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2000 Progress Report: Assessing Life-Shortening Associated with Exposure to Particulate Matter
EPA Grant Number: R827353C005Subproject: this is subproject number 005 , established and managed by the Center Director under grant R827353
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
Center: EPA Harvard Center for Ambient Particle Health Effects
Center Director: Koutrakis, Petros
Title: Assessing Life-Shortening Associated with Exposure to Particulate Matter
Investigators: Schwartz, Joel
Current Investigators: Schwartz, Joel , Bateson, T. , Coull, Brent , O’Neill, M. , Zanobetti, Antonella
Institution: Harvard University
EPA Project Officer: Stacey Katz/Gail Robarge,
Project Period: June 1, 1999 through May 31, 2005 (Extended to May 31, 2006)
Project Period Covered by this Report: June 1, 2000 through May 31, 2001
Project Amount: Refer to main center abstract for funding details.
RFA: Airborne Particulate Matter (PM) Centers (1999)
Research Category: Particulate Matter
Description:
Objective:This project is one of four projects under Theme II: Identifying Populations Susceptible to the Health Effects of Particulate Air Pollution of our proposal. The main objective of this project is to examine whether particles advance mortality by a few days (harvesting) or have a more profound impact on public health. Progress Summary:
During the past 2 years, we have published several papers on harvesting. The first two used a smoothing approach to examine the association of PM over time with daily deaths in Boston (Schwartz, 2000) and Chicago (Schwartz, 2001). Hospital admissions also were examined in the second paper. The main conclusions of our analyses is that particle effects on mortality and morbidity become stronger as average time increases. We then developed a new methodology, using smoothed distributed lag models, and applied it to data on air pollution and daily deaths in Milan, Italy (Zanobetti, et al., 2000). This paper confirmed that far from reduced effects, "harvesting resistent" estimates provide estimated effect sizes that are twice as great. Currently, we are extending the long distributed lag approach to examining the harvesting effect in 10 cities in Europe.
In a related matter, we also have clarified that control for influenza and other respiratory epidemics does not change the effect size estimates for PM effects on daily deaths (Braga, et al., 2000).
Another key issue in assessing the life-shortening effects of PM exposure is the question of dose-response. If there are thresholds for the effects of particles on deaths or hospital admissions then estimates of the public health effect will be overstated. To examine this issue, we first developed a new methodology that allows the combination of smoothed dose-response curves from multiple locations. We demonstrated its effectiveness using simulation studies, and applied it to an analysis of PM10 and daily deaths in 10 U.S. cities. There was no deviation from linearity down to the lowest exposure concentrations observed (Schwartz and Zanobetti, 2000). We then extended the methodology to incorporate heterogeneity in response across cities, developing a smoothed estimate that allowed the heterogeneity to vary by exposure level. This new methodology was then applied to 8 cities in Spain, representing the first assessment of dose-response in Europe, where diesel particles are a substantially larger fraction of the total particle mix (Schwartz, et al., in press). In addition, we extended the methodology to two pollutant models, and also examined the sensitivity of the shape of the dose-response curve to the way season and weather was controlled. We found a significant linear association between daily deaths and black smoke. The association was little changed by variations in control for weather, season, or SO2. In contrast, for SO2, the association was implausible (inverted U shape) and disappeared with control for black smoke. Subsequently, we further expanded the methodology to include random slopes, which allow assessment of predictors of heterogeneity in nonlinear dose-response curves, using hierarchical models. We have applied this to examining the dose-response between PM10 and hospital admissions for heart and lung disease.
Finally, we have made important progress in assessing the effect of confounding by co-pollutants on the relation between particles and morbidity and mortality. We have developed a new approach to assessing confounding in a hierarchical model, and applied it to examining the association between PM10 and daily deaths (Schwartz, 2000). This approach showed that associations were not confounded by gaseous air pollutants. The methodology was then applied to a year and season specific analysis of data from Philadelphia to confirm that the association was with particles, and not SO2, and to demonstrate that it was predominantly associated with the finer particles (Schwartz, 2000).
Future Activities:We will continue efforts to extend the long distributed lag approach to examining the harvesting effect in 10 cities in Europe. The results of a recently completed paper (Zanobetti, et al., in review) will be presented this fall at the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology (ISEE) meeting. We also will complete a manuscript that reports the findings of our dose-response study.
Journal Articles on this Report: 5 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other subproject views: | All 22 publications | 22 publications in selected types | All 22 journal articles |
| Other center views: | All 149 publications | 149 publications in selected types | All 148 journal articles |
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Braga ALF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J. Do respiratory epidemics confound the association between air pollution and daily deaths? European Respiratory Journal 2000;16(4):723-728. |
R827353 (Final) R827353C005 (2000) R827353C005 (2002) R827353C005 (2003) R827353C005 (Final) |
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Schwartz J. Daily deaths are associated with combustion particles rather than SO2 in Philadelphia. Occupational and Environmental Medicine 2000;57(10):692-697. |
R827353 (Final) R827353C005 (2000) R827353C005 (2001) R827353C005 (Final) |
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Schwartz J. Harvesting and long term exposure effects in the relation between air pollution and mortality. American Journal of Epidemiology 2000;151(5):440-448. |
R827353 (Final) R827353C005 (2000) R827353C005 (Final) |
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Schwartz J, Zanobetti A. Using meta-smoothing to estimate dose-response trends across multiple studies, with application to air pollution and daily death. Epidemiology 2000;11(6):666-672. |
R827353 (Final) R827353C005 (2000) R827353C005 (2002) R827353C005 (2003) R827353C005 (Final) |
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Schwartz J, Ballester F, Saez M, Perez-Hoyos S, Bellido J, Cambra K, Arribas F, Canada A, Perez-Boillos MJ, Sunyer J. The concentration-response relation between air pollution and daily deaths. Environmental Health Perspectives 2001;109(10):1001-1006. |
R827353 (Final) R827353C005 (2000) R827353C005 (2002) R827353C005 (2003) R827353C005 (Final) |
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particulate matter, PM2.5, PM10, air pollutants, particulates, health effects, exposure, ambient particles, susceptibility, metals, public policy, biology, engineering, epidemiology, toxicology, environmental chemistry, monitoring. , Air, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, Health, RFA, Susceptibility/Sensitive Population/Genetic Susceptibility, Molecular Biology/Genetics, Toxicology, Biology, Risk Assessments, genetic susceptability, Microbiology, Epidemiology, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Microbiology, particulate matter, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Monitoring, State, ambient measurement methods, risk assessment, ambient air quality, cardiovascular disease, elderly, indoor air quality, inhalation, developmental effects, epidemelogy, lung cancer, respiratory disease, inhalation toxicology, pre-existing conditions, air quality, cardiopulmonary response, indoor exposure, molecular epidemiology, cardiopulmonary responses, human health risk, interindividual variability, genetic susceptibility, particle exposure, toxics, mortality studies, human health effects, particulates, respiratory, sensitive populations, ambient particle health effects, air pollution, children, Utah (UT), Connecticut (CT), ambient air monitoring, chemical exposure, dosimetry, exposure, inhaled particles, pulmonary, Illinois (IL), human susceptibility, biological mechanism , health risks, human exposure, Human Health Risk Assessment, pulmonary disease, Massachusetts (MA)
Relevant Websites:
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/epacenter/homeframe.htm
Progress and Final Reports:
1999 Progress Report
Original Abstract
2001 Progress Report
2002 Progress Report
2003 Progress Report
Final Report
Main Center Abstract and Reports:
R827353 EPA Harvard Center for Ambient Particle Health Effects
Subprojects under this Center:
(EPA does not fund or establish subprojects; EPA awards and manages the overall grant for this center).
R827353C001 Assessing Human Exposures to Particulate and Gaseous Air Pollutants
R827353C002 Quantifying Exposure Error and its Effect on Epidemiological
Studies
R827353C003 St. Louis Bus, Steubenville and Atlanta Studies
R827353C004 Examining Conditions That Predispose Towards
Acute Adverse Effects of Particulate Exposures
R827353C005 Assessing Life-Shortening Associated with Exposure to
Particulate Matter
R827353C006 Investigating Chronic Effects of Exposure to Particulate
Matter
R827353C007 Determining the Effects of Particle Characteristics on Respiratory Health of Children
R827353C008 Differentiating the Roles of Particle Size, Particle Composition,
and Gaseous Co-Pollutants on Cardiac Ischemia
R827353C009 Assessing Deposition of Ambient Particles in the Lung
R827353C010 Relating Changes in Blood Viscosity, Other Clotting Parameters,
Heart Rate, and Heart Rate Variability to Particulate and Criteria Gas Exposures
R827353C011 Studies of Oxidant Mechanisms
R827353C012 Modeling Relationships Between Mobile Source Particle Emissions and Population Exposures
R827353C013 Toxicological Evaluation of Realistic Emissions of Source Aerosols (TERESA) Study
R827353C014 Identifying the Physical and Chemical Properties of Particulate Matter Responsible for the Observed Adverse Health Effects
R827353C015 Research Coordination Core
R827353C016 Analytical and Facilities Core
R827353C017 Technology Development and Transfer Core