The Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting
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Research, Partnership, and Events

Research Areas

  • Impact Of Climate Variability and Change On Transportation - Research to examine the effects that climate change and variability may have on transportation infrastructure and services, and to identify potential adaptation strategies for use by transportation decision-makers, operators, state and local planners, and infrastructure builders. Studies on specific aspects of this issue are undertaken as part of a multi-year program, based in part upon the results of an October 2002 workshop (see project listing below).
  • Increasing energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions - Research to reduce energy usage covering mitigation of transportation's environmental impacts both through conservation and through the application of new technology.
  • Modeling - Research to develop and improve analytical tools for transportation energy use to support decision making throughout the government and in the private sector.
  • Institutional Capacity Building - Research to analyze the prevailing institutional frameworks that support or constrain the implementation of GHG emission reduction strategies.

Research Projects

Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation

Ongoing Projects

  • The Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study. The DOT Center is partnering with the U.S. Geological Survey to undertake a multi-year research program to study how short and long-term changes in climate could affect transportation systems in the U.S. central Gulf Coast region, and how transportation decision-makers could address possible impacts. This study is one of the CCSP's twenty-one synthesis and assessment products. View the Final Report..
  • Effects of Sea Level Rise on National Transportation Infrastructure. The study uses multiple data sources to quantify the potential impact of sea level rise on land and transportation infrastructure in coastal areas of the eastern United States. The study will provide several relevant pieces of information imperative to the security of our infrastructure, including: (1) digital elevation models (DEMs) to describe the elevation in the coastal areas and create tidal surfaces to describe the current sea water levels; (2) identify land and transportation infrastructure that, without protection, will be inundated regularly by the ocean or be at risk of periodic inundation due to storm surge; and (3) provide statistics to demonstrate the potential extent of inundated and at-risk land surge at given temporal intervals. Research conducted by ICF Consulting. This project is also listed below in the "Modeling" research area. View Online Report
  • Transportation and Climate Change Study. The Center is partnering with the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies to conduct a study to examine strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as transportation policy options for adapting to the potential impacts of climate change. The study will include as a centerpiece a major conference with commissioned papers that is designed to foster and expand dialogue and awareness about the potential risks and consequences of climate change. A committee of experts assembled for this effort will issue a report with findings and recommendations regarding needed research and actions to prepare for climate change. This project is also listed below in the "Increasing Energy Efficiency and Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions" research area.
  • Workshop on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Hydraulics and Hydrology and Transportation. The Center is partnering with the Center for Transportation and the Environment at the North Carolina State University to develop guidelines for practitioners dealing with the consequences of climate change. The purpose of this initiative is to provide these planning and engineering professionals with the information they need to make informed decisions on how to respond to the potential impacts of climate change related to hydrologic impacts. CTE will conduct two workshops to define and develop the guidance. The final results will be presented at a nationally televised videoconference as well as submitted for publication as a special edition of a technical journal. View the workshop website.

Completed Projects

  • The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Workshop. DOT's Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the US Global Change Research Program co-sponsored this workshop on October 1-2, 2002 to discuss the potential impacts of climate change on transportation systems and services. The DOT Center is undertaking a multi-year research program to study how short and long-term changes in climate could affect transportation, and how transportation decision-makers could address possible impacts. The workshop brought together 64 transportation and planning professionals and experts in climate change and assessment to explore these issues and provide input on the research questions that should be given top priority for investigation by the Center. View workshop summary and discussion papers.

Increasing Energy Efficiency and Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Ongoing Projects

  • Transportation and Climate Change Study. The Center is partnering with the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies to conduct a study to examine strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as transportation policy options for adapting to the potential impacts of climate change. The study will include as a centerpiece a major conference with commissioned papers that is designed to foster and expand dialogue and awareness about the potential risks and consequences of climate change. A committee of experts assembled for this effort will issue a report with findings and recommendations regarding needed research and actions to prepare for climate change. This project is also listed above in the "Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation" research area.
  • Reducing the GHG & Air Quality Impacts of Freight Transportation. This project focuses on the identification of measures to lower GHG emissions from freight by analyzing the rail and marine replacement of truck freight. The analysis will provide information regarding freight contributions to GHG emissions and, given the projected growth in freight movement, will be valuable to state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in implementing strategies to reduce freight-related GHG emissions. Research conducted by the Center for Clean Air Policy.
  • Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Benefits of Heavy Duty Natural Gas Vehicles in the U.S. This project seeks to improve the understanding of the GHG emissions reduction potential of heavy-duty natural gas and diesel vehicles. This will be achieved by evaluating years of carbon dioxide as well as other transportation-related GHG emissions data, including methane and nitrous oxide, from a previously untapped data source at West Virginia University's National Research Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines and Emissions. Currently, the widely used accounting protocols do not give accurate estimates of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions in determining the emissions benefits of heavy-duty vehicles and engine technologies. The results of this research will be summarized in a report, which will include a discussion of heavy-duty natural gas vehicles and engine technologies that may have a lower GHG impact than conventional diesel engines. Research conducted by Science Applications International Corporation.
  • Multi-Partner Cooperative Research Agreement for Greenhouse Gas and Other Emission Reductions Aboard a Large Container Vessel. This project funds a literature search and technology assessment and the physical survey of a container vessel in order to install and test various emission reduction systems aboard a vessel, that were previously installed in shore-side power plants. Phase II, consisting of the installation and testing of the systems, and Phase III, including the calculation of the resulting air emissions reductions, would be funded by other partners in this project.

Completed Projects

  • Integrating Transportation, Energy Efficiency, and GHG Reduction Policies: A Guidebook for State and Local Policy Makers. This project presents a unique opportunity to work with EPA to develop a guidebook that evaluates the emission impacts of transportation policy measures. The project complements EPA's focus on demand-side measures with an additional section on quantification and evaluation of vehicle technologies and fuel policies. The guidebook is a resource for state DOTs and MPOs in establishing GHG inventories and deciding among various mitigation strategies. Research conducted by the Center for Clean Air Policy. View guidebook at: *http:www.ccap.org/guidebookAccess/login.php (Login required)
  • Assessing State Long-Range Transportation Planning Initiatives in the Northeast for Climate Energy Efficiency Benefits. This project identifies tools and methodologies to help the Northeastern states develop and implement strategies to reduce GHG emissions through the statewide, long-range transportation planning process. This research will raise the awareness among state transportation planners for correlating long-range plans with statewide GHG emissions. It will also provide best practices and methods by which states can integrate GHG-reduction/mitigation goals in their long-range plans. Research conducted by The BBG Group. View the final report: Assessing State Long-Range Transportation Planning Initiatives in the Northeast for Climate Energy Efficiency Benefits.
  • Estimating Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Use in New York State. This project, done in partnership with the New York State Department of Transportation, studies the development and the implementation of the New York State Energy Plan (SEP), focusing on the transportation-related components of the SEP. Research conducted by ICF Consulting. View online report.
  • Transportation Emissions Charges: Analysis of Costs to Achieve Emissions Reductions. Phase I of this project funds a literature search for cost-benefit analysis reports on charging systems to reduce emissions in any transportation mode. The information allows DOT to respond to advocates of fees and charges and supports the Administration's voluntary approach to emission reductions.
  • Greenhouse Gas Reduction Through State and Local Transportation Planning. This project evaluates how and why states, metropolitan planning organizations, cities, and transportation providers are pursuing GHG emission reductions, with a focus on transportation planning. The research improves understanding of how states and localities might contribute to GHG reduction through transportation decisions. Research conducted by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. View the final report: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Through State and Local Transportation Planning
  • Fuel Options for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles. This project reviews several alternatives to current transportation fuels. Fuels included in the analysis include gasoline, ethanol, methanol, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, reformulated diesel, biodiesel, electricity, and hydrogen. Each fuel is under consideration as part of an overall vehicle/fuel system, and is characterized both in near and longer-terms based on economics, expected fuel-cycle emissions and energy consumption. Research conducted by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. View the final report: Fuel Options for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Motor Vehicles
  • Highway/Transit/Ferry Integration. This project evaluates the potential greenhouse gas benefits achievable through better integration of passenger ferries with land transportation systems, considering ferry technology and fueling options. The San Francisco Bay Area is analyzed as a point of reference and as a potential basis for consideration of other areas where passenger ferries might be effective. Research conducted by CALSTART. View the final report: Passenger Ferries, Air Quality, and Greenhouse Gases: Can System Expansion Result in Fewer Emissions in the San Francisco Bay Area?

Modeling

Ongoing Projects

  • Effects of Sea Level Rise on National Transportation Infrastructure. The study uses multiple data sources to quantify the potential impact of sea level rise on land and transportation infrastructure in coastal areas of the eastern United States. The study will provide several relevant pieces of information imperative to the security of our infrastructure, including: (1) digital elevation models (DEMs) to describe the elevation in the coastal areas and create tidal surfaces to describe the current sea water levels; (2) identify land and transportation infrastructure that, without protection, will be inundated regularly by the ocean or be at risk of periodic inundation due to storm surge; and (3) provide statistics to demonstrate the potential extent of inundated and at-risk land surge at given temporal intervals. Research conducted by ICF Consulting. This project is also listed above in the "Impact of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation" research area.
  • Emissions Analysis of Freight Transport Comparing Land-Side and Water-Side Short-Sea Routes: Development and Demonstration of a Decision Modeling Tool. This study is aimed at developing a methodology and tools to effectively compare emissions from land-side and water-side freight transport alternatives. The research team will develop and demonstrate a model that analyzes total fuel-cycle GHG and other emissions associated with transporting freight along land-side and water-side routes. The project will also evaluate tradeoffs among pollutants, costs, and travel time for moving freight between two points and will identify optimal modal combinations within a network of travel paths that would lead to minimizing emissions, costs, and/or travel time. Research conducted by the University of Delaware, College of Marine Studies. View Online Report.
  • Holistic Comparative Analysis of Emissions from Aviation, Automobile, Marine, and Diesel Transports. This project compares emissions datasets from aviation, heavy-duty diesel, automobile and marine vehicles and analyzes the similarities and differences across the transportation modes. The final report will focus on how the analyzed data can be added to existing emission inventories for the respective transportation modes and used in quantifying contributions to local and regional air quality and global climate change. The research will help inform decision makers on which environmental impact mitigation strategies offer the biggest impact in the most cost effective manner across all modes in the transportation sector. Research conducted by Aerodyne Research, Inc.
  • Total Fuel Cycle Emissions for Marine Transportation: Development of a "Well-to-Hull" Modeling Tool. This project will develop a "well-to-hull" modeling tool to estimate total fuel cycle emissions from marine transportation and will lay the groundwork for future research. The research will provide equivalent modal comparison information that may support short sea shipping initiatives and ferry use as alternatives to surface transportation. Research conducted by the Rochester Institute of Technology.
  • Feasibility of Utilizing the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) as a Broad Integrating Framework for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Modeling in the Transportation Sector. This project will investigate the feasibility of integrating NEMS with other transportation models to enhance the analytical capabilities beyond those which any individual model can offer. An integrated framework of models will enable a more comprehensive approach to transportation sector modeling. Combining an existing travel demand model with a broadened NEMS to develop a framework for a multi-modal approach to study/develop transportation emission policy analysis will help transportation planners and others in the transportation community to measure the economic benefits, such as GDP and national income, associated with various transportation policies. Research conducted by Science Applications International Corporation.
  • Measuring the Greenhouse Gas Intensity of the Transportation Sector. This project will explore two measurement approaches for GHG emissions from transportation: (1) transportation emissions per unit of GDP or transportation GDP and (2) intensity per passenger-mile or ton-mile. In both cases, the project considers transportation as a sector, by mode, and by its passenger and freight components.
  • Characterization of Power Plant Emissions and Fuel Quality and Consumption Rates of the U.S. Waterborne Fleet. This project creates a comprehensive database organized on a per-vessel basis and provides the ability to sort according to various emissions parameters. It will assist in the analysis of factors contributing to emissions generation, primary locations of emission sources, types of vessels, and prevalent propulsion equipment and fuel types. Research conducted by the University of Delaware.

Completed Projects

  • Stock Modeling for Selected Transportation Equipment. This project improves the modeling of stock turnover by compiling transportation equipment retirements and annual use data. This data serves as the basis for developing stock turnover algorithms that could be incorporated into current or future energy and emissions models. The project focuses on commercial aircraft, marine vessels, and locomotives. Research conducted by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. View the final report: Stock Modeling for Railroad Locomotives and Marine Vessels.
  • Alternative and Advanced Fuel and Vehicle Technology Modeling. This project simplifies and improves existing models characterizing advanced technology vehicles, allowing DOT to better understand the effects of policies. By providing information on consumer purchasing behavior and characterization of advanced technology vehicles, this project will help further refine models of GHG reduction policies that promote consumer purchase and use of alternative or advanced vehicles. Research conducted by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center. View the final report: Modeling of Advanced Technology Vehicles.
  • Transportation Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Data and Modeling. This project evaluates data and models of transportation greenhouse gas emissions and the prospects for their improvement. Specifically, the data and models are evaluated for their ability to inform policy makers and others seeking to answer policy questions. It also assesses the potential for the assemblage of available transportation models into comprehensive tools to determine the effect of new transportation policies or market changes on GHG emissions.

Institutional Capacity Building

New research area -- no projects funded yet.