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Front Matter |
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List of Authors |
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Federal Advisory Committee |
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Acknowledgments |
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Abstract |
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Executive Summary |
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1.0. Why Study Climate Change Impacts on Transportation? |
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1.1. The Climate is Changing |
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1.2. How Will Changes in Climate Affect Transportation? |
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1.2.1. What
are the Challenges to Research? |
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1.3. State of Science Regarding Climate Change Impacts on Transportation |
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1.3.1. Overview
of State of Practice |
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1.3.2. Major
Sponsors Conducting Related Research |
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1.3.3. State
of Technical Analysis |
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1.3.4. Impacts,
Assessment, and Adaptation |
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1.3.5. Direct
Climate Impacts on Transportation Addressed in
Existing Literature |
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1.3.6. Indirect
Climate Impacts on Transportation Addressed in
Existing Literature |
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1.3.7. Decision
Making Processes and Tools |
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1.4. Conclusions Drawn from Current Literature on the State of Research |
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1.5. Gulf Coast Study Selection, Objectives, and Organization |
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1.5.1. Study
Selection |
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1.5.2. Gulf
Coast Study Objectives and Three
Phases |
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1.5.3. Study Organization
and Oversight |
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1.5.4. Characterizing
Uncertainty |
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1.6. Sources |
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1.6.1. References |
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1.6.2. Background
Sources |
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2.0. Why Study the Gulf Coast? |
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2.1. Overview of the Study Region |
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2.1.1. Regional
and National Significance |
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2.1.2. Study
Area Boundaries |
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2.1.3. Structure
of This Chapter |
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2.2. The Transportation System in the Gulf Coast Region |
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2.2.1. Overview of the Intermodal Transportation System in the Gulf Coast Region |
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2.2.2. Modal
Characteristics |
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2.3. Gulf Coast Physical Setting and Natural Environment |
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2.3.1. Geomorphology |
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2.3.2. Current Elevation and Subsidence |
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2.3.3. Sediment
Erosion, Accretion, and Transport |
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2.3.4. Land
Use and Land Cover |
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2.4. Social and Economic
Setting |
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2.4.1. Population
and Development Trends |
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2.4.2. Employment,
Businesses, and Economic Drivers |
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2.4.3. Societal
Vulnerability |
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2.5. Conclusions |
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2.6. Sources |
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2.6.1. References |
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2.6.2. Background
Sources |
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3.0. How is the Gulf Coast Climate Changing? |
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3.1. Temperature, Precipitation, and Runoff |
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3.1.1. Historical
Data Sources |
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3.1.2. General
Circulation Model Applications for the Study Area |
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3.1.3. Water-Balance
Model |
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3.1.4. Temperature
and Runoff Trends |
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3.1.5. General
Circulation Model Results and Future Climate Scenarios |
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3.1.6. Changes
in Daily Temperature |
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3.1.7. Changes
in Specific Temperature Maxima Affecting Transportation |
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3.1.8. Increasing
Daily Precipitation Extremes |
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3.2. Hurricanes and Less Intense Tropical Storms |
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3.2.1. Assessing
Trends in Historical Hurricane Frequency and Intensity |
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3.2.2. Gulf
Coast Hurricane History |
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3.2.3. HURASIM: Model Application |
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3.2.4. Historical
Storm Frequency across the Northern Gulf
Coast
Study Region |
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3.2.5. Temporal
and Spatial Analysis of Hurricane Landfall |
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3.2.6. Patterns
of Hurricane Wind Direction |
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3.2.7. Modeling
Climate Change Effects on Tropical Cyclones into the
21st Century |
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3.3. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence |
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3.3.1. Historical
and Projected Global Sea Level Trends |
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3.3.2. Tide
Records, Sea Level Trends, and Subsidence Rates along the Central Gulf Coast |
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3.3.3. Sea
Level Rise Scenarios for the Central Gulf
Coast Region |
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3.4. Storm Surge |
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3.4.1. Predicting
Storm Surge with the SLOSH Model |
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3.4.2. Future
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge
Height |
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3.5. Other Aspects of Climate Change with Implications for
Gulf Coast Transportation |
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3.5.1. Wind
and Wave Regime |
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3.5.2. Humidity
and Cloudiness |
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3.5.3. Convective
Activity |
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3.6. Conclusions |
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3.7. References |
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4.0. What are the Implications of Climate Change and Variability for Gulf Coast Transportation? |
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4.1. Climate Drivers and their Impacts
on the Transportation System |
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4.1.1. Effects
of Warming Temperatures |
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4.1.2. Effects
of Precipitation Levels and Patterns |
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4.1.3. Relative
Sea Level Rise |
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4.1.4. Storm
Activity |
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4.1.5. Climate
Impacts on Freight Transport |
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4.2. Climate Impacts on Transportation Modes |
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4.2.1. Highways |
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4.2.2. Transit |
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4.2.3. Freight
and Passenger Rail |
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4.2.4. Marine Facilities
and Waterways |
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4.2.5. Aviation |
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4.2.6. Pipelines |
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4.2.7. Implications
for Transportation Emergency Management |
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4.3. Impacts and Adaptation: Case Examples in the Study Region |
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4.3.1. Impacts
of Hurricane Katrina on Transportation Infrastructure |
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4.3.2. Evacuation
during Hurricane Rita |
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4.3.3. Elevating
Louisiana Highway 1 |
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4.4. Conclusions |
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4.5. Sources |
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4.5.1. References |
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4.5.2. Background
Sources |
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5.0. How Can Transportation Professionals Incorporate Climate Change in Transportation Decisions? |
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5.1. Considering Climate Change in Long-Range Planning and
Investment |
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5.1.1. Overview
of the Surface Transportation Planning
and Investment Processes |
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5.1.2. Current
State of Practice in Incorporating
Climate
Change Considerations |
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5.1.3. Challenges
and Opportunities to Integrating Climate Information |
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5.2. Conceptual Framework for Assessing Potential Impacts on
Transportation |
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5.2.1. Factors
of Concern: Exposure, Vulnerability,
Resilience,
and Adaptation |
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5.2.2. Framework
for Assessing Local Climate Change Impacts
on Transportation |
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5.3. Conclusions |
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5.4. Sources |
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5.4.1 References |
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5.4.2 Background Sources |
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6.0. What are the Key Conclusions of this Study? |
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6.1. Trends in Climate and Coastal Change |
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6.2. Transportation Impacts |
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6.3. Implications for Planning |
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6.4. Future
Needs |
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6.5. References |
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Appendix
A: Gulf
Coast Study GIS Datasets |
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Appendix
B: Additional Data on Social and
Economic Setting |
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Appendix C: Additional Rail Data |
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Table C.1 Freight rail facilities in the Gulf Coast study area |
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Table C.2 Amtrak facilities in the Gulf Coast study area |
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Excel
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CSV
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Appendix D: Water Balance Model Procedures |
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Appendix E: HURASIM Model Description |
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Figure E.1 Graphic user interface of the HURASIM model displaying storm track and windfield reconstruction of Hurricane Katrina (2005) at landfall south of New Orleans, LA. |
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Appendix F: Projecting Future Sea Level Rise with the SLRRP Model |
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Figure F.1 User interface and simulated graph of historical sea level rise from a sample SLRRP model application displaying the pop-up windows for selecting tide gauge stations and constructing a sea level function based on local subsidence |
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Figure F.2 User interface and simulated graph of historical sea level rise from a sample SLRRP model application displaying the pop-up window for selecting a GCM model and SRES emissions scenario |
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Figure F.3 User interface and simulated graph of future sea level rise from a sample SLRRP model application displaying the historical trend line, datum relationship, and maximum historical storm surge stage for the selected tide gauge location |
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Figure F.4 Sample flood graph displaying flood timing and extent based on the hydroperiod or percent of days within a calendar year that flooding is likely to occur for a given land elevation and sea level rise projection |
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List
of Selected Acronyms |
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Glossary
of Terms |
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List of Tables |
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1.1. Impacts of climate change on
transportation identified in the literature,
1987-2006 |
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Excel (54KB) |
CSV (21KB) |
2.1. Study area counties and Federal
Information Processing Standard
(FIPS) codes |
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Excel (20KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
2.2. Gulf Coast study area centerline
miles of highway, by classification and
ownership |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
2.3. Equipment, annual service, and
passengers for fixed-route bus operations in the study area, 2004 |
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Excel (19KB) |
CSV (2KB) |
2.4. Freight railroads in the Gulf Coast study area |
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Excel (20KB) |
CSV (4KB) |
2.5. Domestic
and international waterborne tonnage of study area ports, 2003 |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
2.6. Tonnage on study area inland and
coastal waterways, 2003 |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
2.7. Passenger enplanements and cargo
tonnage for select commercial service and industrial airports in the study
area, 2005 |
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Excel (20KB) |
CSV (2KB) |
2.8. Land use of the central Gulf Coast study area as defined
by the 1992 National Land Cover Dataset |
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Excel (18KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
2.9. Top 10 industries in the study area by
employment percentage, 2000 |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.1. Projected global average surface
warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.2. United
States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations within the seven climate
divisions of the central Gulf Coast region |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.3. List
of GCMs run with the three SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) for this
study |
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Excel (18KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.4. Scenarios of temperature change (°C)
from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th,
75th, and 95th percentiles for the A1B scenario for 2050
relative to 1971-2000 means |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.5. Scenarios of precipitation change
(percent) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th,
75th, and 95th percentiles for the A1B scenario for 2050
relative to 1971-2000 means |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.6. Scenarios of temperature change (°C) from
an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th,
75th, and 95th percentiles for the A2 scenario for 2050
relative to 1971-2000 means |
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HTML (3KB) |
Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.7. Scenarios of precipitation change
(percent) from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th,
75th, and 95th percentiles for the A2 scenario for 2050
relative to 1971-2000 means |
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HTML (3KB) |
Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.8. Scenarios of temperature change (°C) from
an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th,
75th, and 95th percentiles for the B1 scenario for 2050
relative to 1971-2000 means |
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HTML (3KB) |
Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.9. Scenarios of precipitation change (percent)
from an ensemble of GCMs for the 5th, 25th, 50th,
75th, and 95th percentiles for the B1 scenario for 2050
relative to 1971-2000 means |
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HTML (3KB) |
Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.10. Days above 32.2 °C (90 °F) and mean
daily temperature in the study area for datasets running through 2004 |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.11. Modeled outputs of potential temperature
increase (°C [°F]) scenarios for August |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.12. Saffir-Simpson Scale for categorizing
hurricane intensity and damage potential |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.13. GCM model-selection options based on
data availability for the USGS SLRRP and CoastClim models for generating future
sea level rise projections |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.14. USGS SLRRP model results showing the
mean land surface elevations subject to coastal flooding for the Gulf Coast
region by 2050 and 2100 |
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Excel (18KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.15. Regional grid cell counts and normalized
indices of sea level rise relative to global mean sea level projections for
northern Gulf Coast tide gage locations by different GCM models used in
CoastClim simulations |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.16. CoastClim model results showing the mean
sea level rise (cm) for the Gulf Coast region by 2050 and 2100 |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.17. Seven SLOSH basin codes, name
descriptions, and storm categories included in the central Gulf Coast study
region and simulation trials from Mobile, AL, to Galveston, TX |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
3.18. SLRRP model parameters and results
showing the mean sea level rise projections for the Gulf Coast region by 2050
and 2100 |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.1. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) modeled
by using SLRRP |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.2. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) modeled
by using CoastClim |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.3. Relative sea level rise impacts on
Gulf Coast transportation modes: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.4. Storm surge impacts on Gulf Coast
transportation modes: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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HTML (2KB) |
Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.5. Relative sea level rise impacts on
highways: percentage of
facilities vulnerable |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.6. Storm
surge impacts on highways: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.7. Relative
sea level rise impacts on rail: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.8. Railroad-owned
and -served freight facilities in the Gulf Coast study region at elevation of
122 cm (4 ft) or less |
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Excel (19KB) |
CSV (2KB) |
4.9. Vulnerability
from sea level rise and storm surge by rail distance and number of facilities |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.10. Storm
surge impacts on rail: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.11. Amtrak
stations projected to be impacted by storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23
ft) |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.12. Relative
sea level rise impacts on ports: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.13. Storm
surge impacts on ports: percentage of facilities vulnerable |
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HTML (1KB) |
Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.14. FAA
recommended runway lengths for hypothetical general aviation airport |
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Excel (18KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.15. Summary
of impacts of temperature change to runway length (general aviation) under
three climate scenarios |
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Excel (19KB) |
CSV (2KB) |
4.16. Commercial
aircraft runway length takeoff requirements |
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Excel (23KB) |
CSV (4KB) |
4.17. Airports
located on 100-year flood plains |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.18. Gulf
Coast study area airports vulnerable to submersion by relative sea level rise
of 61 to 122 cm (2 to 4 ft) |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
4.19. Gulf Coast study area airports
vulnerable to storm surge |
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Excel (21KB) |
CSV (3KB) |
4.20. Hurricane
impacts on toll revenue in Florida |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
5.1. Urbanized
area metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) in the Gulf Coast study area |
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Excel (17KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
5.2. Level
of decision maker concern about climate stressors |
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Excel (16KB) |
CSV (1KB) |
List of Figures |
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1.1. Gulf
coast study design |
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1.2. Lexicon
of terms used to describe the likelihood of climate outcomes |
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2.1. Map of study area, which extends from Mobile, AL,
to
Houston/Galveston, TX |
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2.2. Study area counties and
Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) codes |
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2.3. Metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) in the study area |
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2.4. Combined truck flows shipped domestically from Louisiana, 1998 |
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2.5. Navigable inland waterways impacting the study area, shown
as named waterways |
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2.6. National network of Class I railroads |
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2.7. Intermodal facilities in the study area |
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2.8. Highways in the study area |
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2.9. Total and truck annual vehicle miles of travel (VMT) on nonlocal roads, 2003 |
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2.10. Nonlocal bridges in the study area |
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2.11. Freight railroad traffic density (annual millions of gross
ton-miles per mile) in the study area |
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2.12. Sunset
Limited route map, Houston, TX, to Mobile, AL, segment |
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2.13. Freight handling ports and waterways in the study area |
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2.14. Barge tow on the Mississippi
River |
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2.15. Study area airports |
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2.16. Surface geology of the southeastern
United States |
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2.17. Relative
elevation of counties in the study area |
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2.18. Map of terrestrial ecoregions within and adjacent to
the study area |
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2.19. U.S Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas within the study
area |
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2.20. Population density in study area, 2004 |
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2.21. Estimated population change in study area, 2000 to 2005 |
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2.22. Mean travel time to work in the study area |
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2.23. Manufacturers’ shipments in thousands of dollars, 1997 |
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2.24. Social vulnerability index for the study area |
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2.25. Persons in poverty in the study area |
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2.26. Persons aged 65 and older in the study area |
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3.1. CO2 emissions, SO2 emissions, and atmospheric CO2 concentration through 2100 for the six “marker/illustrative” SRES scenarios and
the IS-92a scenario |
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HTML (1KB) |
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3.2.
United States climate divisions of the central Gulf Coast study area |
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3.3. Grid area for the GCM temperature and precipitation results
presented in Section 3.1.5 of this report |
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3.4. Scatterplot of seasonal temperature and precipitation
predictions by an ensemble of GCMs for the Gulf Coast region in 2050 created by
using the SRES A1B emissions scenario |
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3.5. Temperature variability from 1905 to 2003 for the seven climate
divisions making up the Gulf Coast study area |
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3.6. Precipitation variability from 1905 to 2003 for the seven climate
divisions making up the Gulf Coast study area |
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3.7. Variability and trends in model-derived surplus (runoff)
and deficit from 1919 to 2003 for the Gulf Coast study area |
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3.8. Probability density functions for seasonal temperature
change in the Gulf Coast study area for 2050 created by using the A1B emissions
scenario |
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3.9. Probability density functions for seasonal precipitation
change in the Gulf Coast study area for 2050 created by using the A1B emissions
scenario |
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3.10. Quantile estimates of monthly precipitation for the 2- to
100-year
return period |
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3.11. Quantile estimates of monthly average runoff for the 2- to
100-year
return period |
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3.12. Quantile estimates of monthly average deficit for the 2- to
100-year
return period |
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3.13. The change in the warmest 10 percent of July maximum and
minimum temperatures at each station across the entire
United States , for 1950-2004 |
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3.14. Historical time series from stations within 500 km of Dallas, TX,
showing anomalies of the number of days above 37.7°C (100°F), for 1950-2004 |
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3.15. The current and future probabilities of having 1 to 20 days
during the summer at or above 37.8°C (100°F) in or near Houston, TX |
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3.16. Mean model predicted change (°C) of the 20-year return value
of the annual maximum daily averaged surface air temperature |
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3.17. Number of times on average, over a 20-year period, that the
1990-1999 annual maximum daily averaged surface air temperature 20-year return
value levels would be reached |
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3.18. Mean model-predicted fractional change of the 20-year return
value of the annual maximum daily averaged precipitation |
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3.19. Geographic distribution of hurricane landfalls along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions of the
United States , from 1950 to 2006 |
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3.20. Frequency histogram of landfalling storms of tropical storm
strength or greater in Grand Isle, LA, summarized on a 5-year basis, for the
period 1851-2005 |
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3.21. Hemispherical and global mean sea surface temperatures for
the period of record 1855 to 2000 |
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3.22. Sea surface temperature
trend in the main hurricane development region of the North Atlantic during the past century |
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3.23. Sea surface temperature trend in the Gulf of Mexico region produced by using the ERSST v.2 database |
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3.24. The location and intensity of Hurricane Katrina
at intervals of 6 hours show two intensification events |
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3.25. Frequency histogram of tropical storm
events for coastal cities across the Gulf
of Mexico region of the
United States over the period of record from 1851 to 2006 |
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3.26. Frequency analysis of storm events
exhibiting Category 1, 2, and 3 winds or higher across the Gulf Coast study area |
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3.27. Latitudinal gradient of declining storm
frequency of Category 1 hurricanes or greater from Grand Isle, LA, inland |
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3.28. Storm frequency variation for 15-, 30-,
and 50-year intervals for Category 1 storms or greater for the most active grid
location across the Gulf Coast study region |
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3.29. Simulated wind rows and direction of
wind force derived from the HURASIM model for one of the most active grid cell
locations in the study area at Grand Isle, LA |
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3.30. Potential increase in the number of hurricanes
by the year 2050 and 2100 |
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3.31. Tide gauge records and mean sea
level trend line for three northern Gulf Coast tide stations at Pensacola, FL,
Grand Isle, LA, and Galveston, TX |
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3.32. Merged results of Category 2 through 5
hurricane surge simulations of a slow- moving storm approaching from the
southeast |
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3.33. Color schemes illustrate the difference
in surge inundation between a Category 3 and Category 5 storm approaching the
southeastern Louisiana coast from the southeast |
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3.34. Comparison of lidar and National Digital Elevation Data (DEM)
for eastern Cameron Parish, LA |
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3.35. Trend in summer wave height (1978-2005) in the mid-Gulf of Mexico |
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4.1. Highways at risk from a relative sea level rise of 61 cm (2
ft) |
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4.2. Highways at risk from a relative sea level rise of 122 cm (4
ft) |
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4.3. National Highway System (NHS) Intermodal Connectors at risk from a relative
sea level rise of 122 cm (4 ft) |
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4.4. Hurricane Katrina damage to U.S Highway 90 at Bay St.
Louis, MS |
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4.5. Highways at risk from storm surge at elevations currently
below 5.5 m (18 ft) |
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4.6. Highways currently at risk from storm surge at elevations currently
below 7.0 m (23 ft) |
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4.7. National
Highway System (NHS) intermodal connectors at risk from storm
surge at elevations currently below 7.0 m (23 ft) |
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4.8. Fixed bus routes at risk from a relative sea level rise of
122 cm (4 ft), New
Orleans, LA |
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4.9. Fixed transit guideways at risk from a relative sea level
rise of 122 cm (4 ft), Houston and Galveston, TX |
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4.10. Fixed transit guideways at risk from storm surge at
elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), New Orleans, LA |
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4.11. Fixed transit guideways at risk from storm surge at
elevations currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), Houston and Galveston, TX |
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4.12. Fixed bus routes at risk from storm surge at elevations
currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), New Orleans, LA |
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4.13. Fixed bus routes at risk from storm surge at elevations
currently below 5.5 m (18 ft), Houston and Galveston, TX |
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4.14. Rail lines at risk due to relative sea level rise of 61 and
122 cm (2 and 4 ft) |
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4.15. Railroad-owned and -served freight facilities at risk due to
relative sea level rise of 61 and 122 cm (2 and 4 ft) |
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4.16. Rail lines at risk due to storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18
and 23 ft) |
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4.17. Railroad-owned and -served freight facilities at risk due to
storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft) |
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4.18. Amtrak facilities at risk due to storm surge of 5.5 and 7.0 m
(18 and 23 ft) |
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4.19. Freight handling ports facilities at risk from relative sea
level rise of 61 and 122 cm (2 and 4 ft) |
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4.20. Freight handling ports facilities at risk from storm surge of
5.5 and 7.0 m (18 and 23 ft) |
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4.21. Boeing 757-200 takeoff runway requirements for design
purposes |
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4.22. Gulf Coast study area airports at risk from storm surge |
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4.23. Landside pipelines having at least one GIS link located in an
area of elevation 0 to 91 cm (3 ft) above sea level in the study area |
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4.24. Evacuation route highways potentially vulnerable from storm
surge of 5.5 m (18 ft) |
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4.25. Risks to Amtrak Facilities due to relative sea level rise and
storm surge |
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4.26. Population over age 65 impacted by Hurricane Katrina |
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4.27. Airports affected by Hurricane Katrina winds |
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5.1. How will climate change affect transportation decisions? |
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5.2. SAFETEA-LU planning factors |
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5.3. Steps in the transportation planning process |
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5.4. Relationship of
transportation planning timeframe and infrastructure service life to increasing
climate change impacts |
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5.5. A risk-assessment approach to transportation decisions |
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5.6. Degree of risk and importance of system or facility
performance inform the level of adaptation investment |
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