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Projections Of Education Statistics To
2011
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Hello, and welcome to today's
StatChat. I'm sure that you have many questions regarding today's
release of the Projections of Education Statistics to 2011, so let's
get right to them... |
| Jennifer from Arlington, VA asked: |
| The data in your new
publication are projected estimates, not observed estimates. Have
you done any follow-up research to assess how accurate your
projections are once we have passed the date of the projection
(i.e., did you look back at your projections for 1999 in the year
2000 to see if they were accurate?) |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Jennifer, thank you for your question.
This is a good question to start off our StatChat. One of the
activities of the NCES Projection Program is to conduct evaluations
of past projections and measure projection accuracy. We do
evaluations every year and examine the accuracy of projections made
one to ten years out. In the report at
http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2001/2001083.pdf, click on the bookmark—A.
Projection Methodology and locate table A2.—Mean absolute percentage
errors by lead-time for selected statistics. For example, this table
shows that for public school enrollment, the mean absolute
percentage errors for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were
0.2, 0.5, 1.2, and 2.9 percent, respectively.
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| Terry from Gary, Indiana asked: |
| Are there any
projections that you have come up that would have an impact on the
way that education is funded in this country? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
One reason that projections such as our
enrollment and current expenditures projections are produced is to
serve as a resource to policy makers as they make decisions
concerning such topics as education
funding. |
| Nancy from Boston, Mass. asked: |
| What are some of the
reasons that you have for projecting a decline in H.S. graduates in
both public and private schools in 2009-2011? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Hello Nancy. This decrease in high
school graduates is primarily demographic. It reflects changes in
the 18-year-old population from 2009-2011. This age cohort is
projected to decline to around 3 percent during this period. In the
report at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2001/2001083.pdf, click on the
bookmark-- Appendix B—Supplementary Tables and locate table B4 on
population trends. |
| Al from Arlington, VA asked: |
| re: Table 33.-Current
expenditures and current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment
in public elementary and secondary schools, with alternative
projections: 1985-86 to 2010-11 How do these estimates factor in the
cost of providing special education services as specified under
IDEA? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
The projections of current expenditures
do not specifically consider specific programs such as IDEA. The
model used to produce these projections has three economic and
demographic variables including such variables as disposable income
per capita. The methodology is discussed in Appendix A5 of the book.
At the present time, this appendix is only available in the pdf file
of the entire book. |
| Al from Arlington, VA asked: |
| Is there any way to use
the "Degrees Conferred" to estimate the number of teacher candidates
that will be available in 2011? Has this been done already and if
so, where can we find these data? Thanks, |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
We have not used any of our “Degrees
Conferred” projections to estimate the number of teacher candidates.
We have not looked into ways to do that. |
| Frank from Jackson, Miss. asked: |
| Your press release
states that "per student spending is projected to increase about 24
percent in constant dollars between 2001-02 and 2010-11." Is this
increase in federal funds or state funds? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
The 24 percent increase includes
spending by local, state and federal
governments. |
| Heather from Salt Lake City Utah asked: |
| Can you explain why
your projections are so different than projections made at the state
level. For example, Utah officials say enrollment will grow by 96K
students by 2010 while your report shows enrollment grows by just
33K. In addition, the actual enrollment your report shows for 1999
is not the same as the actual enrollment count in Utah.
Thanks |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Hello Heather. Our actual counts are
based on state reports received by the Common Core of Data survey
conducted at NCES. So our numbers may differ from state numbers
using different definitions for counting students for various
purposes. Also, the assumptions underlying the projection
methodologies for progression rates and immigration are probably not
the same. I would like to investigate the differences. Please share
your forecasts with me. I can be reached at
William.Hussar@ed.gov. |
| Sally from Albany, NY asked: |
| Are there certain kinds
of projections that you do at the request of Congress or the
President? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
There are no projections that we
prepare on a regular basis specifically for either the President or
Congress. However they are frequent users of the Projections report.
We produce projections from time to time for offices within the
department. |
| Mark from Cinn., Ohio asked: |
| Do you ever look at
State projections when you come up with national
estimates? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Hi Mark. Our national estimates are
done first. Next, individual state projections are developed. To
insure consistency, the state projections are summed and then
control to the national estimate. We do not use other State
projections when we come up with our national estimate. Our state
projections are developed using a consistent methodology. They are
not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual
states. When results from individual states are available, we use
them to prepare evaluations of our
projections. |
| Brock from Austin, Texas asked: |
| Based on degrees
awarded in different categories can you project what programs people
should be enrolling in so they can secure better
jobs? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
The degree projections presented in the
Projections of Education Statistics are not designed for such a
purpose. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics periodically
produces its Occupational Outlook Handbook which should be useful.
It is available at http://stats.bls.gov/ocohome.htm?Lnav.
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| John from Columbia, Maryland asked: |
| Is the methodology that
you use easily adaptable to the state level? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Yes, our methodology could be used by
state governments. In fact, we have talked to researchers from some
states, and also from cities and other countries who have used
similar methodologies. |
| Tom from Raleigh, N.C. asked: |
| I know you put this
book out every year, but could you tell me what are the main uses
for this kind of information? How are the projections used at the
national, state and local levels? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Hello Tom. One objective of an annual
Projections Report is to project key education statistics for policy
planning. At the national level, projections are used by Congress to
make legislative decisions. At the state and local levels, national
trends are compared to trends in state governments and school
districts. In addition, projections are used by individuals in
business and industry, educational associations, media, and the
public. |
| Ellie from Rixeyville, VA asked: |
| Are there any plans to
project enrollment by race and ethnic
characteristics? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Yes, we have developed some models to
produce elementary and secondary enrollment projections by race/
ethnicity. These models presently are being
finalized. |
| Serina from Eggbornsville, W VA asked: |
| Why are full-time
enrollments in college projected to increase faster than part-time
enrollments? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Hi Serina. The increase in the
traditional college-age population (18- to 24-year-olds) and rising
enrollment rates are expected to cause growth in full-time
enrollment. Since the younger students tend to enroll full time,
full-time enrollment will outpace part-time
enrollment. |
| Grant from Ashland, OR asked: |
| Do you ever put out
special reports when a projection you make turns out to be
incorrect? If not might I suggest that these be done and posted on
your website as well along with the regular
reports. |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Most demographic and economic
projections will have some error. As we noted in our answer to our
first question, from Jennifer, we present some measures of forecast
accuracy in each edition of the Projections.
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| Madellin from Chicago IL asked: |
| Are you going to do
projections for higher education finance any
more? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
We hope to when we receive more data.
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| Ted from Lancaster, PA asked: |
| What projections do you
most enjoy doing? |
| Debra E. Gerald & William J. Hussar: |
Hello Ted. This will be our last
question. Earned Degrees Conferred. |
| Thanks for all of your
excellent questions. Unfortunately, we could not get to all of them,
but please feel free to contact the Projections staff if you need any
assistance. We hope that you found this session to be helpful and the
report to be interesting. |
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