A look at occupational employment trends to the year 2000, (EXCERPT), Monthly Labor Review Online, September 1987

A look at occupational employment
trends to the year 2000

George T. Silvestri and John M. Lukasiewicz

The Nation's economy is projected to generate more than 21 million jobs between 1986 and 2000. While a considerable number, this 19-percent increase is only about half the average annual rate of increase that occurred over the previous 14-year period, 1972 to 1986. (See table 1.) An accompanying article by Valerie Personick, pp. 30-45, discusses the projected changes in the industrial composition of employment. Our article presents the 1986-2000 occupational projections.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets of occupational projections, with each set tied to the high, moderate, or low economic and industry employment projections alternatives presented elsewhere in this issue of the Review. However, the basic changes in the occupational structure of the economy from 1986 to 2000 among the three alternatives are similar. Thus, for ease of presentation, we focus on the moderate alternative, because the discussion would be similar if either of the other scenarios was highlighted. The major differences among the alternatives are discussed briefly at the end of the article.

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