Table 2: Borderplex Bridge and Air Equation Estimation Results
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CSV
EQUATIONS 1-2 are Air Transportation Identities
Equation 1: Air Passengers, Total Departures (thousands)
ELAPET = ELAPED + ELAPEI
Equation 2: Air Passengers, Total Arrivals (thousands)
ELAPDT = ELAPDD + ELAPDI
EQUATIONS 3-12 are Air Transportation Stochastic Equations
Equation 3: U.S. Air Travel Price Index, 1982-1984 = 100
AIRP = f(AIRP.1, PDCGDP)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 39 periods from 1964-2002
airp = 0.84754 * airp[-1] + 44.5066 * pdcgdp - 8.24792
(17.0174) (3.72458) (2.51809)
| Sum Sq |
946.932 |
Std Err |
5.1287 |
LHS Mean |
105.877 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9955 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9952 |
F 2, 36 |
3947.49 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.8062 |
DW(2) |
2.5556 |
H |
0.5858 |
|
Equation 4: Air Passengers, Domestic Departures (thousands)
ELAPED = f(ELAPED.1, ELYWSD/AIRP, DV 911)
Nonlinear Least Squares, annual data for 22 periods from 1981-2002
Elaped = 0.82612 * elaped[-1] + 21.0483 * elywsd/airp - 150.688 * dv911 - 324.617
(7.04844)
(1.03279)
(1.98167)
(0.60654)
| Sum Sq |
128582 |
Std Err |
86.9694 |
LHS Mean |
1482.8 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9322 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9163 |
F 4, 17 |
58.4537 |
|
| DW(1) |
2.2001 |
DW(2) |
2.0029 |
H |
-0.6211 |
|
AR_0 = 0.27511 * AR_1
(1.06312) |
|
|
|
|
Equation 5: Air Passengers, International Departures (thousands)
ELAPEI = f(ELAPEI.1, MXREX, PDCCESTRNPI/PDCGDP)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002
elapei = 0.49491 * elapei [-1] - 0.19892 * mxrex -6.81160 * dv911 - 13.6134 * pdccestrnpi/pdcgdp + 41.6922
(3.23979)
(2.54669)
(1.48202)
(1.15825)
(2.61212)
| Sum Sq |
445.716 |
Std Err |
4.9761 |
LHS Mean |
11.9377 |
|
| R Sq |
0.6691 |
R Bar Sq |
0.5956 |
F 4, 18 |
9.1001 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.2223 |
DW(2) |
1.8125 |
H |
0.5157 |
|
Equation 6: Air Passengers, Domestic Arrivals (thousands)
ELAPDD = f(ELAPDD.1, CESTRNPI/PDCCESTRNPI, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002
elapdd = 0.91955 * elapdd[-1] + 0.88772 * cestrnpi/pdccestrnpi - 121.591 * dv911 + 115.683
(9.43567)
(0.16531)
(1.57280)
(1.13256)
| Sum Sq |
158515 |
Std Err |
91.3394 |
LHS Mean |
1422.51 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9206 |
R Bar Sq |
0.908 |
F 3, 19 |
73.3817 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.7249 |
DW(2) |
1.6678 |
H |
0.4568 |
|
Equation 7: Air Passengers, International Arrivals (thousands)
ELAPDI = f(ELAPDI.1, MXREX, PDCCESTRNPI/PDCGDP)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002
elapdi = 0.77877 * elapdi[-1] - 0.11833 * mxrex + 0.21759 * pdccestrnpi/pdcgdp + 14.4671
(6.00170)
(1.89065)
(0.01736)
(1.09570)
| Sum Sq |
493.062 |
Std Err |
5.0942 |
LHS Mean |
15.3853 |
|
| R Sq |
0.8035 |
R Bar Sq |
0.7725 |
F
3, 19 |
25.8982 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.6222 |
DW(2) |
1.7017 |
H |
-0.4845 |
|
Equation 8: Air Freight, Outbound (thousand tons)
ELAFET = f(ELAFET.1, GDP96, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975-2002
elafet = 0.34113 * elafet[-1] + 0.00576 * gdp96 - 6.9705 * dv911 - 25.2374
(2.02867)
(4.38056)
(3.70933)
(4.19841)
| Sum Sq |
89.6066 |
Std Err |
2.1717 |
LHS Mean |
20.8295 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9687 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9637 |
F 3, 19 |
195.943 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.4562 |
DW(2) |
1.8892 |
H |
2.0793 |
|
Equation 9: Air Freight, Inbound (thousand tons)
ELAFDT = f(ELAFDT.1, ELYLP/PDCCESTRNPI, ELGMP96, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980-2002
elafdt = 0.41934 * elafdt[-1] + 0.00034 * elylp/pdccestrnpi + 5.25436 * elgmp96 - 5.90542 * dv911 - 43.0747
(4.22055)
(0.30584)
(3.24465)
(3.66921)
(4.5494)
| Sum Sq |
62.8499 |
Std Err |
1.9073 |
LHS Mean |
26.7198 |
|
| R Sq |
0.99 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9871 |
F 5, 17 |
337.956 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.8939 |
DW(2) |
2.3568 |
H |
0.1479 |
|
| |
MA_0
= - 0.93588 * MA_1
(3.38261) |
|
|
|
|
Equation 10: Air Mail Price Index (1996 = 100)
MAILP = f(MAILP.1, PDCGDP)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 39 periods from 1964-2002
mailp = 0.06430 * mailp[-1] + 32.1832 * pdcgdp - 3.01038
(0.43204)
(6.34350)
(4.71268)
| Sum Sq |
21.9588 |
Std Err |
0.781 |
LHS Mean |
19.2099 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9946 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9943 |
F
2, 36 |
3299.64 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.9237 |
DW(2) |
2.1208 |
H |
0.4443 |
|
Equation 11: Air Mail, Outbound (thousand tons)
ELAME = f(ELAME.1, ELGMP96, MAILP/PDCGDP, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975-2002
elame = 0.65473 * elame[-1] + 0.04247 * elgmp96 - 0.01800 * mailp/pdcgdp - 1.14069 * dv911 + 0.75765
(3.94033)
(1.44456)
(0.54124)
(6.30882)
(0.92028)
| Sum Sq |
1.0553 |
Std Err |
0.2142 |
LHS Mean |
1.7473 |
|
| R Sq |
0.7345 |
R Bar Sq |
0.6883 |
F
4, 23 |
15.9039 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.943 |
DW(2) |
2.1283 |
H |
0.1106 |
|
Equation 12: Airmail, Inbound (thousand tons)
ELAMD = f(ELAMD.1, ELGMP96, MAILP/PDCGDP, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975-2002
elamd = 0.83160 * elamd[-1] + 0.06354 * elgmp96 + 0.01042 * mailp/pdcgdp - 1.44147 * dv911 - 0.40496
(6.21740)
(0.95369)
(0.14702)
(3.70439)
(0.22777)
| Sum Sq |
4.8725 |
Std Err |
0.4603 |
LHS Mean |
2.8202 |
|
| R Sq |
0.7252 |
R Bar Sq |
0.6774 |
F
4, 23 |
15.1713 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.6837 |
DW(2) |
1.8787 |
H |
1.0486 |
|
EQUATIONS 13-15 are International Bridge Identities
Equation 13: International Bridges, Total Cargo Vehicles (millions)
ELBTT = ELBAT + ELBYT
Equation 14: International Bridges, Total Light Vehicles (millions)
ELBTC = ELBAC + ELBDC + ELBYC + ELBPC
Equation 15: International Bridges, Total Pedestrians (millions)
ELBTW = ELBAW + ELBYW + ELBPW
EQUATIONS 16-23 are International Bridge Stochastic Equations
Equation 16: Bridge of the Americas, Cargo Vehicles (millions)
ELBAT = f(ELBAT.1, CJMQM, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977-2002
elbat = 0.72275 * elbat[-1] + 0.00042 * cjmqm - 0.01454 * dv911 + 0.02716
(5.27650)
(1.53320)
(0.31027)
(1.06493)
| Sum Sq |
0.0733 |
Std Err |
0.0577 |
LHS Mean |
0.2438 |
|
| R Sq |
0.8138 |
R Bar Sq |
0.7885 |
F
3, 22 |
32.0614 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.7214 |
DW(2) |
2.0725 |
H |
0.9385 |
|
Equation 17: Bridge of the Americas, Light Vehicles (millions)
ELBAC = f(MXREX, ELPPOP.1 + CJPOP.1, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977-2002
elbac = -0.01704 * mxrex + 0.00165 * elppop[-1] + cjpop[-1] - 2.44885 * dv911 + 6.78609
(2.12403)
(3.23975)
(4.05759)
(6.36514)
| Sum Sq |
10.9309 |
Std Err |
0.7049 |
LHS Mean |
7.1934 |
|
| R Sq |
0.4886 |
R Bar Sq |
0.4189 |
F
3, 22 |
7.0068 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.6757 |
DW(2) |
1.9535 |
|
|
|
Equation 18: Bridge of the Americas, Pedestrians (millions)
ELBAW = f(ELBAW.1, CJMQM, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977-2002
elbaw = 0.36724 * elbaw[-1] + 0.00047 * cjmqm + 0.33277 * dv911 + 0.30128
(2.33034)
(1.32460)
(3.45088)
(2.99741)
| Sum Sq |
0.3336 |
Std Err |
0.1179 |
LHS Mean |
0.5942 |
|
| R Sq |
0.5671 |
R Bar Sq |
0.513 |
F 3, 24 |
10.4817 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.5787 |
DW(2) |
1.6586 |
H |
0.9508 |
|
Equation 19: Paso del Norte Bridge, Light Vehicles (millions)
ELBPC = f(ELBPC.1, ELPPOP.1+CJPOP.1, MXREX, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002
elbpc = 0.50442 * elbpc[-1] + 0.00001 * elppop[-1] + cjpop[-1] + 0.00141 * mxrex - 0.48639 * dv911 + 2.14509
(3.00439)
(0.03346)
(0.30880)
(1.33118)
(2.55494)
| Sum Sq |
5.2607 |
Std Err |
0.4335 |
LHS Mean |
4.5782 |
|
| R Sq |
0.2961 |
R Bar Sq |
0.1955 |
F
4, 28 |
2.9441 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.7126 |
DW(2) |
2.4887 |
H |
2.6796 |
|
Equation 20: Paso del Norte Bridge, Pedestrians (millions)
ELBPW = f(ELBPW.1, CJMQM, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002
elbpw = 0.59209 * elbpw[-1] + 0.00113 * cjmqm + 1.35238 * dv911 + 1.79973
(4.29580)
(0.47648)
(2.15409)
(2.25472)
| Sum Sq |
13.9889 |
Std Err |
0.7635 |
LHS Mean |
4.9874 |
|
| R Sq |
0.5408 |
R Bar Sq |
0.4834 |
F 3, 24 |
9.4228 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.5463 |
DW(2) |
1.9588 |
H |
1.4861 |
|
Equation 21: Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Cargo Vehicles (millions)
ELBYT = f(ELBYT.1, CJMQM, MXREX, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002
elbyt = 0.89245 * elbyt[-1] + 0.00033 * cjmqm - 0.00046 * mxrex - 0.04697 * dv911 + 0.03436
(10.9453)
(2.39713)
(1.60623)
(2.17479)
(1.33619)
| Sum Sq |
0.018 |
Std Err |
0.0253 |
LHS Mean |
0.1041 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9691 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9646 |
F
4, 28 |
219.208 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.6956 |
DW(2) |
2.4523 |
H |
0.9429 |
|
Equation 22: Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Light Vehicles (millions)
ELBYC = f(ELBYC.1, CJPOP.1, DV911)
Nonlinear Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002
elbyc = 0.73020 * elbyc[-1] + 0.00109 * cjppop[-1] - 0.27012 * dv911 + 0.17834
(4.67118)
(2.31758)
(1.59233)
(1.39335)
| Sum Sq |
0.7507 |
Std Err |
0.1769 |
LHS Mean |
2.2453 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9585 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9533 |
F 3, 24 |
184.796 |
|
| DW(1) |
1.5615 |
DW(2) |
2.0065 |
H |
1.9514 |
|
MA_0 = 0.20841 * MA_1
(0.75853) |
|
|
|
|
|
Equation 23: Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Pedestrians (millions)
ELBYW = f(ELBYW.1, MXREX, CJMQM, DV911)
Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970-2002
elbyw = 0.82936 * elbyw[-1] + 0.00143 * mxrex + 0.00020 * cjmqm + 0.25096 * dv911 - 0.11255
(7.42629)
(2.26824)
(0.83996)
(5.25357)
(1.92377)
| Sum Sq |
0.0931 |
Std Err |
0.0577 |
LHS Mean |
0.2314 |
|
| R Sq |
0.9226 |
R Bar Sq |
0.9116 |
F
4, 28 |
83.464 |
|
| DW(1) |
2.07 |
DW(2) |
1.9894 |
H |
-1.0059 |
|
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