FIGURE 1  Series for Rural and Urban Arizona with Levels Estimated by a Bivariate Model,,,,,,,, ,ArizonaR,ArizonaU,Trend_ArizonaR,Trend_ArizonaU,,,, 1975-1,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.762053176,0.716126469,,,, 1975-2,1.945910149,0,1.75804212,0.713389169,,,, 1975-3,1.386294361,0,1.75138299,0.709714644,,,, 1975-4,1.609437912,1.098612289,1.750369651,0.709794123,,,, 1975-5,1.609437912,0,1.751060146,0.710634473,,,, 1975-6,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.755696849,0.714328185,,,, 1975-7,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.760142946,0.717454065,,,, 1975-8,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.764840049,0.720358164,,,, 1975-9,1.945910149,0.693147181,1.771384989,0.724114118,,,, 1975-10,0.693147181,0.693147181,1.774950116,0.726194192,,,, 1975-11,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.789499503,0.734474692,,,, 1975-12,1.945910149,0.693147181,1.802412535,0.741579579,,,, 1976-1,2.197224577,0,1.815468345,0.748897496 1976-2,1.945910149,1.386294361,1.824485641,0.754469668 1976-3,1.609437912,0.693147181,1.826657193,0.755545016 1976-4,2.397895273,1.098612289,1.830294166,0.757445683 1976-5,1.386294361,0,1.827300303,0.75545924 1976-6,2.079441542,1.098612289,1.83201563,0.7584837 1976-7,2.302585093,0,1.834165218,0.759643006 1976-8,1.609437912,1.098612289,1.835555184,0.761027181 1976-9,1.609437912,0.693147181,1.841983766,0.765095043 1976-10,1.098612289,0.693147181,1.850474893,0.770361123 1976-11,1.609437912,0.693147181,1.866150719,0.77972871 1976-12,2.079441542,0.693147181,1.884975124,0.791014609 1977-1,1.945910149,0,1.903513609,0.802316286 1977-2,1.386294361,0.693147181,1.92228871,0.814325623 1977-3,1.386294361,1.945910149,1.944912177,0.828526544 1977-4,2.197224577,1.386294361,1.968720826,0.842344994 1977-5,2.079441542,0.693147181,1.989219137,0.853964477 1977-6,1.945910149,1.609437912,2.008836581,0.865231481 1977-7,1.945910149,0,2.0281159,0.875527278 1977-8,2.890371758,1.386294361,2.05368066,0.890115748 1977-9,2.197224577,1.386294361,2.070927482,0.899730252 1977-10,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.083851849,0.906452658 1977-11,2.197224577,1.386294361,2.093981334,0.911420732 1977-12,2.48490665,1.098612289,2.100850095,0.914200506 1978-1,1.791759469,0.693147181,2.10410705,0.914873147 1978-2,1.791759469,0,2.109705982,0.916921489 1978-3,2.197224577,1.609437912,2.119489093,0.922058661 1978-4,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.124409796,0.92379277 1978-5,1.609437912,0.693147181,2.128356486,0.925332136 1978-6,2.397895273,0,2.139004996,0.930849752 1978-7,2.63905733,0.693147181,2.151670209,0.93821227 1978-8,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.161436904,0.94413797 1978-9,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.17519091,0.952318708 1978-10,2.48490665,0.693147181,2.187378795,0.959822248 1978-11,2.63905733,0.693147181,2.194848623,0.96489757 1978-12,2.48490665,1.386294361,2.197734507,0.967704484 1979-1,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.197302771,0.968361385 1979-2,2.197224577,0,2.195569466,0.968030275 1979-3,2.397895273,1.386294361,2.194370758,0.968779656 1979-4,1.791759469,1.386294361,2.187800756,0.966079793 1979-5,2.63905733,1.098612289,2.185882632,0.965771888 1979-6,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.177632891,0.96178268 1979-7,2.302585093,1.098612289,2.169404559,0.957926093 1979-8,2.63905733,1.098612289,2.161100206,0.953877725 1979-9,2.079441542,1.609437912,2.150092599,0.9483279 1979-10,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.136480253,0.940697279 1979-11,1.386294361,1.098612289,2.119657615,0.93146992 1979-12,2.564949357,1.098612289,2.1107673,0.926627128 1980-1,1.386294361,0.693147181,2.097468908,0.919240156 1980-2,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.091319838,0.91593814 1980-3,1.386294361,0.693147181,2.085050393,0.912323822 1980-4,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.086613339,0.913257424 1980-5,1.791759469,1.386294361,2.087613944,0.913857686 1980-6,2.48490665,1.098612289,2.090019863,0.914828393 1980-7,1.945910149,0.693147181,2.088669222,0.913402961 1980-8,2.397895273,1.098612289,2.091897904,0.914726836 1980-9,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.094343692,0.915595105 1980-10,1.386294361,1.791759469,2.095290572,0.915430424 1980-11,2.397895273,1.098612289,2.099365923,0.916235864 1980-12,2.397895273,0,2.098920846,0.914404438 1981-1,2.397895273,0,2.099966846,0.91431558 1981-2,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.09859569,0.913540639 1981-3,2.302585093,1.098612289,2.097182659,0.912495439 1981-4,2.397895273,1.386294361,2.091235141,0.908677873 1981-5,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.081284734,0.902330643 1981-6,2.079441542,1.386294361,2.070233255,0.895189169 1981-7,2.48490665,1.098612289,2.058917061,0.887343078 1981-8,2.564949357,0.693147181,2.043745184,0.877115352 1981-9,1.945910149,0,2.026571261,0.866073346 1981-10,1.609437912,1.098612289,2.01258451,0.857569274 1981-11,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.000411373,0.849860824 1981-12,1.791759469,0.693147181,1.989564096,0.84274647 1982-1,2.397895273,0.693147181,1.983335391,0.838453976 1982-2,1.386294361,0.693147181,1.970432483,0.830395248 1982-3,1.386294361,0.693147181,1.962015973,0.824901465 1982-4,1.791759469,0.693147181,1.959629167,0.822863314 1982-5,2.397895273,0,1.961195536,0.823313395 1982-6,2.197224577,0,1.960179172,0.823042924 1982-7,2.302585093,1.386294361,1.961041561,0.824443765 1982-8,2.197224577,1.098612289,1.957760732,0.822989118 1982-9,1.098612289,0,1.954155585,0.821255278 1982-10,2.197224577,1.098612289,1.962879862,0.827164348 1982-11,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.965646621,0.829468718 1982-12,2.079441542,1.386294361,1.969245877,0.83207139 1983-1,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.971149825,0.833316294 1983-2,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.971989824,0.833586712 1983-3,1.791759469,0.693147181,1.970970094,0.832492695 1983-4,2.63905733,1.386294361,1.971244954,0.83219635 1983-5,1.791759469,0.693147181,1.96289435,0.82670088 1983-6,1.609437912,0.693147181,1.956701326,0.822538571 1983-7,2.397895273,0.693147181,1.956830299,0.821930646 1983-8,2.197224577,0.693147181,1.954185379,0.819852539 1983-9,2.079441542,0.693147181,1.952667358,0.818670021 1983-10,1.945910149,0,1.949094321,0.81641622 1983-11,1.609437912,0.693147181,1.946457325,0.815405389 1983-12,1.791759469,1.098612289,1.948066132,0.816962095 1984-1,1.098612289,0.693147181,1.952193417,0.819774978 1984-2,1.386294361,0.693147181,1.964811368,0.827339138 1984-3,2.079441542,0,1.98183684,0.837421134 1984-4,2.079441542,0.693147181,1.999424024,0.8485097 1984-5,2.564949357,1.098612289,2.018081747,0.860487103 1984-6,2.302585093,1.098612289,2.02889131,0.867836048 1984-7,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.037225691,0.873468129 1984-8,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.049719092,0.881216555 1984-9,2.302585093,1.791759469,2.062304271,0.889332667 1984-10,2.397895273,0,2.06765327,0.892546817 1984-11,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.070215579,0.894976706 1984-12,1.945910149,1.098612289,2.070479107,0.896361944 1985-1,1.386294361,0.693147181,2.073174723,0.899025414 1985-2,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.08265274,0.905549362 1985-3,2.079441542,0,2.088502628,0.910138638 1985-4,2.079441542,1.386294361,2.096465665,0.916672291 1985-5,2.302585093,1.609437912,2.104343939,0.922888349 1985-6,2.833213344,0,2.106896759,0.925496491 1985-7,2.63905733,1.386294361,2.105831186,0.92677358 1985-8,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.098699737,0.92420427 1985-9,1.609437912,1.386294361,2.098183841,0.925351317 1985-10,1.791759469,0.693147181,2.100829182,0.927840572 1985-11,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.105924778,0.93190716 1985-12,2.079441542,1.386294361,2.109287721,0.93528056 1986-1,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.113020983,0.938550502 1986-2,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.114420367,0.940585851 1986-3,1.945910149,1.098612289,2.111197549,0.939797402 1986-4,1.945910149,1.098612289,2.107994751,0.938823968 1986-5,1.945910149,1.386294361,2.107600469,0.939436924 1986-6,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.107094777,0.939589546 1986-7,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.111456416,0.942221221 1986-8,2.772588722,1.098612289,2.117759094,0.946143142 1986-9,1.609437912,1.386294361,2.119205014,0.947344823 1986-10,2.197224577,1.386294361,2.124146378,0.950096365 1986-11,2.63905733,0,2.124455678,0.949842478 1986-12,2.302585093,1.098612289,2.121853701,0.948865034 1987-1,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.11821121,0.947258323 1987-2,1.386294361,1.791759469,2.110823712,0.943269757 1987-3,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.105948304,0.939857707 1987-4,2.63905733,0,2.428423045,0.93726749 1987-5,2.564949357,1.098612289,2.427761918,0.937013187 1987-6,2.564949357,0.693147181,2.42445834,0.93512809 1987-7,2.48490665,1.386294361,2.422035478,0.933835469 1987-8,2.890371758,0.693147181,2.419223363,0.931897295 1987-9,2.63905733,1.386294361,2.415213973,0.929646493 1987-10,2.302585093,1.609437912,2.405821402,0.92393329 1987-11,2.564949357,1.098612289,2.392988965,0.915663676 1987-12,2.48490665,1.098612289,2.377154453,0.905611151 1988-1,1.791759469,0,2.360995493,0.895293831 1988-2,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.352766022,0.890096144 1988-3,2.397895273,1.098612289,2.342590098,0.883535516 1988-4,2.302585093,0,2.329575259,0.875130941 1988-5,1.609437912,0.693147181,2.321589527,0.870483555 1988-6,2.48490665,0,2.322423236,0.870957308 1988-7,2.772588722,0,2.32620936,0.873749231 1988-8,2.890371758,1.386294361,2.329924404,0.877255067 1988-9,2.302585093,1.098612289,2.328592278,0.877616137 1988-10,1.791759469,1.386294361,2.325753601,0.876906153 1988-11,2.708050201,1.386294361,2.325303835,0.877076698 1988-12,2.302585093,1.386294361,2.318108112,0.873067036 1989-1,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.310879596,0.868671687 1989-2,1.791759469,0,2.30216887,0.86345883 1989-3,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.29975584,0.862476612 1989-4,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.295416934,0.860506414 1989-5,2.302585093,1.386294361,2.2919233,0.859308958 1989-6,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.285950201,0.856247211 1989-7,2.48490665,0,2.280907795,0.853735855 1989-8,2.302585093,1.386294361,2.278631711,0.853517368 1989-9,2.197224577,0,2.277665227,0.853710305 1989-10,2.708050201,0.693147181,2.279837354,0.856402842 1989-11,1.609437912,1.386294361,2.275337419,0.855475481 1989-12,2.564949357,0.693147181,2.276608739,0.857392833 1990-1,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.276712938,0.858889144 1990-2,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.273743185,0.858663475 1990-3,1.791759469,0.693147181,2.269266756,0.857655267 1990-4,2.63905733,1.791759469,2.269761818,0.859536327 1990-5,2.63905733,1.098612289,2.26381323,0.857109539 1990-6,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.252065661,0.851204475 1990-7,2.564949357,0,2.240822998,0.845605702 1990-8,1.945910149,1.098612289,2.230873367,0.841463456 1990-9,2.079441542,0,2.226967996,0.840642422 1990-10,2.197224577,1.386294361,2.226958607,0.842735576 1990-11,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.223153526,0.842198416 1990-12,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.217545939,0.840848912 1991-1,2.302585093,1.098612289,2.212007095,0.839759132 1991-2,1.791759469,0.693147181,2.202185088,0.835888964 1991-3,2.302585093,0,2.194783065,0.83342574 1991-4,2.197224577,1.386294361,2.187805413,0.831888243 1991-5,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.180110462,0.829601722 1991-6,2.708050201,0,2.171056719,0.82667208 1991-7,2.708050201,1.098612289,2.160291917,0.823396789 1991-8,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.143971136,0.816726093 1991-9,1.791759469,0.693147181,2.13104555,0.812224702 1991-10,1.609437912,0,2.121639814,0.809783588 1991-11,2.397895273,1.386294361,2.119260342,0.812006854 1991-12,1.945910149,1.098612289,2.111143953,0.810559841 1992-1,1.945910149,0.693147181,2.105629508,0.810410278 1992-2,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.100235556,0.810293283 1992-3,2.302585093,0,2.091070935,0.808076618 1992-4,1.609437912,1.098612289,2.080990644,0.806008998 1992-5,1.791759469,0.693147181,2.076943277,0.807224113 1992-6,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.076351232,0.810485365 1992-7,1.386294361,1.098612289,2.074906855,0.812891979 1992-8,2.944438979,0,2.082720067,0.820230277 1992-9,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.086803566,0.826348353 1992-10,1.945910149,0.693147181,2.087551197,0.830320283 1992-11,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.088375583,0.834447042 1992-12,2.302585093,0.693147181,2.088069366,0.837771785 1993-1,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.087410021,0.841116103 1993-2,1.098612289,1.386294361,2.087112334,0.844295145 1993-3,2.397895273,1.386294361,2.093636074,0.850748611 1993-4,2.197224577,1.098612289,2.093140045,0.852720086 1993-5,2.079441542,1.098612289,2.091935257,0.854221942 1993-6,2.397895273,0,2.089578675,0.85485819 1993-7,2.48490665,1.791759469,2.088362818,0.856778738 1993-8,1.945910149,1.386294361,2.080957291,0.854360031 1993-9,1.945910149,0,2.076774574,0.85343017 1993-10,1.386294361,0,2.07633517,0.855339962 1993-11,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.085227604,0.863252162 1993-12,2.48490665,0.693147181,2.096514533,0.872371757 1994-1,1.791759469,1.386294361,2.105488046,0.880438558 1994-2,2.564949357,0.693147181,2.114118031,0.887722178 1994-3,1.945910149,0.693147181,2.115014178,0.890744744 1994-4,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.117299841,0.89467025 1994-5,2.079441542,0.693147181,2.12082859,0.899622778 1994-6,2.63905733,1.098612289,2.12522707,0.905248627 1994-7,1.791759469,1.098612289,2.124404539,0.907645678 1994-8,2.197224577,1.386294361,2.128915241,0.91285029 1994-9,2.397895273,0.693147181,2.134423045,0.918343275 1994-10,2.197224577,0.693147181,2.136603838,0.922137869 1994-11,1.386294361,0,2.136772598,0.924993536 1994-12,1.791759469,1.386294361,2.149135262,0.935604077 1995-1,1.945910149,0.693147181,2.165804077,0.948326364 1995-2,2.079441542,0.693147181,2.183828457,0.961899018 1995-3,2.564949357,1.386294361,2.20106434,0.97518518 1995-4,1.945910149,1.609437912,2.2110263,0.983957081 1995-5,1.945910149,1.098612289,2.223305008,0.993624129 1995-6,2.302585093,1.386294361,2.238131905,1.004631837 1995-7,2.564949357,1.386294361,2.252436875,1.014887592 1995-8,2.772588722,1.609437912,2.26365465,1.02305165 1995-9,2.302585093,1.386294361,2.270156835,1.028188697 1995-10,2.302585093,1.791759469,2.273941284,1.031451051 1995-11,1.945910149,1.609437912,2.272423778,1.03104251