Section 1. Elementary and Secondary Enrollment: National
Enrollment increases are expected at both the PK–8 and 9–12 grade spans (figures A and B; reference figures 2 and 3 and table 1).
The grade progression rate method
The method used to project school enrollments assumes that future trends in factors affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, and transfers to and from public schools. See appendix A for more details.
Figure A. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary enrollment, total and by grade level: Selected years, 1992–2017
NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys, various
years; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary
and Secondary School Enrollment Model. (See reference table 1.)
Total enrollment
Total elementary and secondary enrollment
- increased 14 percent between 1992 and 2005; and
- is projected to increase an additional 10 percent between 2005 and 2017.
Enrollment in grades PK–8
Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8
- increased 9 percent between 1992 and 2005; and
- is projected to increase an additional 12 percent between 2005 and 2017.
Enrollment in grades 9–12
Enrollment in grades 9–12
- increased 26 percent between 1992 and 2005; and
- is projected to increase an additional 4 percent between 2005 and 2017.
Figure B. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary enrollment, by control of school: Selected years, 1992–2017
SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Education, NCES, Common Core of Data surveys, various
years; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary
and Secondary School Enrollment Model. (See reference table 1.)
Public elementary and secondary enrollment
Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools
- increased 15 percent between 1992 and 2005; and
- is projected to increase an additional 10 percent between 2005 and 2017.
Private elementary and secondary enrollment
Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools
- increased 7 percent between 1992 and 2005; and
- is projected to increase an additional 5 percent between 2005 and 2017.
Top
PDF & Related Info
William J. Hussar
