STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

HEARING ON

“VOLCANIC HAZARDS – IMPACTS ON AVIATION”

BEFORE THE

COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE AND TRANSPORTATION SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREDICTION

UNITED STATES SENATE

MARCH 16, 2006

This Statement for the Record will provide a brief background on the impacts of volcanic ash on aviation, and highlight the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) role in mitigating the impact of volcanic hazards on aviation.

Impact on Aviation

With the advent of modern fuel-efficient commercial jet aircraft engines and the increase in flights worldwide, routine volcanic eruptions, which previously had been only a minor inconvenience to commercial aviation, have become a major hazard. When fine silica particles lofted into the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions come into contact with jet engines, the particles melt from the heat of the engine and become hard deposits on the turbine blades. These deposits can eventually result in a loss of power or emergency shut-down of the engine. Because aircraft are capable of moving at several hundred miles an hour, the ash particles also act as projectiles. These particles cause abrasion to the aircraft, damaging windshields, fuselage, and critical instrumentation on the outside of the aircraft. The ash can also enter the aircraft’s cabin and ventilation systems.

The aviation industry is greatly impacted by the hazards posed from volcanic ash. More than 80 commercial aircraft worldwide have unexpectedly encountered volcanic ash in flight and at airports in the past 15 years. Seven of these encounters caused in-flight loss of jet engine power, which nearly resulted in the crash of the airplane. These incidents highlight the vulnerability of aircraft to volcanic ash clouds.

The national and international aviation communities have taken action to help aircraft avoid such dangerous environments. In the mid-1990s, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and NOAA reached an agreement whereby NOAA monitors satellite imagery and data to detect volcanic eruptions and, in the event of an ash eruption, issues advisories and warnings for the aviation community. NOAA also runs computer simulations to forecast the dispersion of volcanic ash. NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) work in a strong partnership to monitor and mitigate the effects of volcanoes on aviation.

Airspace managers, in consultation with airlines, pilots, and others in the aviation community, have developed a course of action in the event of impending encounter with volcanic ash. The common goal is to completely avoid the ash cloud. To accomplish this, airspace managers determine new flight paths for the aircraft based on the location of the ash cloud and its projected path. There are “safety zones” near ash clouds which range from a few miles to several hundred miles based on forecast uncertainty and winds. Minor deviations can cost the airlines in the order of tens of thousands of dollars, while significant re-routes, which include landing at alternate airports, can cost airlines hundreds of thousands of dollars or more per flight.

Timely and accurate observation, forecast, and warning information is crucial to the aviation community for safety and economic reasons. The aviation industry is moving toward a minimum of five minutes lead time to be notified of an explosive volcanic eruption. Such an eruption can send its ash high into the atmosphere reaching flight level in about five minutes, potentially impacting en route jet traffic. Research continues to develop better tools for forecasters to provide faster and more accurate detection of eruptions.

NOAA Operations

Major volcanic events during the 1980s and into the early 1990s helped to bring the global community together to help mitigate the hazards of volcanic ash. By 1997, the ICAO established nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) as part of a global network. NOAA currently operates two of these nine VAACs. The Washington D.C. VAAC is jointly managed by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) and NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). The Anchorage, Alaska, VAAC is managed by NWS and co-located with the NWS Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU).

The Washington VAAC area of responsibility includes the continental United States, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America to 10 degrees south latitude. It also includes U.S. controlled oceanic Flight Information Regions (FIRs). The Anchorage VAAC area of responsibility includes the Anchorage FIR and a portion of eastern Russia (north of 60°N latitude and east of 150°E longitude).

The role of the VAAC is to monitor all available satellite, radar, and other observational data (e.g. Pilot Reports) to determine the location, extent and movement of volcanic plumes. VAACs use this information to issue real-time text and graphical products about airborne volcanic ash to the aviation community. The centers use volcanic ash dispersion model predictions to assist in making a forecast of these ash plumes out to 18 hours. The dispersion model predicts where the volcanic ash will spread over time and this information is then relayed to the user community. Information about the volcano, including a detailed forecast of the ash plume, is included in a Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA). VAACs provide this information to international Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs), which in turn issue Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMETs) to the aviation community. The SIGMET is the official warning product for airborne volcanic ash.

There are dozens of MWOs around the globe, ostensibly one for each country, or one designated by a country as an MWO. These offices are established under an ICAO agreement, with three designated in the United States located at the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, the Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu, and the AAWU in Anchorage. MWOs are responsible for issuing SIGMETs warning the aviation community about atmospheric hazards to aircraft, including volcanic ash, turbulence, large areas of thunderstorms, icing, and tropical cyclones.

The NWS also issues volcanic ash products for the national airspace managers in the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC). Center Weather Advisories are produced by NWS Center Weather Service Units (CWSU), which are collocated at 21 ARTCCs. NOAA products and information are distributed widely to the aviation community, private sector, U.S. military agencies, and federal, state, and local governments.

As a further service to Alaska, one of the most volcano-vulnerable areas of the United States, the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit/Anchorage VAAC, Anchorage Weather Forecast Office, and CWSU also participate in an interagency group for volcanic ash. Membership in this interagency group includes the NWS, USGS, FAA, United States Air Force, United States Coast Guard, and the State of Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. The group meets quarterly to discuss a wide variety of issues including science, research, and operations issues concerning volcanic ash. The group is also responsible for updating an Alaska Interagency Operations Plan for Volcanic Ash Episodes every 2 years, which defines the responsibilities of each of the participating agencies. The Alaska plan has become the foundation for the development of a new National Interagency Volcanic Ash Plan.

Active Volcanoes

The Anchorage VAAC has just over 100 historically active volcanoes contained both within and in close proximity to the Anchorage FIR. In 2005, there were several active volcanoes both within and in close proximity to the Anchorage VAAC area of responsibility. These volcanoes included Veniaminof and Cleveland in the Aleutian Islands and Karymsky, Sheveluch, Bezymianny, and Klyuchevskoy in Kamchatka, Russia. In 2006, only Augustine Volcano located just 175 miles southwest of Anchorage has become active starting on January 11. A series of emissions continued throughout February. As Augustine is close to the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage, the State of Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, USGS, FAA, NWS, State of Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, Municipality of Anchorage Health and Human Services, and others have worked closely together during these events to help mitigate potential impacts from the eruptions. This collaborative partnership between numerous agencies at different levels was coordinated by the NWS National Volcanic Ash Program Manager, who is located at the NWS Alaska Region Headquarters in Anchorage, AK.

In 2005, the following volcanoes within the Washington VAAC area of responsibility were active; Mount St. Helens in Washington State; Colima and Popocatepetl in Mexico; Soufriere Hills on Montserrat Island; Anatahan volcano on the Mariana Islands chain; Santa Maria and Fuego in Guatemala; Santa Ana in El Salvador; Reventador, Tungurahua, and Sangay in Ecuador; Galeras in Colombia; and Negra, Sierra, and Fernandina on the Galapagos Islands. So far in 2006, six volcanoes have been active including Colima, Popocatepetl, Reventador, Santa Maria, Soufriere Hills and Tungurahau. Ash from volcanoes located within the Anchorage VAAC area of responsibility, such as Augustine volcano, can move into the Washington VAAC area of responsibility, requiring detailed additional coordination and requiring the Washington VAAC to issue volcanic ash advisories.

Volcanic Ash Dispersion Models

NOAA’s Air Research Laboratory (ARL) continues to improve volcanic ash modeling with the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. The HYSPLIT model is NOAA’s official dispersion model and was developed by researchers at NOAA in partnership with the external community. When the Washington or Anchorage VAAC detects an eruption in their area, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction is notified and runs the HYSPLIT model. The dispersion model predicts where the volcanic ash will spread over time and this information is relayed to VAACs, as well as the user community. By tracking volcanic ash and forecasting where it will spread, NOAA is helping to reduce the risk volcanic eruptions pose to aviation.

Research and Improvements

The research community is very involved in the volcanic ash hazards program. NOAA has made many contributions during the past decade. A prime example of this effort is the development of multi-spectral volcanic ash image products using Polar Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) data, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua and Terra spacecraft. The FAA Aviation Weather Research Program is also working on a multi-sourced automated 3-dimensional analysis of volcanic ash clouds. Here ‘multi-sourced’ refers to the use of multiple satellites (geostationary and polar-orbiting) and multiple ash detection and height estimation methods (according to viewing wavelengths available, time of day, scene characteristics, etc.). Sensors on NOAA’s GOES and POES satellites are able to detect a volcanic ash eruption within minutes of an event.  In some instances, these satellites are the only means by which NOAA meteorologists know a volcanic ash hazard exists in the airspace.  To build on current satellite contributions to NOAA's volcanic ash activities, NOAA's future GOES and NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System) will continue these detection capabilities. NOAA supplements its operations using data from NASA Aqua, Terra, and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) spacecraft, and foreign satellites, as needed.

New guidance and products resulting from this research is tailored to aviation needs and is focused on making the national airspace system safer and more efficient during a volcanic ash event. Efforts are focused on integrating the latest advancements in volcanic ash detection and dispersion from the research community, allowing users to overlay and manipulate this information in real-time, developing tools to generate impact statements and graphics, and disseminating the impact statements to end users in a timely fashion so hazard mitigation plans can be activated.

The Volcanic Ash Collaboration Tool (VACT) is an experimental tool designed to help locate and determine the extent and movement of volcanic ash so that more accurate, timely, consistent, and relevant ash dispersion and ash fallout watches, warnings, advisories, and forecasts can be issued. The VACT allows users at different sites and with different expertise to simultaneously view identical displays of volcanic ash and other related data sets (i.e. shared situational awareness) and collaborate in real-time. The VACT assists forecasts in preparing and issuing current products and services and will also make possible future products such as graphical tactical decision aides for airspace management. The VACT has been successfully tested in operations in Alaska during the recent eruptions of Augustine volcano.

All volcanic ash events are captured and archived to help improve detection and dispersion methodologies, train new users on VACT functionality, detect and eliminate problems with multiple agencies collaborating in real-time on volcanic ash events, and improve dissemination techniques.

Future efforts will focus on incorporating the VACT to adjacent VAAC’s operations so information isn’t lost as ash moves across the globe. The text chat capability will be extended to be multilingual. As new detection, fallout, and dispersion techniques are created, they will be integrated into the tool. New capabilities in dissemination technology are also planned to be incorporated into the VACT. Such a tool also shows great promise to allow interagency coordination for other hazards such as tsunamis and hurricanes, and also represents a capability to allow NOAA scientists to brief other decision-makers, the media, etc.