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Environmental Covariability, Demographic Connectivity, and the Dynamics of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus Spp.) Populations
EPA Grant Number: U915719Title: Environmental Covariability, Demographic Connectivity, and the Dynamics of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus Spp.) Populations
Investigators: Regetz, James
Institution: Princeton University
EPA Project Officer: McClure, Karen
Project Period: August 1, 2000 through August 1, 2003
Project Amount: $102,000
RFA: STAR Graduate Fellowships (2000)
Research Category: Academic Fellowships , Fellowship - Ecology and Ecosystems , Ecological Indicators/Assessment/Restoration
Description:
Objective:The objectives of this research are to: (1) develop empirical models and statistical approaches to quantify dispersal and shared environmental forcing among spawning populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.); and (2) derive general rules for how the relative contribution of different sources of covariation will affect persistence of populations under alternative patterns of local management and restoration.
Approach:Because direct observation of salmon movement between spawning areas is impractical, indirect inference from genetic data is a preferable approach. A new likelihood framework based on coalescent theory will be used to estimate gene flow among spawner populations. A population simulation model is being developed to test and refine this likelihood method. The method then will be used to estimate straying in chinook (O. tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) populations of the Grande Ronde River basin, OR, and of a coastal river system. These results will be used to parameterize straying propensity as a function of hydrographic variables, creating a simple model that can be extended to other basins. Environmental covariability then will be addressed by statistically assessing the relationships between subpopulation demographic data and relevant stream, watershed, and climate attributes. Guided by these analyses, probability densities will be generated for local vital rates, conditional on environmental variables. Finally, these empirical estimates of specific sources of covariation will be integrated into a spatially explicit population viability model to predict whether the spatial distribution of management efforts affects population persistence. For example, under what conditions will small but diffuse restoration projects be more effective than a single large project that targets a cluster of subpopulations? A corollary study will assess the ability of simple, analytic models to generate qualitatively similar predictions.
Expected Results:This research is expected to result in the development of a tool to predict how the effects of local management actions are likely to perpetuate through the aggregate population of Pacific salmon over time.
Supplemental Keywords:population biology, genetics, modeling, Bayesian statistics, aquatic habitat, hydrology, watersheds, river, restoration, conservation, animal, salmon, trout, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Pacific Northwest, EPA Region 10, WA, OR, ID. , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, RFA, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, exploratory research environmental biology, Ecology, Aquatic Ecosystems & Estuarine Research, Applied Math & Statistics, Ecological Risk Assessment, Aquatic Ecosystem, Pacific Northwest, Ecological Indicators, Ecological Effects - Human Health, EPA Region, Chemical Mixtures - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, Ecology and Ecosystems, State, demographic, fish communities, Pacific salmon, steelhead salmon, Washington (WA), chinook salmon, fish , conservation, watersheds, Oregon, ecological exposure, population simulation model, aquatic habitat, genes, Region 10, Idaho (ID), population, modeling, Grande Ronde River Basin, environmental covariability