Uses and Limitations of Observations, Data, Forecasts, and Other Projections in Decision Support for Selected Sectors and Regions:
Final Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1

This prospectus also is available as a PDF file.

This prospectus also is available as a PDF file.

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Lead Agency: NASA
Supporting Agencies: DOC/NOAA, DOE, DOI/USGS, USAID, EPA

1. Overview

1.1. Description of Topic

Global change information—including observations, data, and a variety of forecasts and projections collected or developed on multiple spatial and temporal scales—has the potential to address international, national, regional, and local decision-support objectives. However, for the information to be useful, its applicability and reliability1 for different applications must be evaluated. As a first step in this process, CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1 will focus on characterizing a subset of the observations from remote sensing and in situ instrumentation that are of high value for decision making. The product will:

• Characterize observational capabilities that are currently or potentially used in decision-support tools
• Catalog a subset of ongoing decision-support activities and demonstration projects that use these capabilities
• Evaluate a limited number of cases studies of these decision-support activities and demonstration projects in detail, focusing on:
  • The potential for a variety of observations (and projections) to be incorporated into different decision-support tools
  • The process and approaches used to actually integrate selected information into decision support
  • The approaches needed to systematically test and document performance2 of the observational capabilities in different decision-support tools.

The detailed evaluation of decision-support activities and demonstration projects will provide the following information:

• Agencies and organizations responsible for developing, operating, and maintaining selected decision-support processes and tools
• Description of observations from remote sensing and in situ instrumentation used
• Nature of interaction between users and producers of information, the approaches for delivering and/or accessing information, and the processes for assimilating information in the decision making process(es)
• Type of information about uncertainty and levels of confidence conveyed, and approaches for tailoring information about uncertainty to specific decision-support contexts and groups of decision makers
• Assessment of the performance of the integrated decision-support solutions utilizing global change information
• Assessment of how global change data are organized, analyzed, and assimilated by decision makers. Ultimately, a prioritized list of decision makers may need to be composed for the focus of this synthesis and assessment report.
• Assessment of the impact on the decision making process of the uncertainty of the information resources being used as inputs to decision process(es).

Each phase of preparing Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1 will result in the following specific products:

• A printed report capturing a profile of experiments at the time of publication (i.e., a “snapshot” of decision-support demonstration projects and activities that incorporate observational capabilities) and addressing the questions listed in section 1.3.
• An online catalog of decision-support demonstration projects with interactive links, which will be updated as additional experiments are conducted and new approaches to incorporating and benchmarking application of observations and other global change research products evolve.

1.2. Audience and Intended Use

This synthesis and assessment report is designed to serve decision makers and stakeholder communities interested in using global change information resources in policy, planning, and other practical uses. The goal is to provide useful information on climate change research products that have the capacity to inform decision processes. The report will also be valuable to the climate change science community because it will indicate types of information generated through the processes of observation and research that are particularly valuable for decision support. In addition, the report will be useful for shaping the future development and evaluation of decision-support activities, particularly with regard to improving the interactions with users and potential users. The focus on interactions among the participating climate change science, decision support, and user communities is essential to the success of the project because of the importance of these interactions in developing relevant and reliable products. The report will develop options for strengthening these interactions.

There are a number of national and international programs focusing on the use of Earth observations and related prediction capacity to inform decision-support tools (see Appendix C). These programs both inform, and are informed by, the CCSP and are recognized in the development of this product. Many of these programs share a common framework architecture that relates the observations from Earth observation systems, and the forecasts and projections from Earth system models as inputs to decisions support tools used to support policy and management decision processes (see Appendix D). To the extent that these programs seek to develop tools and resources for decision support, this report will be of value in future development.

1.3. Questions to be Addressed

Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1 will evaluate specific decision-support demonstration projects, and also compare and contrast across individual experiences to address broader themes, including:

• In Phase 1, the use of Earth observations in decision-support tools
  • What kinds of observations are being used (i.e., under what circumstances is there demand for observations that are already produced or that may be produced)?
  • What limits their usefulness?
  • How reliable are the observations that are used (i.e., through what means is reliability determined)?
  • How are information about uncertainty and levels of confidence conveyed and tailored to specific decision contexts?
  • To what extent do the decision-support tools rely upon global change information? How important are the observations (science results and global change data and information products now available) in the context of the broader effort the decision-support tool was designed to address?
• In Phase 2, the use of global change forecasts and projections in decision-support tools
  • What kinds of forecasts and projections are being used (in the selected set of decision-support tools)?
  • What limits their usefulness?
  • How reliable are the forecasts and projections that are used? How is “reliability” determined?
  • How is information about uncertainty and levels of confidence conveyed and tailored to specific decision contexts?
  • To what extent do these decision-support tools rely upon global change observations and/or projections?

Questions in the following bullets will be addressed in both phase 1 and phase 2:

• Assessment of decision-support tools that use global change information versus those that do not, but could (i.e., under what conditions is global change information sought or needed)?3
  • Why do certain users seek global change information? What kinds of data and information do users request? Under what conditions do certain users seek global change information? Under what conditions are they exposed to global change information?
  • What factors affect this choice (e.g., availability, tradition, access, confidence)?
  • Which decision-support tools specifically support climate-related management decision making among U.S. government agencies?
• Factors affecting access and use of global change information at the Federal, State, and local level
  • What global change information is used?
  • Do decision makers at different levels of government use the information differently?
  • Does access to the information vary from level to level?
  • What limits utility and access?
• Use of global change information in decision-support tools at the Federal, State, and local level
• What are the tools and who owns them?
• How are requirements for information defined and conveyed?
• Does access to the tools vary from level to level?
• What limits the utility of, and access to, global change information by the owners and operators of these tools?
• Use of decision-support tools that address global change in specific sectors versus geographic regions
• Does the utilization of decision-support tools that address global change vary by geographic region or characteristic?

A sample set of national priority areas and specific decision-support demonstration projects are offered in Appendix B. These decision-support demonstration projects are representative of ongoing efforts to assimilate global change data into solutions to serve decision makers. In some cases, global change data are already incorporated and are contributing to decision making processes. In other cases, global change data will provide new information on environmental parameters as key science information.

2. Contact Information

NASA is the lead agency for this product. Key agency contacts are provided below:

NASA
Ronald J. Birk

NASA
Terry McPherson

NOAA
Robert Livezey

USAID
Ayse Tokar


USGS
Richard Bernknopf

EPA
Britta Bierwagen

DOE
Jeff Amthor

3. Lead Authors

The following individuals have been nominated as potential lead authors (Additional biographical information is found in Appendix A):

• Roger King, Professor, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Mississippi State University
• Roger Pielke, Jr., Professor, Environmental Studies, Colorado State University, and Fellow, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
• Roberta Balstad, Director of the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University
• Holly Hartman, Assistant Physical Scientist, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona
• Molly Macauley, Senior Research Fellow, Resources for the Future.

The opportunity to nominate additional authors and contributors was open during the prospectus public comment period. Nominations of authors were accepted through January 2006, via e-mail (with supporting CVs attached) to the NASA points-of-contact listed in Section 2. Authors, contributors, and expert reviewers may be Federal or non-Federal experts with a record of interest and accomplishment in fields pertaining to CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.1. The final slate of authors will be determined by, organized, and compensated through the placement of a contract or grant to industry, academia, or other Non-Governmental Organization (NGO).

4. Stakeholder Interaction

This product requires an interdisciplinary approach, drawing expertise from global change science and impacts assessment; meteorology; risk analysis; decision making analysis; economics; and systems engineering, design, and operation. In addition, success will rely on the information and insights of a range of local and regional decision makers and stakeholders who participate in the selected decision-support demonstration projects. Consultation with local and regional decision makers and stakeholders will be embedded in the process and maintained as an ongoing project component. The research team will develop, in consultation with the project sponsors, the specific processes used to collect project inputs and information from stakeholders, and the individuals and organizations that should be included.

5. Drafting

The lead authors will be named, organized, and compensated through the placement of a contract or grant to industry, academia, or other Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) through an approved NASA procurement. The contract will specify the questions to be addressed (as part of its statement of work), as well as the required budget. The contract will also specify any other requirements of the SAP 5.1 prospectus, such as lead author meetings that are to be open to the public. There is precedent for this type of contractual arrangement under the CCSP (i.e. SAP 2.2).

The lead authors will meet in person, through e-mail exchanges, and via teleconferences to prepare a detailed outline based on input solicited at the expert workshop. The convening lead author may delegate lead responsibility for sections corresponding to the questions listed in Section 1.3. All chapter leads will be involved in preparation of an introductory section to describe the topic, the audience, and the intended uses of Phase 1 and 2 products. The lead authors will incorporate material from any contributing authors in the draft product as they see fit.

The drafting process will include a literature review and an additional workshop structured to include key participants knowledgeable in the uses and limitations of Earth-system observations including measurement of their reliability and value as they are assimilated into Earth-Sun system models and into decision-support tools used for policy and management decisions.

The process used to search for and identify projects will include a systematic review of national and international programs that are focused on extending the use of Earth observations to serve society. These projects will be identified as candidates to be included in the catalog pursuant to an opportunity for public review and comment. Review of the projects will be enabled by a gateway configuration on an Internet site. Criteria will be developed and vetted with the research and user communities for selecting a subset of the candidate projects for more intensive study. The data on those projects will be collected via surveys and interviews. The performance of the projects will be established using accepted procedures for benchmarking. The process for this report will be consistent with the guidelines for preparing CCSP synthesis and assessment reports.

6. Review

Phase 1 and 2 products will be reviewed independently, and follow the process described in the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products: (1) a first draft for expert peer review, (2) a second draft posted for public comment, and (3) a third draft for final review and approval through the CCSP interagency committee and the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC).

The expert peer review process will consist of independent reviews from experts selected by the lead agency, and from a pool of candidates solicited during the expert workshop. Separate expert peer reviewers will be selected for Phases 1 and 2, although there may be overlap. Nominations for expert peer reviewers can be provided to representatives of the organization with which the contract for SAP 5.1 is placed by July 2006. The expert peer review process will be 45 days long. It will be conducted in accordance with NASA’s requirements for peer review and general guidelines from the Office of Management and Budget Final Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review [PDF] (“OMB Peer Review Bulletin”) issued 16 December 2004.

Following expert review, the lead authors will revise the draft product by incorporating comments and suggestions from the reviewers, as the lead authors deem appropriate. Following this revision, the draft product will be released for public comment. The public comment period will last for 45 days and is scheduled to begin December 2006.

Once the revisions are complete, the contracting organization will determine that the product has been prepared in accordance with the Information Quality Act (including ensuring objectivity, utility, and integrity as defined in 67 FR 8452), and it will submit the synthesis and assessment product to the CCSP Interagency Committee for approval. If the CCSP Interagency Committee determines that further revision is necessary, their comments will be sent to the contracting organization for consideration and resolution by lead authors.

If the CCSP Interagency Committee review determines that no further revisions are needed and that the product has been prepared in conformance with the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products, they will submit the product to the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) for clearance. Clearance will require the concurrence of all members of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. Comments generated during the NSTC review will be addressed by the CCSP Interagency Committee in consultation with the lead and supporting agencies and the lead authors.

7. Communication

Hardcopies of the product will be published using the standard format for all CCSP synthesis and assessment products. The final product and the comments received during the expert review and the public comment period will be posted on the CCSP web site. Once the document has been cleared by the NSTC process, the product will be prepared for both web and hardcopy dissemination. The number of hardcopies and the distribution process will be determined as part of the development of this product.

8. Timeline

Appendix A. Biographical Information for Potential Lead Authors

Roger L. King

Dr. Roger L. King is a William L. Giles Distinguished Professor and the Associate Dean for Research and Graduate Studies in the Bagley College of Engineering at Mississippi State University (MSU). His research areas include the intelligent analysis of Earth remote sensing imagery for a variety of decision-support activities. He joined MSU in 1988, where he now serves as Associate Director for Research in the GeoResources Institute, as Director of the Computational GeoSpatial Technologies Center, and as the Director of the National Consortium on Remote Sensing in Transportation – Environmental Assessments. He recently completed a 1-year IPA assignment at NASA Headquarters serving as a senior technical and policy advisor in the role of Chief Technologist for the Earth Science Enterprise Applications Division. Dr. King is very active in the IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society (GRS-S) where he serves as the Chair of the Technical Committee on Data Archiving and Distribution and as a member of the IEEE Committee on Earth Observations. He is the IEEE GRS-S liaison to the International Standards Organization (ISO) Technical Committee on Geographic Information/Geomatics (TC211) and the IEEE-USA Committee on Transportation and Aerospace Technology Policy. He has received numerous awards for his research including the university’s top research honor – the Ralph E. Powe Research Award; being named a member of the Academy of Distinguished Alumni of the Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering at West Virginia University; and a recipient of the Department of Interior’s Meritorious Service Medal. Dr. King received his BSEE from West Virginia University (1973), his MSEE from the University of Pittsburgh (1978), and a Ph.D. in Engineering from the University of Wales – Cardiff (1988). Dr. King is a registered professional engineer in the state of Mississippi.

Roger A. Pielke, Jr.

Dr. Pielke has been on the faculty of the University of Colorado since 2001, and is a Professor in the Environmental Studies Program and a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences (CIRES). At CIRES, Roger serves as the Director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research. Roger’s current areas of interest include understanding the politicization of science, decision making under uncertainty, and policy education for scientists. He serves on the Advisory Panel of the National Science Foundation (NSF) Program on Societal Dimensions of Engineering among other advisory committees. In 2000, Roger received the Sigma Xi Distinguished Lectureship Award and, in 2001, he received the Outstanding Graduate Advisor Award by students in the University of Colorado’s Department of Political Science. From 1993-2001, Roger was a Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Roger sits on the editorial boards of Policy Sciences, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Environmental Science, and Policy and Natural Hazards Review. He is author of numerous articles and essays and is also co-author or co-editor of three books. Dr. Pielke received his Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 1994.

Holly C. Hartman

Dr. Hartmann is an Assistant Physical Scientist in the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources at the University of Arizona. As a participant in the CLIMAS project since its inception, Dr. Hartmann has been involved in assessing hydroclimate forecasts, their communication, and their use in making real-world decisions. She has evaluated official hydroclimate forecasts in order to establish a baseline of performance for tracking improvements due to scientific research. Her research led to the development of a framework for evaluating forecasts from the perspective of decision makers, which has been implemented as a series of assessment tools available online. Dr. Hartmann has a background in hydrologic modeling, water resources management, and water policy. Her current research interests include regional-scale hydroclimate modeling; hydroclimate forecasting and evaluation; communication among research, operations, and stakeholder communities; and evaluation of integrated research. She has received research funding from NOAA, NSF, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society. Dr. Hartman received her Ph.D. from the University of Arizona in 2001.

Molly K. Macauley

Dr. Macauley’s research interests include space economics and policy, the economics of new technologies, recycling and solid waste management, urban transportation policy, and the use of economic incentives in environmental regulation. She also directs Resources for the Future’s academic programs, which include the RFF Seminar Series and fellowship and internship programs. Dr. Macauley has served on numerous special committees of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. She also is on the board of directors of Women in Aerospace and serves as president of the board of advisers for the Thomas Jefferson Program in Public Policy at the College of William and Mary. Dr. Macauley has testified extensively before Congress and is the author of more than 80 articles, reports, and books. Dr. Macauley received her Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University (1983), an M.A. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University (1981), and a B.A. in Economics from the College of William and Mary (1979).

Roberta Balstad

Dr. Balstad is Director of the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University. She has published extensively on science policy, information technology and scientific research, remote-sensing applications and policy, and the role of the social sciences in understanding global environmental change. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota, and was both a senior fellow at Oxford University and a guest scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Dr. Miller was the director of the Division of Social and Economic Sciences at the National Science Foundation, the founder and first executive director of the Consortium of Social Science Associations, and president and CEO of CIESIN before it joined Columbia University. She has lectured widely both in the United States and abroad. She is currently chair of the US National Committee on Science and Technology Data (CODATA), co-chair of the Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs Panel of the NRC decadal study of the Earth sciences, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Open Geospatial Consortium. She previously served as vice president of the International Social Science Council and chaired the NRC Steering Committee on Space Applications and Commercialization, the ICSU strategic assessment panel on Scientific Data and Information, the NATO Advisory Panel on Advanced Scientific Workshops/Advanced Research Institutes, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Dr. Balstad has also been a member of the NRC Space Studies Board.

Nationally Important Application

Partner Agencies

Examples of Decision - Support Tools

Agricultural Efficiency

USDA, DOE

CADRE - Crop Assessment Data Retrieval & Evaluation

Air Quality

EPA, NOAA

CMAQ – Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System
AirNow Air Quality Index

Aviation

FAA, NOAA

NAS – National Airspace System

Carbon Management

USDA, DOE, EPA

CASA/CQUEST – support to the EA92-1605b – Energy Act of 1992

Coastal Management

NOAA, EPA

HAB – Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin / Mapping System
CREWS – Coral Reef Early Warning System

Disaster Management

FEMA, NOAA, USGS

AWIPS – Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
HAZUS-MH – Hazards US – Multi Hazards

Ecological Forecasting

USAID

SERVIR – Regional Visualization & Monitoring System

Energy Management

DOE, EPA

RETScreen™ - Renewable Energy Technology Screen
NEMS – National Energy Modeling System

Homeland Security

DHS

IMAAC – Interagency Model and Atmospheric Assessment Center

Invasive Species

USGS, USDA

ISFS – Invasive Species Forecasting System

Public Health

NIH, CDC

PSS – Plague Surveillance System
EPHTN – Environmental Public Health Tracking Network
RSVP – Rapid Syndrome Validation Project
MMS – Malaria Monitoring and Surveillance

Water Management

USGS, EPA, BoR, USDA

BASINS – Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non-point Sources
AWARDS – Agricultural Water Resources Decision Support
RiverWare – Bureau of Reclamation decision-support tool