Performance was not met, because:
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) is currently not meeting the FY 2005 target for tornado false alarm ratio. There is a strong statistical relationship between accuracy and FAR using current technology and operational methodology. A higher rate of accuracy results in a higher FAR. National Emergency Manager and media surveys have indicated that higher FAR is “tolerable” if it results in longer lead times and increased accuracy.
Strategies for Improvement:
Training: Enhanced Mesocyclone and Tornado Vortex Signature Algorithms delivered during FY 2005 have improved Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) tornado and analysis detection tools. The Open Radar Data Acquisition (ORDA) platform will be deployed in Builds 7 and 8, and Super Resolution WSR-88D data will be added to the ORDA in Build 9. Super resolution data provides forecasters the capability to view more precise images of tornadic signatures on radar displays, enabling earlier decisions on tornado warning, and reducing false alarms. |