| Variable2 | Women 45 Years of Age | Women 55 Years of Age | Women 65 Years of Age | Women 75 Years of Age | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted 5-year risk of breast cancer, %3 | No Family history | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | |
| Family history | 1.6 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | ||
| Benefits per 1,000 women over 5 y of tamoxifen therapy | Cases of invasive breast cancer avoided, n | No Family history | 3-4 | 5-6 | 7-8 | 8 |
| Family history | 8 | 11-12 | 16 | 17 | ||
| Cases of noninvasive breast cancer avoided, n | No Family history | 1-2 | 2 | 2-3 | 2-3 | |
| Family history | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 5-6 | ||
| Hip fractures avoided, n4 | <1 | 3 | 5 | 15 | ||
| Harms per 1000 women over 5 y of tamoxifen therapy | Cases of endometrial cancer caused, n4 | 1-2 | 12 | 21 | 22 | |
| Strokes caused, n4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 20 | ||
| Pulmonary emboli caused, n4 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 9 | 18 | ||
| Cases of deep venous thrombosis caused, n4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | ||
1 These estimates are based on the Gail model, outcomes from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial, and baseline rates of harms from Gail et al.1
2 No family history = no first-degree relatives with breast cancer; family history = 1 first-degree relative with breast cancer.
3 Based on menarche at 12 years of age, first birth at 22 years of age, and no history of breast biopsy, as calculated from the Gail model.
4 Modified from Gail, et al.1
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