

This paper will examine the impacts of alternative constraints on greenhouse gas emissions on the future configuration on the global energy system. It will discuss the role of global warming potentials (GWPs) and the importance of the choice of the metric for stabilization (emissions, CO₂, radiative forcing, temperature) on the timing of GHG reductions.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN2.2

Improving Climate Information for Hydroelectric Dam Relicensing

Kirstin Dow, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, DowK@gwm.sc.edu

Greg Carbone, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina

Kirsten Lackstrom, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina

Rapid population growth combined with a recent four-year drought has heightened concerns over water supply and quality in North and South Carolina. As demand grows and water systems increasingly face quality issues, interannual and interdecadal climate variability, as well as the potential for longer-term climate change, will play an increasingly important role in water resource management. The relicensing of numerous dams on Carolina watersheds by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), provides an unique setting for understanding how climate information can be
incorporated into operational decisions and planning. Consideration for climate variability and change makes sense given the 30-year duration of the new licenses. This paper reviews the ways in which climate variability and change have been incorporated in interstate water negotiations and the FERC relicensing process. Typically, the FERC process requires a reservoir operations model that allocates water according to a range of optimizing criteria. In some relicensing examples, climate has been considered only implicitly by these models. For example, some simulations have used historic reservoir levels as input to a reservoir operations model. Such data are often of poor quality compared to USGS streamflow records. A more thorough, explicit consideration of climate variability and change would involve hydrologic streamflow modeling. While not adopted in many relicensing negotiations, this approach allows consideration for a wide range of future climate conditions. We will also discuss examples in which treatment of climate information evolved in response to specific stakeholder requests. Recently state agencies requested improved methods for determining low-inflow protocol triggers. This prompted examination of long-term precipitation and streamflow records, and shift from state-level drought assessment to more locally defined triggers. Finally, we will review examples where stakeholders have argued about what defines a climatic anomaly and how extremes should be treated in management and planning.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN2.3

Planning Bio-Energy Options: Climate Feedbacks And Information Needs

Dr. Robin L. Graham, Environmental Sciences Division, M.S. 6036, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6036, GrahamRL@ornl.gov

Bioenergy has been forecast to play a significant mid-term role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and it is the only solution for liquid transportation fuels. Bioenergy could supply 100 to 400 EJ/yr by 2050. While bioenergy is not usually greenhouse gas neutral, it can have much lower net greenhouse gas emissions than its fossil fuel counterparts. The greenhouse gas benefits are strongly feedstock and conversion technology specific. Decisions to exercise the bioenergy option must take into account that while the option could reduce climate change by reducing greenhouse gas
emissions it will also be impacted by climate change. This impact comes about because bioenergy is constrained by feedstock availability, which is a function of plant productivity and land availability, both of which are affected by climate change. Productivity will be directly affected by climate change while land availability will be indirectly affected as climate change alters competing land demands for food, fiber and conservation. CCSP research on land use/land cover change, ecosystems, and human contributions and responses to environmental change will help inform our ability to effectively exercise the bioenergy option.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN2.4

Science for Carbon Management: Making Effective Connections
Between Users and Producers of Information

Dilling, L., Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, ldilling@cires.colorado.edu

Fairman, D., Consensus Building Institute, Cambridge, MA

Pielke, R, Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, CIRES, University of Colorado, CO

King, A., Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

The Carbon Cycle Science element of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), especially the North American Carbon Program (NACP), has a stated goal of providing near-term information of use to decision makers. Carbon management is a relatively new concept—while carbon management has only been seriously discussed for a few decades, water, land and marine resources have been actively managed by society for centuries. The carbon cycle science community therefore does not have a wealth of experience from which to draw upon in trying to develop a scientific agenda that will successfully meet the needs of decision makers. Moreover, as demonstrated by several other areas in Earth science, scientific research does not necessarily generate information that is useful to anyone outside of the scientific community. For example, attempts to provide climate forecasts as a service to farmers and other natural resource managers have disappointed: the information provided was not needed; the information that was needed was not provided; the information lacked regional specificity; the presentation and communication tools did not make the information accessible to potential users; potential users lacked trust in information and researchers; institutional constraints prevented use of new information; and so on. Experience has shown that deliberate research strategies including ongoing involvement with users may be necessary to avoid these disconnects.

The existing research strategy of the carbon cycle science program does not yet have a focus on ensuring that its research results will be useful to decision makers outside the scientific community. We are an interdisciplinary team that has been engaged in research and dialogue with members of the potential carbon management stakeholder community, including the energy sector, in order to improve the usefulness of carbon cycle science for decision makers.

The presentation will focus on what we have learned thus far from working with stakeholders on the State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR), slated to become CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 2.2, and through dedicated workshops with potential users, carbon cycle scientists and science policy experts. It is clear that in some specific circumstances, carbon cycle information is being used. In other situations, information might be needed but is not being provided, either because it doesn't exist or it is being insufficiently "translated"—clearly a "missed opportunity." In this presentation we will conclude with some potential steps forward to capitalize on this opportunity, including options for structuring research, institutional implications, and lessons learned.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN2.5

The Future of Integrated Assessment Modeling as a Decision Support Tool for Energy and Climate

Gerald Stokes, JGCRI/UMCP/PNNL, stokes@pnl.gov

We are now entering a new era for climate change technology, implementation. As we contemplate this phase there are three important aspects of the challenge that will face decision makers. First, over the course of the next century, the changes, particularly in the energy system, required to
stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations are massive. Second, the changes in the energy system will be occurring in the face of other policy challenges, such as energy security and regional air quality. Finally, the increased importance of renewable energy, the non-uniform distribution of sequestration and carbon storage options and the differing national pressures associated with energy matters will force energy solutions to be regional and highly integrated.

The integrated nature of future energy strategies associated the greenhouse gas emission mitigation is reflected in more than the classic integration of large-scale energy systems. It will involve integration with respect to resources, such as land and water, and related policies. Given uncertainties with respect to the many parameters that may affect decisions on energy systems ranging from the climate itself to the variety of other policies that may affect energy, the challenge is large. Future systems will need to match the complex decision-making environment and incorporate advances from modeling to data acquisition and analysis.

This presentation, made from the perspective of the leader of a major group of developers of decision support tools, will highlight the need for increasing regional and multi-resource tools. It will highlight how the science of integrated assessment from CCSP will need to grow to meet the eventual deployment challenge facing CCTP.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

EN2.6

Tools for Interactive Decision Making under Uncertainty on Energy and Climate Change

Jurgen Scheffran, University of Illinois, scheffra@uiuc.edu

A framework for interactive decision making under uncertainty will be presented that integrates tools from time-series analysis, probabilistic Bayesian learning, control theory and dynamic games to provide decision support in negotiations and stakeholder dialogues on mitigation and adaptation of climate change. Actors can choose targets and actions on issues such as emission reduction, emissions trading, energy technologies, carbon capturing and sequestration, technology transfer and financing. Target setting takes into consideration the selection or exclusion of certain system states or trajectories based on uncertainty analysis, probabilistic scenarios and risk assessment of dangerous climate change. Actions are selected according to behavioral rules that depend on the targets, the state of the environment and actions by other actors. In feedback cycles the actors mutually adjust investments according to strategies and learning mechanisms which include cooperative control and coalition formation. This approach provides elements for an integrated assessment of climate, economic and policy modules. A specific case will be presented for decision-making on energy, using a new database on population, GDP, energy and carbon emissions, and uncertainty estimates of carbon intensity and climate sensitivity. For given global limits on carbon concentration and temperature, emission trajectories are determined and strategies for investment in energy systems, including technology transfer and cooperation between industrialized and developing countries.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]