Small Area Income & Poverty EstimatesModel-based Estimates for States, Counties, & School Districts |
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SAIPE is the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program of the U.S. Census Bureau. We produce model-based estimates annually of income and poverty for states, counties, and school districts. We do not produce projections or estimates for other geographic units such as towns, cities, or metro areas. The following estimates are produced:
States and Counties:
School districts:
For more information, please see our Overview.
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Poverty status is defined by family; either everyone in the family is in poverty or no one in the family is in poverty. The characteristics of the family used to determine poverty status are: number of people, number of related children under 18, and whether the primary householder is over age 65. An income threshold is determined given a particular family's set of characteristics; if that family's income is below that threshold, the family is in poverty. For more information, please see Poverty.
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Yes. In their final report, the National Academy of Sciences Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas (2000) recommended that the Census Bureau investigate using estimates from the ACS in models for small area income and poverty estimates. Full implementation of the ACS began in January 2005, and the SAIPE program incorporated those data into the 2005 estimates. All prior years of estimates were created using data from the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS).
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A confidence interval is a range of values that, with some level of certainty, contains the true value the estimate is approximating. For example, each state and county estimate is listed with a 90-percent confidence interval. This means that for a particular estimate, if we carried out our estimation procedure and created a confidence interval 100 times, the actual value that the estimate is approximating is in that interval approximately 90 out of the 100 times. For more details about confidence intervals, please check a basic explanation of confidence intervals. For information on confidence intervals of the difference between two estimates, please check the general cautions page.
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We see two ways to improve the statistical precision of the income and poverty estimates. First, by improving the models, and second, by improving the input data. We continue to explore and assess the utility of alternate model formulations and statistical approaches. The current estimation methods use administrative record sources uniformly available for the entire nation. If access to administrative record data at both the federal and state levels were expanded, we could add new variables, especially from state and local record systems, which would improve the accuracy of the model-based estimates. We welcome suggestions. Send your suggestions via email to hhes.saipe@census.gov.
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Estimates are made using survey and administrative data that are not available until well after the year to which they refer. For example, the SAIPE program's 2004 estimates utilized federal tax return data for 2004, which were filed in 2005, and were available to our program in 2006. Recently, improvements in acquisition and processing of some of the inputs allowed for an earlier delivery.
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Prior to release of income year 1998 data, county data were produced every two years, for odd-numbered years. The Improving America's Schools Act of 1994 required estimates of poverty for school districts every two years. Both state and county-level estimates are produced as the building blocks for these estimates. We began producing county estimates for even-numbered years in 1998 to meet the demand for more current county-level estimates. State-level estimates have been produced annually since 1995 to meet requirements of The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. School district estimates are also produced annually as required by the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001.
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Challenges to state, county, or school district estimates from the SAIPE program must be submitted to Chief, Data Integration Division:
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For assistance, please contact the Demographic Call Center Staff at 301-763-2422 or 1-866-758-1060 (toll free) or visit ask.census.gov for further information.
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