Public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase to 54 million in 2017. The South is projected to experience the largest increase in the number of students enrolled.

In 2008, about 49.8 million students are expected to be enrolled in public elementary and secondary schools. Of these students, 34.9 million will be enrolled in prekindergarten (preK) through 8th grade and 14.9 million will be enrolled in grades 9 through 12.

Public school enrollment declined during the 1970s and early 1980s and increased in the latter part of the 1980s. Enrollment continued to increase throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. Between 2000 and 2008, public school enrollment is expected to increase by 2.6 million students, reaching 49.8 million students in 2008 (see table 3-1). Total public school enrollment is projected to set new enrollment records each year from 2008 through 2017, reaching an estimated high of 54.1 million students.

Enrollment trends in grades preK–8 and 9–12 have differed over time as students move through the public school system. For example, enrollment in grades preK–8 decreased throughout the 1970s and early 1980s, while enrollment in grades 9–12 decreased in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s. Public school enrollment in grades preK–8 is projected to increase to 34.9 million in 2008 and to reach 38.4 million in 2017. Enrollment in grades 9–12 is projected to decrease from 15 million in 2007 to 14.6 million in 2011 and then increase to 15.7 million in 2017.

Between 2000 and 2008, total enrollment is expected to increase by over 1.8 million students in the South and by 1.0 million students in the West, and to decrease slightly in both the Midwest and Northeast. Since 1965, the South has had the largest share of public school enrollment in the United States. Projections indicate that, by 2008, the share for the South will have increased from 33 percent in 1965 to 38 percent by 2008 and to 40 percent by 2017. The share for the West is projected to increase from 18 percent in 1965 to 25 percent by 2008, and to remain at 25 percent in 2017. In contrast, the share of enrollment in the Midwest is projected to decrease from 28 percent in 1965 to 22 percent by 2008, and to reach 20 percent in 2017. Enrollment in the Northeast is projected to decrease from 21 percent in 1965 to 16 percent by 2008, and to reach 15 percent in 2017.