TESTIMONY OF
FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE
BEFORE THE
COMMITTEE ON COMMERCE, SCIENCE AND TRANSPORTATION
SUBCOMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS
UNITED STATES SENATE
Good morning, Senator Vitter, Senator
Lautenberg and members of the Subcommittee.
I am James R. Mahoney, Assistant Secretary of Commerce and Deputy
Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). I am also appearing today in my capacity as
Director of the federal interagency Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). I am very pleased to have this opportunity to
describe the progress of the Administration’s climate science program as well
as the NOAA Climate Program and its contribution to CCSP.
President
George W. Bush recognizes climate change to be an important issue for the
The Climate Change Science Program integrates federal research on global change and climate change, as sponsored by thirteen federal agencies (the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy (DOE), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of State, the Department of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, Health and Human Services, the Department of Transportation, the Department of Defense, U.S. Agency for International Development, and the Smithsonian Institution), and with liaisons in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality, the National Economic Council and the Office of Management and Budget.
We know that the surface of the Earth is warmer, and that an increase in greenhouse gases caused by humans is contributing to the problem. Research conducted through CCSP is deepening our understanding of the interplay of natural and human-caused forces. CCSP is charged with investigating natural and human-induced changes in the Earth’s global environmental system; monitoring important climate parameters; predicting global change; and providing a sound scientific basis for national and international decision-making.
Since CCSP was created, the program has successfully integrated a wide range of research, climate science priorities and budgets of the thirteen CCSP agencies. With an approximately $2 billion annual expenditure, CCSP has taken on the most challenging questions in climate science and is developing products to convey the most advanced state of knowledge to be used by federal, state and local decision makers, resource managers, the science community, the media, and the general public. We have identified several methods to address these challenges. I briefly describe the steps we have already taken, the scientific advances we have achieved, and our future directions.
Inventory of
Research Programs: A comprehensive
interagency inventory of climate and global change research programs was
initiated in May 2002 and has been updated annually since then. This essential stocktaking exercise (the
first conducted in several years) enhanced coordination, efficiency, and
effectiveness of the entire research effort.
All CCSP agencies participated in this inventory.
CCSP Strategic Plan: In July 2003, CCSP released its Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, the first comprehensive update of a national plan for climate and global change research since the original U.S. Global Change Research Program strategy was issued at the inception of the program in 1990.
We took several steps to ensure that the Plan received extensive public input and scientific review. The Administration released a CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan for public review in November 2002. The Discussion Draft outlined a comprehensive, collaborative approach for developing a deeper understanding of climate change and its potential impacts. It was guided by the priority information needs identified by scientists and stakeholders, both nationally and internationally.
External comments, obtained
through several mechanisms, played an important role in revising the draft plan. First, CCSP held a workshop in December 2002
that was attended by 1,300 scientists and other participants, including
individuals from 47 states and 36 nations.
This workshop was designed to facilitate extensive discussion and
comments on the draft plan. In addition,
written comments on the Discussion Draft were
submitted during a public review period, and amounted to nearly 900 pages of
input. Last, CCSP commissioned a special
committee of the NRC to review the plan.
The NRC conveyed its comments and recommendations on the Discussion
Draft in a February 2003 report.
After consideration of the
extensive external input and internal interagency review process, the (revised)
Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program was released in July 2003. In February 2004, the NRC review committee
issued a second public report, Implementing
Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change
Science Program Strategic Plan. This
NRC report expressed the committee’s conclusions on the content, objectivity,
quality, and comprehensiveness of the updated Strategic Plan, on the process
used to produce the Plan, and on the proposed process for developing subsequent
findings to be reported by the CCSP. The
following quote is taken from the Executive Summary of the 2004 NRC report:
“The Strategic Plan for the
We have frequently noted that the CCSP Strategic Plan is a living
document and we look forward to continued dialogue with Congress, the NRC, the
scientific community, and the public throughout the implementation of the Plan,
as the science evolves and priorities change over time.
Annual Program Report, Our Changing Planet: Our Changing Planet is an
annual report of the CCSP. This program
report is issued as a Supplement to the President's Fiscal Year budgets and
submitted to Congress pursuant to a requirement of the 1990 Global Change
Research Act. The document is intended
to provide summaries and related budget data of ongoing CCSP-supported climate
change work.
CCSP Assessment
Information to Support Decision-Making: The CCSP Strategic Plan identified three broad types
of deliverables to be produced in support of enhanced policy development and
decision-making by national and regional government officials, resource
managers, planners, and the scientific community.
1) Synthesis
and Assessment Products: Twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment Products
are identified in the Strategic Plan. These reports are designed to address a full range of
scientific questions and evaluate options for responses that are of greatest
relevance to decision and policy makers and planners. These products are intended to provide the
best possible state of scientific information, developed by a diverse group of
climate experts, for the decision community.
In response to an April 14, 2005 Government Accountability Office (GAO)
report, Congressional inquiries, and our own internal assessment, on July 15 we
presented to this Committee and other interested Members, a revision of the
schedule and scope of the Synthesis and Assessment Products. We look forward to further dialogue with you
on these important issues.
2) Adaptive
management and planning for resources and infrastructure: “Adaptive management decisions” are
operational decisions, principally for managing infrastructure (e.g., waste
water treatment systems), natural and managed resources (e.g., water supply,
agriculture), and societal response mechanisms (e.g., health alerts). They typically occur within existing
frameworks (e.g., legal, institutional, economic), usually recurring on annual
or shorter time scales. “Planning”
focuses on these and additional sectors (e.g., urban or regional planning),
typically involving development of infrastructure and institutions with long
lifetimes (several decades or more), and with decision processes over long
timescales (years to decades). CCSP
research results, data products, forecasts, and model results are already being
applied to adaptive management and planning in a number of regional and
sectoral case studies. Specific examples
include climate observations and projections for crop management, water quality
management, and urban planning, as well as integrated products illustrating
snowpack, precipitation, streamflow, and the potential for drought
conditions.
3) Support for policy making: As described in the Strategic Plan, CCSP is focusing on two objectives in the area of support for policy makers: (1) developing scientific syntheses and analytical frameworks to support integrated evaluations, and (2) initially conducting a limited number of case studies with evaluation of the lessons learned, to guide future analyses. Integrated analysis of climate change is essential for bringing together research from many contributing disciplines and applying it to gain comparative insight into policy-related questions. Full integration of information including research on human activities, greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, land-use and land-cover change, cycling of carbon and other nutrients, climatic responses, and impacts on people, the economy, and resources is necessary for analyses of many important questions about the potential economic and environmental implications of changing greenhouse gas concentrations and various technology portfolios. Specific examples of this type of work under CCSP include the DOE Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Research Program that sponsors research to develop comprehensive benefit/cost models for use in assessing the implications of potential climate change policies. NOAA, EPA, and NSF sponsor additional studies to improve aspects of such models and to allow for the application of the models to address particular questions.
Scientific Advancements: CCSP has
supported a highly integrated array of Earth system observations as well as a
broad set of new scientific information.
A large bibliography of new peer-reviewed scientific studies reflecting
the advances in climate change detection, attribution, and projection,
described below, will be reported in the upcoming edition of Our Changing Planet, and these studies
will be reflected in the relevant CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.
Detection:
CCSP-sponsored observational and scientific studies have more completely
characterized the nature of observed increase in surface temperatures, and have
significantly advanced our understanding of observed variability in ocean
salinity and heat content. CCSP research
has also investigated changes in the global distributions of snowfall and
snowpack and natural fluctuations in ocean circulation that influence the
transport of heat and energy around the globe.
Building on the CCSP
observations and monitoring strategy identified in its Strategic Plan, the
Attribution: CCSP research also works to establish and understand the most likely causes for
climate change, with special emphasis on distinguishing between natural
variability and human-induced effects.
Recent advances in attribution research include the use of additional
variables in climate models (e.g., salinity, runoff, and regional-scale
attribution) to obtain more
insight on the origin of the climate signals and trends, as well as
expansion of climate models to include improved representation of aerosols
(airborne fine particles) and variability in solar energy output. These climate models, which have been
produced for CCSP, include improved representations of physical processes and
increased resolution to effort to enhance our climate modeling
capabilities.
Projection: Through
climate projections, CCSP attempts to present scientifically justifiable
illustrations of the future climate and its potential impacts upon key elements
of the Earth system. We are working in
conjunction with the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) to update
greenhouse gas emissions scenarios that incorporate improved socio-economic
data and consider expanded use of emerging technological options. These scenarios are being used with a new
generation of climate models to develop improved climate projections for
consideration by decision-makers.
Expanded CCSP/NRC Advisory
Contract: CCSP has recently expanded its contract with the NRC
to incorporate important new elements of NRC advice to the program. The enhanced NRC advisory assignment involves
three areas:
1) Overall NRC advice on the CCSP research program on a
continuing basis over the next three years, involving an NRC committee with
wide areas of expertise;
2) A comparative evaluation of relevant previous climate
change assessments conducted around the world, to provide background
information for the assessments being prepared by CCSP in compliance with the
GCRA; and
3) Designated support from two existing committees of the
NRC that are well positioned to support CCSP with expertise in areas central to
CCSP’s core responsibilities, the Climate Research Committee and the Committee
on the Human Dimensions of Global Change.
The
Administration has endorsed the scope of the expanded contract to ensure that
CCSP receives independent and credible scientific advice, as CCSP continues to
implement its Strategic Plan.
Climate
Change Science Program Workshop: Climate
Science in Support of Decision-Making: CCSP will hold a public workshop November
14-16, 2005, in
NOAA is responsible for
developing and making accessible climate information products and services for
near-term issues such as drought management and long-term issues such as
potential effects of climate change on managed and natural ecosystems. As a mission agency, NOAA has a direct
responsibility to provide climate information, products, and services that
enable us to understand and respond to changing climate conditions.
The NOAA Climate
Program goals are aligned with the CCSP goals outlined in the CCSP Strategic
Plan. Climate is one of NOAA’s four
mission goals; it is designed to produce
two outcomes. First, a predictive
understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades
with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned
decisions; and second, a climate-literate public effectively incorporating
NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions. These outcomes are achieved through the
following programs that are described in our FY 2006 Budget:
·
The Climate and
Global Change (CGC) program goal is to establish a national information
service based on reliable assessments and quantitative predictions of changing
global climate in partnership with the university community. CGC will help NOAA provide high-quality
predictions and assessments to the public and private sectors, other Federal
and state agencies, and the international community. The near-term objective is to provide
reliable predictions of global climate changes, both natural and human-induced,
and their associated human effects on time scales ranging from seasons to that
of a century or more. The Climate and
Global Change Program is an important part of CCSP. Activities include atmospheric composition,
carbon cycle, physical climate research, analysis of the climate record,
climate predictions on time scales of seasonal, interannual, and decadal, and
regional integrated sciences and assessments.
·
The Climate
Observations and Services (COS) program supports the development of the
information and insights needed to help reduce impacts to the Nation from
climate variations and change. We do
this by monitoring the Earth’s climate system, delivering data, developing
predictions and impact assessments, and continuing performance-enhancing
research. This is an integrated,
multi-line organization activity within NOAA and involves the Office of Oceanic
and Atmospheric Research, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service, and the National Weather Service. The program involves an important transition
of research observing and data systems into operational systems and
products. NOAA activities supporting the
Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) are also administered under the
Climate Observations and Services program.
Activities under this program include atmospheric and ocean
observations, data assimilation and data management, transition of the Tropical
Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) buoy array from
research to operations, and assessments of climate change and variability (i.e., Stratospheric Ozone,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products). NOAA
is leading the production of seven of the 21 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products called for in the CCSP Strategic Plan, and is contributing to eleven
others.
·
The Arctic
Research Program (ARP) is coordinated with other
·
Partnership Programs cover a wide range of activities with a multitude of external research
partners. These partnerships extend to
other parts of NOAA; other Federal, state, and local government entities;
international government programs; universities; and industry.
NOAA Leads Implementation of a National Integrated
Drought Information System (NIDIS): In a letter to the President on August 30, 2004, the
Western Governor's Association recommended a team led by NOAA begin
implementation of the National Integrated Drought Information System
(NIDIS). NOAA is coordinating with
stakeholders, states, and federal agencies to implement NIDIS. NIDIS goals include fostering and supporting
research, creating an early drought warning system, providing interactive
delivery systems, providing a framework for interacting with and educating
decision makers and the public, and developing an understanding of the impacts
and data needs at the local level.
NOAA Implemented
International Climate/Air Quality Field Study: NOAA is
helping to lead and implement a multi-agency air quality and climate study
performed under the auspices of the International Consortium for Atmospheric
Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT), which was initiated in New
England in summer of 2004 (New England Air Quality - Intercontinental Transport
and Chemical Transformation Study).
Colleagues from five nations are engaged in the endeavor, which extended
from the western
NOAA Contributes to
Increased Understanding of Regional Weather and Climate Patterns: NOAA
successfully completed the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) 2004 field
campaign in collaboration with other
NOAA Implements an
Operational Critical Climate Forecast System: In August 2004, a global ocean
and atmosphere coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) became operational at the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction of the National Weather
Service. The Climate Forecast System is
a fully coupled model representing the interactions between the Earth's oceans
and atmosphere. These interactions are
critical for determining climate on seasonal time scales. This implementation is a recent example of a
successful transition of research into operations through long-term, ongoing
collaborative efforts by NOAA scientists, other Federal Agencies (NASA, NSF),
and the university research community.
NOAA Supports Development
of Urban Climate Planning Website: NOAA has supported the development of the
Climate Change Information Resource for the New York Metropolitan Area
(CCIR-NY), a website (http://ccir.ciesin.columbia.edu/nyc) that includes
information tools developed for decision-makers and those interested in
planning for climate in an urban environment.
Users of CCIR-NY include city, municipal, and county planners; natural
resource managers; transportation managers; water managers; waste managers;
educators and citizens. In addition to
providing basic information about climate in the NYC area, the website serves
as a forum for users to share expertise and information related to climate
change and variability in the NY metropolitan area. The website is serving as an international
model for the development of similar web tools in
NOAA Contributes to
Operational Seasonal Wildland Fire Outlooks: In FY 2003, NOAA
helped to support the first operational annual nationwide fire assessment
workshop, bringing together climatologists, predictive service meteorologists,
fire analysts, and wildland fire managers from state and federal agencies
across 11 geographic area coordination centers.
The result was to begin production of climate-informed, regional- and
national-scale seasonal fire potential outlooks for the
NOAA Advances Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction
Capabilities: Due to our advanced observing systems
(TOGA/TAO and satellites) as well as over ten years of research and operational
innovation, NOAA has recently developed the capability to make skillful
NOAA Provides Weather and Climate
Products to the FEWS Network: The
International Weather and Climate Monitoring Project at NOAA's
NOAA Supports RANET: The RAdio and InterNET
for the Communication of Hydro-Meteorological Information for Rural Development
(RANET) program is an international collaboration with based funding from USAID
and NOAA to make weather and seasonal information available to remote
populations in developing countries in Africa,
NOAA Climate Program Budget for FY 2006
The NOAA Climate Program is
requesting $239.9 million in FY 2006, reflecting a net increase of $19.6M over
the FY 2006 base level. This increase
includes $10.6M for the high priority Climate Change Research Initiative
(CCRI); $7.4M to reactivate activities requested under Climate Observations and
Services (COS) in the FY 2005 President’s Budget; and $1.6M to restore funding
requested in FY 2005 for other ongoing climate activities.
This
increase responds to the long-term observational requirements of climate
predictions and assessments. Funding to
reactivate COS activities will ensure continuation of climate observing
networks, such as the highly regarded Climate Reference Network (CRN) and
NOAA’s Baseline Observatories. NOAA will
be able to ensure critical monitoring of long-term trends in important climate
variables and to improve forecasting capabilities and applications development
over timescales from weeks to seasons.
These programs serve as a
foundation for NOAA’s participation in CCSP by funding important research and
key observations and thereby reducing uncertainties in climate change
science. These increases also support
the objective in the Department of Commerce Strategic Plan to “Advance
understanding and predict changes in the Earth’s environment to meet
NOAA will continue building
and maintaining a global ocean observing system; initiate a new five-year
effort to better understand of how aerosols influence climate by their
interaction with clouds; expand the Tropical Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) buoy array
into the Indian Ocean; conduct new studies to better explain the causes for
observed climate variability and change; and continue expanding and refining
regional integrated research and outreach.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman and members of the committee. I look forward to the opportunity to respond to any questions you may have.