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Updated 11 October, 2003

Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program Final Report, July 2003

Figure 4-2
from Annex C
(Graphics and Photography Source Information)

Figure 4-2: Simulating the Earth's temperature variations and comparing the results to the measured changes can provide insight into the underlying causes of the major changes. A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The simulations represented by the band in (a) were done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those encompassed by the band in (b) were done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulfate aerosols. Those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings included. From (b), it can be seen that the inclusion of anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed temperature changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in (c) when both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. These results show that the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained with other models with anthropogenic forcing. Source: IPCC (2001d).

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