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2000 Progress Report: Effects of natural and anthropogenic processes on Tillamook Bay and its watershed: An integrated process study and land-use perspective
EPA Grant Number: R825751Title: Effects of natural and anthropogenic processes on Tillamook Bay and its watershed: An integrated process study and land-use perspective
Investigators: McManus, James , Ford, M. Jesse , Komar, Paul , Smith, Courtland
Institution: Oregon State University
EPA Project Officer: Perovich, Gina
Project Period: October 1, 1997 through September 30, 2000 (Extended to September 30, 2001)
Project Period Covered by this Report: October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000
Project Amount: $749,995
RFA: Water and Watersheds (1997)
Research Category: Water and Watersheds
Description:
Objective:There are five major rivers draining into Tillamook Bay that drain similar geologic terrain; however, the land-use practices vary significantly among the different riverine watersheds. One river runs through the urban center of Tillamook, whereas the river to the south is heavily influenced by dairy farming activities. The northern-most three rivers experience progressively less urban and agricultural activities within their lower watersheds. Within the framework of examining the relative influence of different watershed activities on processes occurring within the Tillamook basin, we proposed to test four specific hypotheses: (1) land-use practices have significantly altered the sedimentary budget of the Tillamook Bay watershed; (2) carbon, nutrient, and trace metal cycles are significantly different among the five major river systems feeding the Tillamook estuary because of the different land use practices; (3) differences in land use management practices between the Tillamook and Kilchis River subbasins of the Tillamook Bay watershed have led to quantifiable differences in aquatic ecosystem health and biotic integrity in the riverine and stream environments of these subbasins; and (4) social, temporal, and experiential context best explain differences between local knowledge and scientific observation, and actions to clarify knowledge contexts can resolve differences. Progress Summary:
Our research directed toward completing the above detailed tasks is nearly complete. We have shown that at present, as recorded in the surface sediments of the Bay, the sediment contribution is approximately 50 percent riverine and 50 percent beach. Down core the proportion of beach sand increases significantly, and we have suggested that this larger proportion of beach sand in the past was produced by the year 1700 subduction earthquake and tsunami. This major tectonic event has obscured the impacts humans have had in sediment delivery to the Bay. Estuarine processes have mixed the sands derived from the five rivers to such an extent that it is no longer possible to identify the grain sizes contributed by the three other rivers. In our continuing research we are focusing on analyses of the watersheds themselves in an attempt to establish sediment yields and how they would have been affected by human alterations of the environment.
Wadeable portions of the Tillamook river network (lower-gradient, higher land-use) are dominated by sculpin species, where those of the Kilchis River a (higher-gradient, negligible land use) are dominated by salmonids, primarily cutthroat and steelhead trout. Winter steelhead are still currently stocked in the Kilchis River, however, which muddies the story. Objective data reduction techniques applied to physical habitat and fish assemblage data result in different classifications of the 52 sites surveyed. Work is currently underway to increase our understanding of these systems by adding the data from both benthic macroinvertebrates and periphyton, as well as to incorporate data from co-investigators
The National Research Council (NRC, 1996) recommends evaluating incentive-based approaches to environmental regulation to replace command-and-control measures. The NRC further recommends use of comparative examples that combine natural scientific study with risk assessment and benefit-cost analysis.
Landowners in the Tillamook Basin, Oregon have 150 years of adapting to natural processes that pose risks of flooding, tidal currents, wind and wave action, fire, disease, earthquake, and tsunami. In addition, land uses have contributed to water quality problems that affect the ecology of Tillamook Bay, particularly oyster growing and fishing.
Our research on sediments, water chemistry, ecosystem health, and social science has identified a number of situations in which landowners make risk-benefit calculations. The results of these calculations include building the dairy industry and a major commercial area in the flood plain. Another is platting a destination tourist resort on a sand spit breached by ocean waves. In trying to explain these decisions, we find landowners conducted their own risk-benefit calculations, employed technology to minimize risk, and accepted higher risk because of ignorance.
Why do many landowners make decisions that appear to go against natural processes? One hypothesis is they are ignorant of the affects of natural processes. A second hypothesis is they think technology can overcome the forces of nature. A third hypothesis is they make a risk-benefit calculation. Data support each of these hypotheses, but risk-benefit calculations explain more than the others.
These hypotheses were tested in a number of situations in the Tillamook Basin. For example, historical evidence shows a pattern of learning about the affects of natural processes, the use of technology to minimize risk, and most of all, calculated risk taking. Learning began in the 1850s when the first settlers brought dairy cattle to the area. The dairy industry persists because of risk calculations made by dairy owners about relative economic impacts of water quality problems and the probability of floods wiping out their herds.
The dairy industry is the biggest contributor of fecal coliform to the Bay, which is closed to oyster harvest approximately 100 days per year. Agriculture persists because the risk of major reductions in fecal coliform levels is far greater than the oyster harvest and fishing benefits. Further, much of the science as to causes and processes is still uncertain.
The other major natural threat to agriculture is flooding. Here the effort is to make modifications in the basin to move floodwaters out as quickly as possible and keep the number of milkings missed to fewer than six. Losing more than this number of milkings means the loss of productive cows.
Looking at other decisions about forest, urban, and recreation land use suggests that reduction of ignorance, technological innovation, and risk-benefit calculations all affect land-use decisions. The risk-benefit calculation is typically the one hypothesis that explains most about landowner decision-making. These examples of risk-benefit analysis by local landowners responding to market incentives show that people will take risks against natural hazards. They are often ignorant of risk probabilities and these are not well communicated in the community. The risk assessments are not quantitative. Landowners seek technology believing they can armor themselves against risks. Because of ignorance and belief in the benefits of technology the risk-benefit calculation is often wrong in the short-term, but the collective result over the long-term is local adaptation to the occurrence of natural processes.
Future Activities:Future activities are mainly concerned with writing up and publishing results from the project. This includes results of place mapping sessions, social networks analysis, and analysis of landowner concerns with riparian regulations.
Journal Articles on this Report: 3 Displayed | Download in RIS Format
| Other project views: | All 57 publications | 10 publications in selected types | All 8 journal articles |
| Type | Citation | ||
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Ford J, Rose CE. Characterizing small subbasins: A case study from coastal Oregon. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2000;64(1):359-377 |
R825751 (1999) R825751 (2000) R825751 (Final) |
not available |
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Gilden J, Smith C. Assets to move watershed councils from assessment to action. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2002;38(3):653-662. |
R825751 (2000) R825751 (Final) R827146 (2000) R827146 (Final) |
not available |
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Smith CL. Institutional mapping of Oregon coastal watershed management options. Ocean & Coastal Management 2002;45(6-7):357-375. |
R825751 (1999) R825751 (2000) |
not available |
watersheds, land, estuary, ecological effects, organics, bacteria, restoration, habitat, waste reduction, public policy, community-based, socioeconomic, social science, Pacific Northwest, Oregon, OR, EPA Region 10, business, agriculture, forestry, oyster farming. , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, Water, Geographic Area, Scientific Discipline, Waste, RFA, Ecosystem/Assessment/Indicators, Water & Watershed, Social Science, Northwest, Ecological Indicators, Watersheds, Ecological Effects - Environmental Exposure & Risk, Ecosystem Protection, Contaminated Sediments, Ecology and Ecosystems, Geochemistry, geology, runoff, water quality, watershed restoration, ecology assessment models, ecosystem health, natural processes, land use, contaminated sediment, ecological exposure, anthropogenic processes, aquatic ecosystems, integrated assessment, sediment transport, nutrient transport, bioassessment, integrated process study, Tillamook Bay, watershed assessment, ecological condition, ecological effects, ecological health
Relevant Websites:
http://www.co.tillamook.or.us/gov/Estuary/homepage.htm
Progress and Final Reports:
1999 Progress Report
Original Abstract
Final Report