Wind Resource Assessment and Forecasting
System Integration researchers at NREL are engaged in wind resource assessments and forecasting study areas as explained below.
NREL is working to provide representations of the wind resource — including seasonal, daily, and hourly data, where possible — to allow models to better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of wind on system operation and to assess availability of transmission.
System operators can significantly reduce the uncertainty of wind output by using wind forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict wind production. Such systems yield both hour-ahead and day-ahead forecasts to support real-time operations. They also inform the scheduling and market decisions necessary for day-ahead planning.
Forecasting allows operators to anticipate wind generation levels and adjust the remainder of generation units accordingly. Improved short-term wind production forecasts let operators make better day-ahead market operation and unit-commitment decisions, help real-time operations in the hour ahead, and warn operators about severe weather events. Advanced forecasting systems can also help warn the system operator if extreme wind events are likely so that the operator can implement a defensive system posture if needed. The seamless integration of wind plant output forecasting — into both power market operations and utility control room operations — is a critical next step in accommodating large penetrations of wind energy in power systems.
