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Projections of Education Statistics to 2017

NCES 2008-078
September 2008

Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: State and Regional (Public School Data)


States

Table A. Projected percentage increases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2005 through 2017

State Percent change    State Percent change
Arizona44.8     Washington7.4
Nevada43.2     Oklahoma7.4
Texas32.9     Alaska6.1
Florida28.9    Maryland5.3
Utah27.5     Nebraska4.6
Georgia27.1     Minnesota4.2
North Carolina23.1     Missouri3.5
Idaho22.9     Illinois3.2
Colorado18.9     Indiana3.0
District of Columbia14.3     Kentucky2.7
Delaware13.1     Alabama2.6
Virginia13.0     Wyoming1.8
Hawaii13.0     New Jersey1.7
Oregon11.2     Kansas1.5
New Mexico11.1     Wisconsin0.9
Tennessee10.4     Mississippi0.4
Arkansas9.9     Montana0.4
California8.7     South Dakota0.4
South Carolina7.8     Iowa0.2
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

The expected 10 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2005 and 2017 plays out differently among the states (reference figures 5–7 and tables 4–9).

  • Increases are projected for 37 states and the District of Columbia, with
    • increases of more than 15 percent projected for 9 states;
    • increases between 5 and 15 percent projected for 13 states and the District of Columbia; and
    • increases of less than 5 percent projected for 15 states.
  • Decreases are projected for 13 states, with
    • decreases of 5 percent or more projected for 8 states; and
    • decreases between 4.99 and 0.1 percent projected for 5 states.

Regions

Table B. Projected percentage decreases in public elementary and secondary school enrollment, by state: 2005 through 2017

State Percent change    State Percent change
Louisianna -12.2   New York -5.2
Vermont -11.7   Massachusetts -4.0
Rhode Island -11.4   New Hampshire -3.8
Maine -8.0   West Virginia -3.5
North Dakota -7.6   Ohio -3.2
Connecticut -6.3   Pennsylvania -2.0
Michigan -6.2      
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (See reference table 5.)

Between 2005 and 2017, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase 19 percent in the South;

  • increase 15 percent in the West;
  • increase less than 1 percent in the Midwest; and
  • decrease 3 percent in the Northeast.

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