The Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting
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Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I

March 2008


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Table of Contents File Formats
Entire Report
Front Matter
List of Authors
Federal Advisory Committee
Acknowledgments
Abstract
Executive Summary
1.0. Why Study Climate Change Impacts on Transportation?
1.1. The Climate is Changing
1.2. How Will Changes in Climate Affect Transportation?
1.2.1. What are the Challenges to Research?
1.3. State of Science Regarding Climate Change Impacts on Transportation
1.3.1. Overview of State of Practice
1.3.2. Major Sponsors Conducting Related Research
1.3.3. State of Technical Analysis
1.3.4. Impacts, Assessment, and Adaptation
1.3.5. Direct Climate Impacts on Transportation Addressed in Existing Literature
1.3.6. Indirect Climate Impacts on Transportation Addressed in Existing Literature
1.3.7. Decision Making Processes and Tools
1.4. Conclusions Drawn from Current Literature on the State of Research
1.5. Gulf Coast Study Selection, Objectives, and Organization
1.5.1. Study Selection
1.5.2. Gulf Coast Study Objectives and Three Phases
1.5.3. Study Organization and Oversight
1.5.4. Characterizing Uncertainty
1.6. Sources
1.6.1. References
1.6.2. Background Sources
2.0. Why Study the Gulf Coast?
2.1. Overview of the Study Region
2.1.1. Regional and National Significance
2.1.2. Study Area Boundaries
2.1.3. Structure of This Chapter
2.2. The Transportation System in the Gulf Coast Region
2.2.1. Overview of the Intermodal Transportation System in the Gulf Coast Region
2.2.2. Modal Characteristics
2.3. Gulf Coast Physical Setting and Natural Environment
2.3.1. Geomorphology
2.3.2. Current Elevation and Subsidence
2.3.3. Sediment Erosion, Accretion, and Transport
2.3.4. Land Use and Land Cover
2.4. Social and Economic Setting
2.4.1. Population and Development Trends
2.4.2. Employment, Businesses, and Economic Drivers
2.4.3. Societal Vulnerability
2.5. Conclusions
2.6. Sources
2.6.1. References
2.6.2. Background Sources
3.0. How is the Gulf Coast Climate Changing?
3.1. Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff
3.1.1. Historical Data Sources
3.1.2. General Circulation Model Applications for the Study Area
3.1.3. Water-Balance Model
3.1.4. Temperature and Runoff Trends
3.1.5. General Circulation Model Results and Future Climate Scenarios
3.1.6. Changes in Daily Temperature
3.1.7. Changes in Specific Temperature Maxima Affecting Transportation
3.1.8. Increasing Daily Precipitation Extremes
3.2. Hurricanes and Less Intense Tropical Storms
3.2.1. Assessing Trends in Historical Hurricane Frequency and Intensity
3.2.2. Gulf Coast Hurricane History
3.2.3. HURASIM:  Model Application
3.2.4. Historical Storm Frequency across the Northern Gulf Coast Study Region
3.2.5. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Hurricane Landfall
3.2.6. Patterns of Hurricane Wind Direction
3.2.7. Modeling Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones into the 21st Century
3.3. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence
3.3.1. Historical and Projected Global Sea Level Trends
3.3.2. Tide Records, Sea Level Trends, and Subsidence Rates along the Central Gulf Coast
3.3.3. Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Central Gulf Coast Region
3.4. Storm Surge
3.4.1. Predicting Storm Surge with the SLOSH Model
3.4.2. Future Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Height
3.5. Other Aspects of Climate Change with Implications for Gulf Coast Transportation
3.5.1. Wind and Wave Regime
3.5.2. Humidity and Cloudiness
3.5.3. Convective Activity
3.6. Conclusions
3.7. References
4.0. What are the Implications of Climate Change and Variability for Gulf Coast Transportation?
4.1. Climate Drivers and their Impacts on the Transportation System
4.1.1. Effects of Warming Temperatures
4.1.2. Effects of Precipitation Levels and Patterns
4.1.3. Relative Sea Level Rise
4.1.4. Storm Activity
4.1.5. Climate Impacts on Freight Transport
4.2. Climate Impacts on Transportation Modes
4.2.1. Highways
4.2.2. Transit
4.2.3. Freight and Passenger Rail
4.2.4. Marine Facilities and Waterways
4.2.5. Aviation
4.2.6. Pipelines
4.2.7. Implications for Transportation Emergency Management
4.3. Impacts and Adaptation:  Case Examples in the Study Region
4.3.1. Impacts of Hurricane Katrina on Transportation Infrastructure
4.3.2. Evacuation during Hurricane Rita
4.3.3. Elevating Louisiana Highway 1
4.4. Conclusions
4.5. Sources
4.5.1. References
4.5.2. Background Sources
5.0. How Can Transportation Professionals Incorporate Climate Change in Transportation Decisions?
5.1. Considering Climate Change in Long-Range Planning and Investment
5.1.1. Overview of the Surface Transportation Planning and Investment Processes
5.1.2. Current State of Practice in Incorporating Climate Change Considerations
5.1.3. Challenges and Opportunities to Integrating Climate Information
5.2. Conceptual Framework for Assessing Potential Impacts on Transportation
5.2.1. Factors of Concern:  Exposure, Vulnerability, Resilience, and Adaptation
5.2.2. Framework for Assessing Local Climate Change Impacts on Transportation
5.3. Conclusions
5.4. Sources
5.4.1 References
5.4.2 Background Sources
6.0. What are the Key Conclusions of this Study?
6.1. Trends in Climate and Coastal Change
6.2. Transportation Impacts
6.3. Implications for Planning
6.4. Future Needs
6.5. References
Appendix A:  Gulf Coast Study GIS Datasets
Appendix B:  Additional Data on Social and Economic Setting
Appendix C:  Additional Rail Data
Table C.1 Freight rail facilities in the Gulf Coast study area
Table C.2 Amtrak facilities in the Gulf Coast study area
Appendix D:  Water Balance Model Procedures
Appendix E:  HURASIM Model Description
Figure E.1 Graphic user interface of the HURASIM model displaying storm track and windfield reconstruction of Hurricane Katrina (2005) at landfall south of New Orleans, LA.
Appendix F:  Projecting Future Sea Level Rise with the SLRRP Model
Figure F.1 User interface and simulated graph of historical sea level rise from a sample SLRRP model application displaying the pop-up windows for selecting tide gauge stations and constructing a sea level function based on local subsidence
Figure F.2 User interface and simulated graph of historical sea level rise from a sample SLRRP model application displaying the pop-up window for selecting a GCM model and SRES emissions scenario
Figure F.3 User interface and simulated graph of future sea level rise from a sample SLRRP model application displaying the historical trend line, datum relationship, and maximum historical storm surge stage for the selected tide gauge location
Figure F.4 Sample flood graph displaying flood timing and extent based on the hydroperiod or percent of days within a calendar year that flooding is likely to occur for a given land elevation and sea level rise projection
List of Selected Acronyms
Glossary of Terms
List of Tables
1.1. Impacts of climate change on transportation identified in the literature, 1987-2006
2.1. Study area counties and Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) codes
2.2. Gulf Coast study area centerline miles of highway, by classification and ownership
2.3. Equipment, annual service, and passengers for fixed-route bus operations in the study area, 2004
2.4. Freight railroads in the Gulf Coast study area
2.5. Domestic and international waterborne tonnage of study area ports, 2003
2.6. Tonnage on study area inland and coastal waterways, 2003
2.7. Passenger enplanements and cargo tonnage for select commercial service and industrial airports in the study area, 2005
2.8. Land use of the central Gulf Coast study area as defined by the 1992 National Land Cover Dataset
2.9. Top 10 industries in the study area by employment percentage, 2000
3.1. Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century
3.2. United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations within the seven climate divisions of the central Gulf Coast region
3.3. List of GCMs run with the three SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) for this study
3.4. Scenarios of temperature change (°C) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles for the A1B scenario for 2050 relative to 1971-2000 means
3.5. Scenarios of precipitation change (percent) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles for the A1B scenario for 2050 relative to 1971-2000 means
3.6. Scenarios of temperature change (°C) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles for the A2 scenario for 2050 relative to 1971-2000 means
3.7. Scenarios of precipitation change (percent) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles for the A2 scenario for 2050 relative to 1971-2000 means
3.8. Scenarios of temperature change (°C) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles for the B1 scenario for 2050 relative to 1971-2000 means
3.9. Scenarios of precipitation change (percent) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles for the B1 scenario for 2050 relative to 1971-2000 means
3.10. Days above 32.2 °C (90 °F) and mean daily temperature in the study area for datasets running through 2004
3.11. Modeled outputs of potential temperature increase (°C [°F]) scenarios for August
3.12. Saffir-Simpson Scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and damage potential
3.13. GCM model-selection options based on data availability for the USGS SLRRP and CoastClim models for generating future sea level rise projections
3.14. USGS SLRRP model results showing the mean land surface elevations subject to coastal flooding for the Gulf Coast region by 2050 and 2100
3.15. Regional grid cell counts and normalized indices of sea level rise relative to global mean sea level projections for northern Gulf Coast tide gage locations by different GCM models used in CoastClim simulations
3.16. CoastClim model results showing the mean sea level rise (cm) for the Gulf Coast region by 2050 and 2100
3.17. Seven SLOSH basin codes, name descriptions, and storm categories included in the central Gulf Coast study region and simulation trials from Mobile, AL, to Galveston, TX
3.18. SLRRP model parameters and results showing the mean sea level rise projections for the Gulf Coast region by 2050 and 2100
4.1. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) modeled by using SLRRP
4.2. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) modeled by using CoastClim
4.3. Relative sea level rise impacts on Gulf Coast transportation modes: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.4. Storm surge impacts on Gulf Coast transportation modes: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.5. Relative sea level rise impacts on highways:  percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.6. Storm surge impacts on highways: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.7. Relative sea level rise impacts on rail: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.8. Railroad-owned and -served freight facilities in the Gulf Coast study region at elevation of 122 cm (4 ft) or less
4.9. Vulnerability from sea level rise and storm surge by rail distance and number of facilities
4.10. Storm surge impacts on rail: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.11. Amtrak stations projected to be impacted by storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft)
4.12. Relative sea level rise impacts on ports: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.13. Storm surge impacts on ports: percentage of facilities vulnerable
4.14. FAA recommended runway lengths for hypothetical general aviation airport
4.15. Summary of impacts of temperature change to runway length (general aviation) under three climate scenarios
4.16. Commercial aircraft runway length takeoff requirements
4.17. Airports located on 100-year flood plains
4.18. Gulf Coast study area airports vulnerable to submersion by relative sea level rise of 61 to 122 cm (2 to 4 ft)
4.19. Gulf Coast study area airports vulnerable to storm surge
4.20. Hurricane impacts on toll revenue in Florida
5.1. Urbanized area metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) in the Gulf Coast study area
5.2. Level of decision maker concern about climate stressors
List of Figures
1.1. Gulf coast study design
1.2. Lexicon of terms used to describe the likelihood of climate outcomes
2.1. Map of study area, which extends from Mobile, AL, to Houston/Galveston, TX
2.2. Study area counties and Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) codes
2.3. Metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) in the study area
2.4. Combined truck flows shipped domestically from Louisiana, 1998
2.5. Navigable inland waterways impacting the study area, shown as named waterways
2.6. National network of Class I railroads
2.7. Intermodal facilities in the study area
2.8. Highways in the study area
2.9. Total and truck annual vehicle miles of travel (VMT) on nonlocal roads, 2003
2.10. Nonlocal bridges in the study area
2.11. Freight railroad traffic density (annual millions of gross ton-miles per mile) in the study area
2.12. Sunset Limited route map, Houston, TX, to Mobile, AL, segment
2.13. Freight handling ports and waterways in the study area
2.14. Barge tow on the Mississippi River
2.15. Study area airports
2.16. Surface geology of the southeastern United States
2.17. Relative elevation of counties in the study area
2.18. Map of terrestrial ecoregions within and adjacent to the study area
2.19. U.S Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas within the study area
2.20. Population density in study area, 2004
2.21. Estimated population change in study area, 2000 to 2005
2.22. Mean travel time to work in the study area
2.23. Manufacturers’ shipments in thousands of dollars, 1997
2.24. Social vulnerability index for the study area
2.25. Persons in poverty in the study area
2.26. Persons aged 65 and older in the study area
3.1. CO2 emissions, SO2 emissions, and atmospheric CO2 concentration through 2100 for the six “marker/illustrative” SRES scenarios and the IS-92a scenario
3.2. United States climate divisions of the central Gulf Coast study area
3.3. Grid area for the GCM temperature and precipitation results presented in Section 3.1.5 of this report
3.4. Scatterplot of seasonal temperature and precipitation predictions by an ensemble of GCMs for the Gulf Coast region in 2050 created by using the SRES A1B emissions scenario
3.5. Temperature variability from 1905 to 2003 for the seven climate divisions making up the Gulf Coast study area
3.6. Precipitation variability from 1905 to 2003 for the seven climate divisions making up the Gulf Coast study area
3.7. Variability and trends in model-derived surplus (runoff) and deficit from 1919 to 2003 for the Gulf Coast study area
3.8. Probability density functions for seasonal temperature change in the Gulf Coast study area for 2050 created by using the A1B emissions scenario
3.9. Probability density functions for seasonal precipitation change in the Gulf Coast study area for 2050 created by using the A1B emissions scenario
3.10. Quantile estimates of monthly precipitation for the 2- to 100-year return period
3.11. Quantile estimates of monthly average runoff for the 2- to 100-year return period
3.12. Quantile estimates of monthly average deficit for the 2- to 100-year return period
3.13. The change in the warmest 10 percent of July maximum and minimum temperatures at each station across the entire United States , for 1950-2004
3.14. Historical time series from stations within 500 km of Dallas, TX, showing anomalies of the number of days above 37.7°C (100°F), for 1950-2004
3.15. The current and future probabilities of having 1 to 20 days during the summer at or above 37.8°C (100°F) in or near Houston, TX
3.16. Mean model predicted change (°C) of the 20-year return value of the annual maximum daily averaged surface air temperature
3.17. Number of times on average, over a 20-year period, that the 1990-1999 annual maximum daily averaged surface air temperature 20-year return value levels would be reached
3.18. Mean model-predicted fractional change of the 20-year return value of the annual maximum daily averaged precipitation
3.19. Geographic distribution of hurricane landfalls along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions of the United States , from 1950 to 2006
3.20. Frequency histogram of landfalling storms of tropical storm strength or greater in Grand Isle, LA, summarized on a 5-year basis, for the period 1851-2005
3.21. Hemispherical and global mean sea surface temperatures for the period of record 1855 to 2000
3.22. Sea surface temperature trend in the main hurricane development region of the North Atlantic during the past century
3.23. Sea surface temperature trend in the Gulf of Mexico region produced by using the ERSST v.2 database
3.24. The location and intensity of Hurricane Katrina at intervals of 6 hours show two intensification events
3.25. Frequency histogram of tropical storm events for coastal cities across the Gulf of Mexico region of the United States over the period of record from 1851 to 2006
3.26. Frequency analysis of storm events exhibiting Category 1, 2, and 3 winds or higher across the Gulf Coast study area
3.27. Latitudinal gradient of declining storm frequency of Category 1 hurricanes or greater from Grand Isle, LA, inland
3.28. Storm frequency variation for 15-, 30-, and 50-year intervals for Category 1 storms or greater for the most active grid location across the Gulf Coast study region
3.29. Simulated wind rows and direction of wind force derived from the HURASIM model for one of the most active grid cell locations in the study area at Grand Isle, LA
3.30. Potential increase in the number of hurricanes by the year 2050 and 2100
3.31. Tide gauge records and mean sea level trend line for three northern Gulf Coast tide stations at Pensacola, FL, Grand Isle, LA, and Galveston, TX
3.32. Merged results of Category 2 through 5 hurricane surge simulations of a slow- moving storm approaching from the southeast
3.33. Color schemes illustrate the difference in surge inundation between a Category 3 and Category 5 storm approaching the southeastern Louisiana coast from the southeast
3.34. Comparison of lidar and National Digital Elevation Data (DEM) for eastern Cameron Parish, LA
3.35. Trend in summer wave height (1978-2005) in the mid-Gulf of Mexico
4.1. Highways at risk from a relative sea level rise of 61 cm (2 ft)
4.2. Highways at risk from a relative sea level rise of 122 cm (4 ft)
4.3. National Highway System (NHS) Intermodal Connectors at risk from a relative sea level rise of 122 cm (4 ft)
4.4. Hurricane Katrina damage to U.S Highway 90 at Bay St. Louis, MS
4.5. Highways at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft)
4.6. Highways currently at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 7.0 m (23 ft)
4.7. National Highway System (NHS) intermodal connectors at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 7.0 m (23 ft)
4.8. Fixed bus routes at risk from a relative sea level rise of 122 cm (4 ft), New Orleans, LA
4.9. Fixed transit guideways at risk from a relative sea level rise of 122 cm (4 ft), Houston and Galveston, TX
4.10. Fixed transit guideways at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), New Orleans, LA
4.11. Fixed transit guideways at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), Houston and Galveston, TX
4.12. Fixed bus routes at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), New Orleans, LA
4.13. Fixed bus routes at risk from storm surge at elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), Houston and Galveston, TX
4.14. Rail lines at risk due to relative sea level rise of 61 and 122 cm (2 and 4 ft)
4.15. Railroad-owned and -served freight facilities at risk due to relative sea level rise of 61 and 122 cm (2 and 4 ft)
4.16. Rail lines at risk due to storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft)
4.17. Railroad-owned and -served freight facilities at risk due to storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft)
4.18. Amtrak facilities at risk due to storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft)
4.19. Freight handling ports facilities at risk from relative sea level rise of 61 and 122 cm (2 and 4 ft)
4.20. Freight handling ports facilities at risk from storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft)
4.21. Boeing 757-200 takeoff runway requirements for design purposes
4.22. Gulf Coast study area airports at risk from storm surge
4.23. Landside pipelines having at least one GIS link located in an area of elevation 0 to 91 cm (3 ft) above sea level in the study area
4.24. Evacuation route highways potentially vulnerable from storm surge of 5.5 m (18 ft)
4.25. Risks to Amtrak Facilities due to relative sea level rise and storm surge
4.26. Population over age 65 impacted by Hurricane Katrina
4.27. Airports affected by Hurricane Katrina winds
5.1. How will climate change affect transportation decisions?
5.2. SAFETEA-LU planning factors
5.3. Steps in the transportation planning process
5.4. Relationship of transportation planning timeframe and infrastructure service life to increasing climate change impacts
5.5. A risk-assessment approach to transportation decisions
5.6. Degree of risk and importance of system or facility performance inform the level of adaptation investment